Tribune. Can we still morally and politically buy gas from Russia when Vladimir Putin’s army is crushing Ukraine, besieging Kyiv, bombing entire cities, subjecting civilians to terrible torture, to whom we provide support, which we never cease to remember.
Admittedly, a decision has been made at the European level to impose tough sanctions on leaders and a significant number of oligarchs, which calls into question investments (such as Nord Stream 2) and reduces trade between Russia and the rest of the world. The exclusion of a significant volume of transactions from the financial system and the blows to Russian banks are also taking their toll. But for obvious reasons related to our dependence (40% on the European Union), gas and oil supplies were secured, and contracts with Gazprom are still strictly observed. This logic also prevails with regard to liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, which continue as if nothing had happened.
Thus, we finance the war we condemn elsewhere.
I’m measuring the impact of the European Union’s cuts in Russian gas imports for the G27 economies. There will be a double shock in prices and quantities next winter. Even if in the coming months our consumption will be provided without difficulty through supplies from other countries via a gas pipeline or an LNG tanker.
A sacrifice to be made
Should we then accept the status quo, given that we have no alternative and that we cannot, despite sincere solidarity with the Ukrainian people, pay more for our energy and risk not heating next winter? Or is it not necessary to ensure our own security and deal a serious blow to Vladimir Putin in order to radically and much faster than expected change our energy model?
Both reason and emotions prompt us to make this choice and work on it as soon as possible. For France, the goal is quite achievable, since Russian gas accounts for 20% of our consumption.
It is urgent to negotiate additional volumes with various suppliers (Norway, the Netherlands, Algeria and the USA) and increase the unloading capacity of our LNG terminal.
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And if we could not completely replace all the gas coming from Russia, we would have to limit demand. Here our courage will be tested. Because it would be inevitable to ask the French to turn down the heating next winter. These efforts may still be needed today. Remember that a 1°C drop in temperature over twelve months means 10 to 15 terawatt-hours of gas savings. I am convinced that our compatriots, aware of the threat to the world from Russia and striving to make a gesture of friendship to the Ukrainian people, whose heart is torn from suffering, would be ready for this sacrifice.
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