The European Council who are meeting today and tomorrow in Brussels have first the economy and then foreign policy on the table. The leaders will also talk about migration, but no one expects big news, also because the strategy to be followed on this matter has already been discussed at length and written in black and white in the conclusions of the Extraordinary Council of 9 February.
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As a senior EU official explains: “What matters is that we have set a course that we must now implement”. That doesn’t mean that it’s being put on hold: “Let’s keep up the pressure,” in the sense that the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the Swedish Presidency of the Council are telling the leaders about what has been done , from February 9th until today. Von der Leyen explained it in a very detailed letter on Monday evening. “The same will happen in June at the European Council – the source continues – the intention is not to reopen the discussion each time, but to implement what has already been decided.”
For Italy, there are several aspects in the updates provided by der Leyen that are noted with satisfaction, starting with the fact that EU Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni will be in Tunis on March 26th and 27th, a sign that that even at The EU has finally understood the urgency of stabilizing Tunisia. Incidentally, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is likely to emphasize the need to release the outstanding loan from the International Monetary Fund in Tunis.
Today’s European Council will be the first regular meeting of 2023, followed by the Euro Summit in an expanded format at 11 p.m. the following day. The summit will start earlier than usual at 11.30 am (the pre-summits of the major European parties will take place early in the morning: Pd Secretary Elly Schlein is also expected) for a working lunch with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, with whom there will be an exchange ” on the main geopolitical issues and global challenges”, as stated by the President of the European Council, Charles Michel.
After the usual speech by the President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, the first item on the agenda is the war in Ukraine. At the beginning of the meeting, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is connected via video conference. “As always – confirmed Michel – we will reiterate our firm pledge of support to Kiev, a pledge that includes work on war crimes ‘accountability’, the use of sanctions-frozen Russian assets and support for the international order based on the includes rules. what Americans call the American-led order.
Since the extraordinary Council meeting on February 9, the EU has been working “to urgently increase the production and supply of ammunition to Ukraine,” notes Michel. The problem is that few in Europe anticipated a long war of attrition with huge ammunition expenditures on both sides. And the European military-industrial apparatus, fragmented into many small national fiefdoms, is struggling (even the US is in fact having production problems): “Our goal is to provide Ukraine with 1 million ammunition within the next 12 months and to ensure sufficient financing”, says Michael.
The scheme of joint purchases by the European Defense Agency, adopted at the suggestion of Josep Borrell, involves long lead times: the first orders for 155mm ammunition will in any case be placed by the end of May. The average EU industry lead time for these half-ton projectiles is 12 months. Meanwhile, the European Peace Facility is being refinanced to compensate states that choose to divert ammunition to Kiev from stockpiles or orders already in progress.
Even if stockpiles are “secret information”, as a senior EU official says, after years and years of austerity and cuts in defense spending, the state of Europe’s arsenals is far from optimal: as they recently explained, Max Bergmann and Sophia Besch in Foreign Affairs, The German armed forces have stocks of ammunition sufficient for a war lasting “a few hours”, at most “a few days”. Despite these limitations, Elysee sources welcome the deal, which leaders will “endorse” in the conclusions, in part because it limits joint ammunition purchases “to European industry plus Norway.”
Now, with Russia yelling “stop” at EU enlargement with cannon fire, the need to increase arms production in Europe becomes clear: “We will have to take measures to increase the productive capacity of the European defense”, writes Michel It remains to be seen how fast the expansion of the arms production base will be, but nobody believes that it can be achieved in a few weeks.A similar problem has been experienced by the EU with anti-Covid vaccines, the mass production of which it is the EU made it possible to tame the pandemic, thanks solely to US-made big pharma giant Pfizer.
“We will do everything” to help Ukraine, says a senior EU official, but he does not go so far as to say he is “optimistic” that existing ammunition stocks and orders could be sufficient to provide Ukraine with sufficient supplies supply to arrive when EU industry will be able to produce enough armaments. But there are also the United States and Great Britain, which conspicuously support Ukraine.
In addition to Ukraine, the heads of state and government will discuss the “long-term competitiveness of the EU and the further deepening of the internal market”. For Michel, “it’s time to play to our strengths and address our shortcomings”. The Council’s conclusions on the subject are lengthy and worrying, Michel summarizes, “they examine ways to increase the EU’s innovative capacity and strengthen our Capital Markets Union” in order to “stimulate investments to strengthen our enabling technology and our green and digital transitions.” to realise”. Leaders will also hold an “in-depth exchange of views” on trade policy, given the geopolitical context.
When it comes to energy, Michel writes, “it’s still about ensuring security of supply at affordable prices”. Leaders will discuss ways to “achieve that goal.” The draft conclusions call on the Commission and Member States to prepare and draw up contingency plans in view of the “new season” of gas supplies, which will be without Russian gas, or at least with much less Russian gas than last year. All “stakeholders” are urged to “take full advantage” of the EU platform for joint gas purchases “at sustainable prices”. For Italy, we see with satisfaction that the passage on the reform of the electricity market has been tightened in time: the co-legislators are expressly asked to act “immediately” in order to ensure approval “by the end of 2023”.
A discussion on trade policy is also planned, which could take place either today or tomorrow morning. The agreement with Mercosur, which poses problems for several countries, including Italy, will probably be one of the focal points of the debate. A discussion of the motor vehicle emissions regulation is not on the agenda nor has it been prepared in Coreper (but it is not certain that it will not be discussed), the final approval of which in Coreper was stopped by a formed blocking minority of Italy, Poland, Bulgaria and Germany. Parliament has no intention of reopening the text, which was concluded in a trialogue: the legislative work is done, the difficulties lie with the Council and they have to deal with it, it is the content of the argument that is in place and Place takes place in Luxembourg.
Germany tips the scales and the Commission is negotiating with Frans Timmermans on synthetic fuels with Berlin, where the FDP Liberals, fighting in a left-wing coalition with the SPD and Greens for influence on various dossiers, are trying to recover consensus at home. “These are dynamics of German domestic politics – confirms an EU diplomatic source – we all have our own domestic politics”. For the time being, the negotiations are only taking place between the Commission and Germany, as confirmed by FI MEP Massimiliano Salini. In the case of biofuels, dear Italy, there are currently no openings. Regardless of how it will end, our country will still vote against the regulation, as the Minister of Economic Development, Adolfo Urso, has clearly said, also to “send a signal”.
It is very likely that this “signal” will also be repeated by the Prime Minister, maybe even in today’s European Council. Giorgia Meloni is to underline Italy’s critical stance on various aspects of the Green Deal, which, on the other hand, was conceived on the assumption that energy prices would fall after the end of the Covid-19 pandemic. It didn’t happen because Vladimir Putin attacked Ukraine.
From car exhaust regulations to greenhouses, there are various pieces of legislation that pose problems for a manufacturing country whose citizens are very inclined to invest their savings in real estate. Aside from the various nuances that each political party rejects in its own way, Italy has never had ultra-ecological governments. The founder of Ulivo Romano Prodi himself was very critical of the regulation of car emissions, the heart of the mechanical industry in northern Italy. However, tomorrow at 11pm is the day of the Euro Summit with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, and Paschal Donohoe for the Eurogroup to take stock of the economic and financial situation. It is not intended to be a ritual euro summit: “We will also deal with the coordination of our fiscal policy, exchange views on economic governance and take stock of the financial architecture of our economic and monetary union,” summarizes Michel.
Between the banking crisis in the US and Switzerland and the reform of the Stability Pact, there is certainly no shortage of things to talk about: a senior EU official says that “leaders will be anxious to hear from Lagarde” about what is going on . “From experience, the talks with Lagarde and Donohoe are really challenging.” Therefore, “very detailed questions are expected about what is being done” to prevent the banking crisis that exploded in the US and then Switzerland with the rescue of Credit Suisse spilled over to the rest of Europe by UBS thanks to the treasury. The discussion between the heads of state and government tomorrow “could be long, but not because there is a crisis”. And President Lagarde “is very good at answering detailed questions.”
Several delegations would like an in-depth discussion on the reform of the Stability Pact following the Ecofin conclusions, but several sources agree that the will of the Presidency is not to have him at senior level until he is ready to table the Commission’s legislative proposal , which Elysée sources expect will arrive “a priori in the second half of April”, so probably before the informal Eurogroup Ecofin, which is scheduled to take place on April 28-29. will meet in Stockholm in April. A discussion between the heads of state and government without a legislative proposal still on the table, notes an EU diplomatic source, “would not bring any added value”. Of course, nothing prevents some leaders from raising the issue, but the Presidency’s will is to avoid an in-depth discussion on an issue that is still divisive. At least at this stage.