Defeat Ukraine in Donbass. Then continue the advance south. Arrival in Odessa and Nikolaev. And by establishing a direct link with Transnistria, where there is “an oppressed Russian-speaking population.” In the words of the interim commander of Russia’s Central Military District, Rustam Minnekayev, today it is Dmitry Suslov, director of the Moscow International Study Center, who explains the Kremlin’s “maximalist” objectives. But Suslov also warns that there is a second current of thought in the Russian ruling class. Which is minimalistic instead. And he notes that the Transnistria target would require far more resources, prolong the war and make an agreement with Ukraine and the West more difficult.
Southern Target
Suslov, speaking in an interview with Corriere della Sera, says Vladimir Putin simply hasn’t decided what to do yet. And it is worth remembering that on February 24, the day the war began, he himself told Suslov the opposite. With the argument that the Russians’ goal is regime change in Kyiv and thus the removal of Zelenskyy. The change of perspective explains it today: “The initial assumption that Ukraine would collapse like a house of cards has turned out to be wrong. The Ukrainian army put up an impressive resistance with massive support from the West ». From this perspective, the conquest of the territories claimed by the two secession republics and the occupation of the southern part of Ukraine would also lead to the collapse of the Kiev economy. With that, the steelworks and the ports of Mariupol and Odessa would be lost.
That’s why Zelensky immediately sounded the alarm in Moldova and yesterday Chisinau protested to the Russian ambassador. While Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov replied “no comment” to those who asked him to comment on the new perspective. Meanwhile, the offensive in Donbass is becoming more and more lively. According to reports from Kyiv, a rain of rockets also hit the regional trauma hospital in the city of Lyman yesterday. The offensive operations are aimed in particular at Sloviansk in the Donetsk region. The focus remains on the strategic centers of Rubizhne and Popasna, where Moscow forces opened fire on a bus evacuating civilians. Heavy raids also hit Kharkiv, where the Russian army claimed responsibility for capturing an arsenal containing thousands of tons of ammunition.
What is Transnistria?
Transnistria is currently a small region that has declared independence but is not recognized by the UN. It is governed by an autonomous administration based in Tiraspol. According to unverifiable estimates, between 1,500 and 2,000 Russian soldiers are in the region, the city is 100 kilometers from Odessa. The regime already obeys Putin. That’s why it could be Russia’s next target after conquering the East. But in the meantime, the military offensive in Donbass continues to deliver unsatisfactory results for Moscow. Although the advance is gradual, it is slow. So much so that ISPI analyst Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti tells La Stampa today that the Russians are not advancing with a degree of success that could portend larger operations like the capture of Odessa. Which would also be militarily expensive. So much so that, according to Michael Kofman, director of the CNA Institute’s research program on Russia, Moscow instead wants to confine itself to the south it has already reached and concentrate its forces only on the Donbass. But keeping the Odessa threat alive serves to force the Ukrainians to deploy soldiers in that area as well.
