- By Holly Honderich
- in Washington
55 minutes ago
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Trudeau: We don’t want to “provoke” India.
As he listened to questions from reporters in New York this week, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s reliable smile began to fade.
Unsurprisingly, almost all the questions centered on India and Mr. Trudeau’s shocking accusation earlier this week that there was credible evidence that the Indian government was involved in the extrajudicial killing of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil, a Sikh activist India has accused of terrorism.
Delhi has denied having anything to do with the murder.
The Prime Minister spoke slowly and carefully, sticking closely to his talking points. “We don’t want to provoke or cause problems,” he said. “We advocate the rules-based order.”
But where, several reporters asked, were Canada’s allies? “So far,” one journalist told Mr. Trudeau, “you appear to be alone.”
Publicly at least, Mr. Trudeau appears to be largely on his own as he grapples with India, one of the world’s fastest-growing economies with a population 35 times larger than Canada’s.
In the days since the prime minister’s explosive announcement, his allies in the Five Eyes intelligence alliance made seemingly standard public statements, all of which fell far short of full support.
British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said his country “takes the things Canada says very seriously.” In almost identical language, Australia said it was “deeply concerned” by the allegations.
But perhaps the most deafening silence came from Canada’s southern neighbor, the United States. The two countries are close allies, but the U.S. did not express outrage on Canada’s behalf.
When President Joe Biden publicly brought up India in his speech to the United Nations this week, he meant not to condemn the country but to praise it for helping chart a new economic path.
Mr Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan later denied there was a “wedge” between the US and its neighbor and said Canada would be closely consulted. But other public statements have been tepid, more hints of “deep concern” coupled with affirmations of India’s growing importance to the Western world.
The problem for Canada, experts told the BBC, is that its interests are currently taking a backseat to India’s enormous strategic importance.
“The United States, the United Kingdom and all these Western and Indo-Pacific allies have developed a strategy that is largely focused on India to be a bulwark and counterweight to China. That’s something they can’t jettison,” said Xavier Delgado, a researcher at the Wilson Center’s Canada Institute.
“The fact that they did not come to the rescue to defend Canada shows the geopolitical reality.”
Speaking to Canadian broadcaster CTV, US Ambassador to Canada David Cohen confirmed reports that the Five Eyes partners had exchanged information on the matter. But to a report that the same allies had rebuffed a call from Canada to publicly condemn the killing, he said only that he was “not in the habit of commenting on private diplomatic conversations.”
Still, the relative calm could also be an indication of Canada’s shortcomings on the world stage – a reliable Western ally but not a global power in its own right.
“This is a moment of weakness,” said Christopher Sands, director of the Canada Institute.
“Right now we are experiencing a moment of hard power. This is not the environment in which Canada shines,” he said. “The bottom line is violence, power and money, which Canada doesn’t have.”
Few outside India objected to Mr. Trudeau’s decision to publicly announce the allegations, which, if true, would amount to a political assassination on Canadian soil by a fellow Democrat. But these ethics may not be enough to mitigate global headwinds.
image description,
Trudeau speaks at a press conference during the UN General Assembly
For Mr. Trudeau, this cold geopolitical reality meant seemingly lonely days as tensions with India mounted — diplomatic expulsions, travel warnings and, most dramatically, a suspension of all visa services for Canadians seeking to travel to India.
To make matters worse, this long week marks the end of an even longer summer for Canada’s Liberal leader.
As Canadians struggled with inflation and high interest rates, news spread of alleged Chinese election interference in Canada. Critics said Trudeau and his cabinet were aware of it but didn’t take it seriously.
Then it emerged that the country’s most notorious serial killer, Paul Bernardo, had been moved to a medium-security prison, sparking nationwide outrage. Once again, Mr. Trudeau’s team faced criticism that it had been caught flat-footed.
By September, Mr. Trudeau’s approval ratings had fallen to their lowest level in three years, with 63% of Canadians disapproving of their prime minister, elected in 2015.
“It hasn’t been lower than that over an eight-year period,” said Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, a nonpartisan research group. “He was asked very clear questions like, ‘Are you going to stay here? Are you going to resign?’”
It’s another cold reality for Mr. Trudeau, who began his premiership as a minor national star with an overwhelming majority mandate.
“He is a celebrity like we have never seen in Canadian politics,” said Campbell Clark, political editor of the Globe and Mail newspaper. “And after he won the election, his popularity skyrocketed.”
But after eight years as a highly visible prime minister, Canadians may have had enough, Mr. Clark said, noting that it feels like Mr. Trudeau’s star power has faded, particularly in the last few months.
Image source: Getty Images
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Prime Minister Trudeau ended his long week with a friendly visit from President Zelensky
But some experts warned that while Mr. Trudeau appears to be alone on the international stage, this dispute with India could provide a much-needed boost at home.
“It took him away from all these domestic issues,” Mr. Clark said.
And it couldn’t have hurt that Mr. Trudeau ended his week alongside another ally — and even bigger celebrity — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. For one day at least, Mr. Trudeau seemed to be in very good company.