Legend has it that in the wars fought in theNortheastern Europe, from the time of the Mongol invasion to World War II, it is always the “common winter” to win. In 2022, the typical analyst narrative on the war in Ukraine predicts that the two armies will end up getting bogged down in the notorious rasputitsa, or anger, as a leitmotif mud which permeates the communication routes in the steppes of Eastern Europe in autumn and late winter. But does it have to go according to these forecasts? First, let’s look at the map updated on September 21 and observe how most of the territory occupied by the Russians in Ukraine is represented by a strip between the city, averaging 150 kilometers deep and just over 500 kilometers long Kherson and the oblast of Donetsk. Well, historical average temperatures in these regions speak of a continental fall season, much tempered by proximity Black Seathe – although on average they are less hot than the Mediterranean Sea – still manages to guarantee southern Ukraine and the Russian Oblast Sochi a relatively mild climate, with a much lower risk of heavy rainfall and snowfall than the northernmost regions. Above all, historically, the period with the danger of night frosts and snow icing is only between the months of December and January. Of course, as we move away from the sea, the duration of the period marked by heavy rains and snowfalls and by mud-frost phenomena increases: However, the fact that Kyiv cleared the parts has increased Kharkiv an area more than seven times the size of the province of Rome greatly reduces the risk. Successful or unsuccessful continuation of the Ukrainian counteroffensive from the parts of Lugansk and Donetsk It is being determined how much of the territory with potentially impassable roads will be the scene of fighting in the colder months.
In short, as we have seen, Eastern Europe as such does not offer the same conditions Odesa on the Black Sea up to Murmansk, beyond the Arctic Circle. The climate and poor roads in these areas did not prevent construction major military operationsas the Second Battle of the Masurian Lakes in February 1915, during a colossal snowstorm, German and Tsarist forces fought in an area stretching between the Baltic Sea egg Carpathiansor the offensive of Lake Naraca diversionary maneuver by the Russians against them Wilhelmine Germany Spring of 1916, in full rasputitsa.
The examples of big war They are closer to what is happening in Ukraine than World War II, because of the nature of it war of attrition and position of this conflict: from the moment the troops are deployed ditches o they attach detachments to attack or defend, the risk of bogging down tanks and other heavy vehicles is secondary to the need to have viable troops with good morale, that is, not drowned in the mud and not frozen alive on to wait for the enemy . Likewise, the greater or lesser loss of mobility of armored vehicle columns may be secondary to the tactical advantage of deploying well-trained guerrilla forces in snow and mud. The chronicles of the “white war” fought in between soviet union and Finland in the winter of 1939-40 they are full of heroic tales about the infallible Finnish snipers who made this mid-winter conflict a real nightmare for the Soviets.
In short, the war in winter will not sink into the mud and will not freeze in the snow, except in the case of extraordinary and unpredictable atmospheric phenomena, but will continue opposite entrenchmentsthe guerrilla and the partisan fight the Ukrainians, in addition to the offensives with the Russian missiles. When the rasputitsa slows down the movement howitzers and the deadly Himar Immediately after the attacks, the high-level organization of the Russians did not allow any tactical advantages. In fact, the hardships of the cold season will add to the weakness of the Moscow Armed Forces’ morale, with the risk that this will lead to a new route even more devastating than that of Kharkiv, which took place less than two weeks ago. yes, because me 300,000 reservists whom the Putin regime will snatch from domestic life, they will not go into battle with zeal and sacrifice, but only because a bayonet will be planted in their back. Will the same Russian army that struggled to feed and clothe fighters in the summer be able to provide them with warm clothing, adequate equipment and supplies for the winter? So exactly for them, so for the young men of To fly, Yekaterinburg and St Pietroburgoeven more so than for the Ukrainians, the onset of winter is another cause for concern and dissatisfaction, because they are not used to living in muddy streets and camping in the middle of the cold like the Asians who have been mobilized en masse up to now, but to well-heated houses and the comforts that war threatens to snatch away from them forever.