Update on the war in Ukraine
On the 48th day of the Russian invasion, the Ukrainian army and its western allies are still expecting a major offensive by Russian troops in the east to take control of Donbass. According to the French general staff, it could start “within a few days”. Russia could launch a major offensive to capture Donetsk and Luhansk regions, or even penetrate there [fleuve] Dnieper, if its capacities allow, and complete the dismantling of the last resistances in Mariupol,” a spokesman told the press.
A US military official added: in a briefing covered by the Foreign Policy mediaRussian bombing and airstrikes have decreased in recent days “as Russian troops are still positioning for the Battle of Donbass”.
In Mariupol. According to Moscow, more than a thousand Ukrainian soldiers have been visiting the besieged strategic port for more than a month. The Ukrainians have not denied, but have assured that the city has not fallen and that there are still pockets of resistance in the Azovstal metallurgical complex, where the last Ukrainian troops are entrenched, for some hidden in a network of tunnels. City Mayor Vadym Boïtchenko confirms that 180,000 civilians are still waiting to be evacuated from the metropolitan area and surrounding villages. On Tuesday he had given a number of at least 20,000 deaths since the beginning of the war.
In the East. The Ukrainian authorities have called on the population of these regions to flee as soon as possible. No humanitarian corridor could be opened on Wednesday, the Ukrainians accused the Russians of “violating the ceasefire” in the Luhansk region. The head of one of the two unilaterally pro-Russian “republics,” Leonid Passetchnik, claimed that his soldiers now controlled “80 to 90 percent” of that region. According to him, the Ukrainian army is only present in the cities of Kremennaya, Rubizhne, Sievierodonetsk, Lisichansk and, to a lesser extent, in Popasnaya.
In Borodyanka, April 13. UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT PRESS SER / VIA REUTERS
Kyiv and the North. Around the capital as elsewhere, Ukrainian authorities say they continue to find bodies every day in areas from which Russian forces withdrew in late March, particularly Boutcha and Borodianka. The Russian Defense Ministry has warned that if Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory continue, “Russian military strikes will be carried out on decision-making centers, including in Kyiv”. According to the regional governor, seven people have been killed and 22 others injured in Russian bombings in the Kharkiv region (northeast) in the past 24 hours.
The difficult balance. Figures provided by the UN are taken as a reference for civilian casualties, as in other wars: the preliminary figure is “4,450 civilian casualties in the country: 1,892 dead and 2,558 injured” as of February 24, but the UN says they ” believe the actual numbers are much higher”. The UN has announced that it is changing the methodology and that the next assessments should be closer to reality. As for military casualties, each side regularly reports the number of enemy soldiers killed. As for their own losses, they are more discreet. Russia said on March 25 it had lost 1,351 troops. Ukraine admits losing soldiers in the fighting, but hasn’t released specific numbers.