by Massimo Gaggi
The historian: NATO demonstrates extraordinary unity China is thinking about alliances with Moscow, I don’t think it will help Russia militarily
The world is no longer divided between right and left, but between democracies and authoritarian regimes. China and Russia are the engines of the second front. Putin has been at the center of this undemocratic network for years, sending troops everywhere from Syria to Venezuela. Now try to crush Ukraine. I am convinced, and I have been saying so since 2014, that the decisive battle between free states and authoritarian regimes will be fought here. The result is far more important than the fate of Ukraine itself because it will give a powerful boost to democracies or totalitarianisms, depending on who prevails.
After the fall of the Berlin Wall and the Soviet regime, historian Francis Fukuyama fascinated and deceived the West with his The End of History: an essay in which he described liberal democracy as the terminus of mankind’s ideological evolution. Thirty years later and after several course corrections Fukuyama remains convinced of the absolute value of liberaldemocratic ideals, but also recognizes that one must take to the barricades to defend them. I interview him as, after returning briefly to Stanford, California, after a mission in the Balkans, he is heading to London, where he is presenting his new book, Liberalism and Its Discontents.
In your recent interventions, you define Putin’s attack as a great tragedy, a potentially deadly threat, but also a great opportunity for the revitalization of liberal democracies that are waking up from their paralysis, rediscovering their compactness and a deep sense of a common identity. .
Putin made a serious error of judgment. He thought of taking Ukraine in two days, and instead the fierce resistance of this people shows the world, and especially the young people who care little for the ideals of freedom and democracy that they take for granted, the importance of these values and especially the importance of defending them from dictators willing to do anything to smother them. The awakening of the West will cost him dearly, but Putin can still win a victory, albeit a partial one: if he succeeds in overthrowing Zelenskyy’s democratic government, he will show that great political results can be achieved with military force : a precursor to others trying to follow the same path.
How much can you rely on NATO’s compactness, from Orbn’s Hungary to Turkey saying no to sanctions?
NATO has rediscovered an extraordinary unit that no one expected. a valuable asset. Of course, we cannot trust Orbn, who is always ready for the most unscrupulous games, and there are other problems, for example with Poland, which should be sanctioned by the EU. Now that Warsaw is the Alliance’s advanced frontier and is welcoming millions of refugees, this dossier is shelved. However, the problems remain. But the general spirit of European governments is different today. Above all, the radical and very rapid change in Germany weighs: the 40year change in Ostpolitik, the doubling of military spending, the arms deliveries to Ukraine. This war can set the stage for a reestablishment of NATO and Europe on a new basis. Things that were unthinkable until yesterday are becoming possible. Indeed, if Macron is reelected, France and Germany can push ahead with the socalled European Independent Defense Initiative.
To be credible, shouldn’t a European defense also have a nuclear deterrent? Germany with the atomic bomb?
Nuclear deterrence is important, but in Europe it already exists in two countries and it is enough. Then there will always be the American NATO umbrella. I don’t think Germany wants to become a nuclear power. What matters is a conventional military force sufficient to defend itself and for missions like the one in the Balkans.
Aren’t you afraid that the attempt to isolate Putin, including militarily and economically, could be thwarted by China?
After flippantly promising unlimited alliances to Putin, China is reconsidering. I don’t see any concrete evidence of a really positive response to the Russian request for military assistance. They will be cautious: the sanctions against Russia will also dampen their targets on Taiwan, and the failure of Moscow’s troops will also make them think. China has invested heavily in the military, has cuttingedge technologies, but that doesn’t mean its armed forces have sufficient operational capabilities.
Aren’t you also worried that an antiWestern emergingmarket front could form around Russia and China against costly sanctions, maybe just from an economic perspective?
In many parts of the world there is dissatisfaction with the West, but this is mainly due to mistakes such as the invasion of Iraq or even just diplomatic friction. I come from North Macedonia: l The strong resentment towards Europe is not based on a rejection of liberaldemocratic values, but on the fact that Skopje applied for EU membership 17 years ago and since then the door has been closed in its face several times. . I have little faith in the birth of a trading bloc independent of the US and Europe: the payment system is still almost entirely dollar and euro. And it’s not that easy for China to replace a global financial network like Swift. He can, but not in the short term.
Isn’t NATO responsible for mistakes?
Offering Georgia and Ukraine to join the alliance in 2008 was a grave mistake, but I am not one of those who, like political scientist John Mearsheimer, attribute Russian aggression to NATO enlargement. The origin lies in the powerful historical narrative that Putin propagated and in his will to reverse the postCold War European order. Not only in Ukraine, but throughout Eastern Europe.
Fears of an escalation to the use of the atomic bomb?
I don’t think the nuclear threat is very credible. Everyone, including Putin, realizes that the atomic bomb is not a useful weapon to achieve political ends. I fear the use of chemical weapons as a desperate response from a corner locked Kremlin.
Turkey has also become a regional power thanks to its drones used in various conflicts. He is now arming Ukraine, but is negotiating with Putin and not sanctioning him. What game is he playing?
Turkey believes it has a special relationship with Moscow. Special but not good report since Turkey shot down a Russian jet in Syria. Erdogan is upset because Putin consulted him and then failed to heed his advice by launching the attack. I don’t think he doesn’t mind seeing Moscow in trouble. Also thanks to the Ukrainians’ deadly Turkish drones, which everyone now wants to buy.
March 21, 2022 (change March 21, 2022 | 10:47 p.m.)
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