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Nearly half of the munitions Israel has used in Gaza since the start of the war have been unguided bombs, a U.S. intelligence assessment has found, a ratio that some weapons experts say explains the conflict's huge civilian death toll. The revelation comes as U.S. and Israeli officials are intensifying talks over the conduct of military operations in the two-month conflict.
Israel Defense Forces have fired more than 29,000 air-to-surface munitions into the Palestinian enclave since October 7, and only 55 to 60 percent of them were precision-guided, according to a new assessment from the Office of the Israel Defense Forces Director of National Intelligence. The rest were so-called “dumb bombs,” said two people familiar with the assessment, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The use of so many unguided bombs, first reported by CNN, is raising concerns among humanitarian groups and others as calls from inside and outside the United States mount for Washington to condition any further military aid to Israel on an immediate reduction in civilian deaths close.
The Biden administration has so far rejected such calls, fearing a Republican backlash and political attacks from powerful pro-Israel lobbying organizations. Instead, it has sought to influence the Israeli government through a series of high-level visits, including meetings between national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv on Thursday, to sharpen the focus of its military campaign.
The IDF did not respond to a request for comment.
According to Gaza's Health Ministry, nearly 18,800 people have been killed and nearly 51,000 injured in the past two months. Under international law, weapons are considered indiscriminate if they cannot be directed at military targets.
“It is challenging there, even under the best of circumstances, to distinguish between valid military targets and civilians,” said Brian Castner, senior crisis adviser and weapons investigator at Amnesty International. “And therefore, under the basic rules of discretion, the Israeli military should use the most precise weapons at its disposal and use the smallest weapon suitable for the target.”
Israel used “very, very large weapons,” said Castner. “So if you use this in a densely populated area, you are far more likely to kill nearby civilians, even if you hit your valid military target.”
Biden's arming of Israel is met with backlash as the number of civilians in Gaza rises
In some cases, Israel's use of unguided munitions is less problematic than in others, a U.S. official familiar with the matter said. Hitting tunnel entrances or buildings in less populated areas when Israeli aircraft fly at low altitudes and fire their payloads at close range – a tactic known as “dive bombing” – is seen as more justifiable by the Biden administration.
Overall, however, the government considers the number of civilian casualties to be unacceptably high and has urged Israelis to exercise greater caution. During a recent visit to Israel, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Israeli officials they had weeks, not months, to continue fighting at their current pace, a U.S. official familiar with the matter said.
Asked about the use of “dumb bombs,” State Department spokesman Matt Miller said he was unable to make a “judgment” on the matter. “There are different ways to use any number of munitions,” he said.
Sullivan's trip to Israel on Thursday was the first in a series of visits that senior officials are planning in the coming days. All are expected to make it clear that Washington wants a change in the pace of Israeli airstrikes. Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is scheduled to arrive Friday, and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is expected in Israel on Monday.
“Netanyahu has gone far too far and Jake Sullivan will inform him that the bombing must be severely curtailed or Israel will lose its last true friend,” Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.) said in a statement opinion on social media.
White House spokesman John Kirby said Sullivan “discussed the next phase of Israel's military operation” with Netanyahu and “asked tough questions.”
“Jake also discussed the efforts Israel is now making to be more surgical and precise in its targeting, and the efforts it is making to increase the flow of aid,” Kirby said.
Sullivan plans to meet Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank on Friday. Reports that Sullivan had set a specific timeline for completing high-intensity clearance operations, including airstrikes and major ground movements, by the end of the month were “not entirely accurate,” a senior administration official told reporters after the meetings.
While the government pushed for more precise targets, the official said the government had not given Israel a deadline.
“We are still in the middle of the main phase [of] High-intensity clearance operations which will transition to low-intensity phase over time,” the official said. “We’re not there yet.”
Asked whether the war could end without the death of Hamas leader Yehiya Sinwar, the official expressed confidence that he would be killed soon. “It’s safe to say his days are numbered,” the official said. “Justice will be served.”
Biden says 'indiscriminate bombing' in Gaza costs Israel support
Earlier this week, President Biden told attendees at a fundraiser that “the indiscriminate bombings in Gaza are beginning to cost Israel support around the world,” marking one of the harshest U.S. criticisms of Israel's approach to the war.
Kirby said the president's comments “reflect the reality of global opinion, which is also important.”
International condemnation and concern over the scale of casualties in Gaza is growing. 153 nations voted Tuesday in favor of a U.N. General Assembly resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza – an increase of more than 30 votes since a similar motion in late October.
Frustration is also growing in Congress after the Biden administration invoked a sparingly used emergency provision that allowed the State Department to approve the sale of nearly 14,000 tank shells worth about $106 million to Israel without first approving the normal ones to go through congressional review channels. Lawmakers are also uneasy about the lack of published information about U.S. arms transfers, a process that involves a level of secrecy on the administration's part that is at odds with its approach to arming Ukraine.
“Do I have concerns? Yes, I do in that regard,” said Rep. Gregory W. Meeks (D-N.Y.), the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, adding that he was briefed by the administration before the tank shell sale . “Not because it is Israel or anyone else, but because of the funding involved, it should come to us.”
Pressure from human rights groups and even within Biden's own party is also growing, calling for greater scrutiny of U.S. military support for Israel and measures to protect civilians.
“We have documented a number of what we believe to be indiscriminate and disproportionate attacks. … I think this new information about the use of unguided bombs actually goes a long way toward explaining this,” said Castner, the Amnesty International weapons investigator.
Even attempts to determine the trajectory of such missiles more precisely cannot necessarily reduce the potential for harm to civilians, according to analyzes by Armament Research Services on behalf of the International Committee of the Red Cross. “The predicted range within which they will fall is almost always larger than that of precision-guided equivalents,” the report says.
Justin Bronk, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank, said there are technologies that could help increase the accuracy of unguided missiles.
Israel, for example, has F-16s equipped with targeting pods that use laser designators to improve accuracy in dive-bombing attacks.
However, accuracy can be affected by factors such as the altitude of the aircraft, wind and weather conditions, and whether the aircraft carrying out the attack is being attacked from the ground.
Some experts said the reported use of unguided munitions did not reflect the United States' own practice.
Marc Garlasco, a former military adviser at the Defense Intelligence Agency, said the U.S. military relies “almost exclusively” on precision munitions. This is particularly true in conflicts in which American commanders pursue targets in urban areas “because of the likelihood of civilian harm and the possibility of missing the target,” he said.
“Israel has the most technologically advanced weapons in the world and their [precision-guided munitions] have an accuracy of three meters,” he said — but in unguided bombing runs, munitions can land up to 30 meters, or about 100 feet, from their intended target.
Mick Mulroy, a Marine Corps and CIA veteran who later served in the Trump administration, said Israel may be keeping some of the “smart” precision bombs in reserve because they are more expensive and harder to obtain.
Mulroy told a Middle East Institute event that it appeared Israel had taken a “heavy-handed” approach in its early operations in Gaza. The United States, he said, would likely have been more conservative and “would not have fired many of the shots examined.”
Meg Kelly, Dan Lamothe and Maegan Vazquez contributed to this report.