Venezuela analysts see Maduro as consolidated and the situation in

Venezuela analysts see Maduro as consolidated and the situation in the country is complex; Lula will discuss the topic while traveling | politics

“An authoritarian government that holds elections, in a sense with a guaranteed result.” This is how Benigno Alarcón, director of the Center for Political Studies at the Andrés Bello Catholic University (Ucab) in Caracas, defines what Venezuela is today. This Wednesday (28), the country's political issues will be back on the agenda with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's trip to Guyana for the Summit of the Community of Caribbean States (Caricom) and to St. Vincent and the Grenadines for a meeting the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (Celac).

In both cases, Venezuela promises to take up a large part of the discussions. President Nicolás Maduro, in power since 2013, is in dispute with Guyana over the mineralrich Essequibo region in Guyana. In addition, it is under international pressure to hold free and competitive elections in 2024.

“Maduro, weakened internally, may always want to unite the country through an external conflict,” assesses Alarcón, although he does not believe that a military offensive will ultimately take place.

“But the regime is threatening and increasing the military presence on the border, and everyone must be aware of that. Nobody, least of all Brazil with its ambition to be regional leader, wants a war. “Everyone needs to sit at the table and put pressure on Maduro,” he added.

The political analyst is one of the three heard by the g1 who continue to live in Venezuela and follow the country's politics closely. The others are: Luis Salamanca of the Central University of Venezuela (UCV) and former rector of the Venezuelan Electoral Council (CNE) and Luis Vicente León, president of the Datanalisis Research Institute.

The three give different explanations of Chavismo resistance in Venezuela (Maduro is the political heir to former President Hugo Chávez). And they indicate how difficult a change of direction will be.

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Since Chávez's election in 1998, Venezuela has undergone sweeping economic, social and political changes that have consolidated the central government's power over virtually all institutions. With the death of Chávez in 2013, his successor Maduro, who did not enjoy the same popularity, founded a coalition that he himself called “civilmilitary.”

He deepened the military's presence in the government, increased authoritarianism, the persecution of opponents and the media, and achieved a personally important achievement: he defeated internal opponents within Chavismo itself.

All this broth made it extremely difficult to produce a competitive opposition with a clear leadership. “He began to control institutions and rule with violence,” Alarcón explains.

The main opponent today is Maria Corina Machado, who is considered a “rightwing radical” by Chavismo and is not eligible for election due to various accusations such as corruption and gang formation, which she denies and, in the opinion of most experts, has no legal basis.

For Salamanca, the impeachment of Corina, who is the favorite to defeat Maduro in the polls, is already a sign that “democracy in Venezuela has become something different.”

“But there are open paths, and defeating Maduro through the vote is the best way out,” he believes, recalling that the regime has “withstood and survived international pressure over the years.”

Salamanca understands that there could be surprises even if Corina doesn't actually run. Corina can suggest other names that are competitive.

For Alarcón, the government “has never been so bad.” Attitudes such as the recent arrest of activist Rocío San Miguel are proof of this. “The stronger opposition is causing Maduro to radicalize to the other side.” According to him, today 85% of people in Venezuela want change 40% of them identify as Chavista.

President Lula will meet the President of Guyana in Essequibo

Salamanca believes that Lula and Colombian President Gustavo Petro, who have a good dialogue and historical ties with Chavismo, can help open avenues for negotiation “by convincing Maduro and the Chavista elite of the need for change.” “A peaceful exit from the crisis is of great interest for Brazil and Latin America. Lula could advise Maduro.”

However, Luis Vicente León analyzes that Maduro's government is so strong and embedded in society that these negotiations are extremely complex because “the cost of Maduro's departure is very high for the socalled Bolivarian Revolution.”

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“There are many forces within this Venezuelan autocracy. In order for you to imagine a transition between concentration of power and democracy, you have to analyze two variables: the cost of leaving the leader and the cost of staying there,” he explained.

“Maduro would only allow negotiations if his stay costs were very high and the departure costs were very low. But the cost of his departure is high and the offer is poor,” assesses León. “The discussion about the wishes of the majority of the population, justice or democracy, is academic. Empirically it is empty,” he added.

For the analyst, a postChavista Venezuela can only emerge after a real political negotiation in which both sides recognize the strength of their opponents and reach an agreement for a slow and joint transition that gives the Chavista states, for example, “the possibility, without persecution to leave.” “What else makes them leave?” he asks. León does not yet see any leaders on either side with this ability to engage in dialogue.

“I hate to say it, but the exit may not happen this year. What remains is that the opponent stays active, sticks to the opponent's rules and hopes that he makes mistakes,” he assesses.

The country is showing signs of a modest but sustained economic recovery. According to the expert, in the last three years there has been a “relaxation” in the private sector and certain economic easing, which have improved life in the country. And if Chavismo was successful in anything, it was in its ability to mobilize the neediest sections of society and in propaganda using oil dollars. “In other words: the solution can be longterm,” summarizes León.

For Alarcón, “the Maduro government is supported not by popular support but by institutional support. Even in a postChavismo scenario, it will be very difficult to rebuild the country.”

Possibility to stay in the country

What makes citizens like the three experts stay in the country when more than 7 million people have left Venezuela in recent years?

“Many people were stuck here. The loss of property is immense. A house that was worth $400,000 is now worth $180,000 and no one wants to buy it,” says Salamanca.

“There are also friends, family and work here. If we all leave, we will leave the country to them.” [regime de Maduro]. And we will not be here to see the changes or to restore democracy,” says Alarcón.

“My work depends on me being here. And it's not true that everything is over. There are people who invest and produce, there is the oil industry, there is exaggeration in this speech, even if the government is a disaster. It’s my country and…” I don’t want to go,” concludes León.