Chavismo and the opposition agreed two years ago in dialogue in Mexico on a unified position on the territorial dispute with Guyana, one of the few issues on which both blocs agree.
Venezuela’s government is unlikely to lose a consultative referendum on the territorial claim of Guyana Esequiba, now governed by Guyana, but that vote is intended to appeal to nationalism in the face of a “common enemy” and will have no impact on the international legal battle over the dispute , analysts agree. .
The President of the National Assembly and Maduro’s confidant Jorge Rodríguez proposed this Thursday to authorize a consultative referendum on Essequibo through an emergency legislature. The plenary voted in favor.
The approval comes days after Venezuela demanded Guyana hold oil tenders in disputed maritime areas.
This week the case sparked an exchange of views between spokespeople for Venezuela, the United States and the Organization of American States (OAS).
Although there is no scheduled date, the National Electoral Council is expected to organize the consultation in a timely manner as there are no upcoming elections on the calendar.
Experts in Venezuela believe that the result will be in favor of the ruling party. “It’s like asking a son if he loves his mother,” said specialist and retired ambassador Sadio Garavini di Turno.
“It’s an obvious diversionary tactic,” said the political scientist with a doctorate.
Essequibo is one of the few issues where Chavismo and its opposition coincide.
During negotiations in Mexico, its delegations agreed on an agreement “to ratify and defend the sovereignty of Venezuela over Guiana Esequiba,” a territory of 160,000 square kilometers that has been claimed since the 19th century.
Also read: Dispute with Guyana, strained relations between Venezuela and the US in full negotiation
Lauren Caballero, an international relations expert, also believed that the referendum would allow the government to “divert public opinion from other electoral issues” as the opposition primaries (October) loom and negotiations for better conditions for the presidential election are in progress.
Chavismo is trying to “refocus opinion on a question of national unity,” he explained.
“People would say yes to a question about defending Essequibo and the Venezuelan government would use all its resources to win the consultation, he said.
Patriotism and nationalism “always” flow through the Venezuelan’s veins, Caballero assured, recalling the country’s libertarian exploits 200 years ago and the military and political achievements of national heroes like Simón Bolívar, who helped make five American nations independent.
However, he questioned the purpose of the consultation and the impact of its outcome before the United Nations International Court of Justice, in whose hands the dispute lies.
“A referendum (on the Essequibo) would have no greater relevance, it is not binding on international law,” he warns in an interview with the Voice of America.
He believes, for example, that a similar consultation in Guyana would favor the neighboring government without actually having an impact on international litigation over the dispute.
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Political scientist Jesús Castellanos, a specialist in electoral issues in Venezuela, tends to believe that the ruling party is “trying to aggravate national sentiment and build a common external enemy.”
Its effects were limited to the domestic political area, he said. “And I don’t know to what extent. I suspect it will have no impact either in Venezuelan law or in international organizations,” he added in an interview with VOA.
He expected that the number of voters in this consultation could “reveal the degree of convocation” of Chavismo. “This is very dangerous for the regime just a few months before the presidential election,” he emphasized.
Conflicting steps
For his part, Caballero said, the government of former President Hugo Chávez, Maduro’s mentor, is full of “deep contradictions” regarding Guyana’s rights in Essequibo.
At first, he said, Chávez stuck to the foreign policies of previous 40-year governments and objected to any neighboring actions in the area.
Some time later, he “did not oppose” Guyana’s energy and trade movements in the claimed territory while the matter was left in the hands of the United Nations Good Officer Mechanism, the expert described.
International affairs specialist Maruja Tarre assured this Wednesday that at the beginning of the century, Chávez “decided to put the conflict on hold and turn a blind eye when Georgetown began to negotiate with the oil companies.”
For this reason, he described the Chavismo referendum initiative as “cynical.”
Also read: Government and opposition unite against ICJ ruling on Essequibo
The book “Venezuela and its Atlantic Oceans Yesterday and Today” by historian Manuel Donís argues that Chávez downplayed the controversy over the Essequibo during a visit to Guyana in 2004 to discuss the Treaty of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America , ALBA, to promote .
“The Essequibo issue is removed from the framework of the social, political and economic relations of the two countries (…) Venezuela will not oppose foreign companies exploring oil and gas deposits in the disputed territory of Guyana,” Chávez said earlier. 19 years old, remember the lyrics.
“Venezuela is weakened”
For his part, Caballero estimated that Guyana used these years to “build its case” and “gain an advantage” at the International Court of Justice, where it unilaterally sued Venezuela in March 2018.
Caballero complains that Venezuela is “weakened” and embroiled in a decades-long conflict that is now characterized by “internal political unrest,” economic “weakness,” military “incompetence” and divisions.
Both Tarre and Caballero described the United States’ position on Venezuela’s claim to Guyana as “clumsy” because it started the oil bidding round.
Brian Nichols, undersecretary of state for Western Hemisphere Affairs at the State Department, said Wednesday that the country “supports Guyana’s sovereign right to develop its own natural resources” and called efforts against Guyana’s sovereignty “unacceptable.”
Venezuelan authorities, including Maduro and his Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López, rejected Nichols’ opinion. Venezuela’s head of state said Washington was committing “brazen interference” in the matter.
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