War in Ukraine: Kiev is running out of ammunition, but what are the real consequences? Western France

This is one of the symptoms of the intense war that Ukrainians and Russians have been waging in the Ukrainian plain for almost two years. In recent weeks, foreign observers and senior Ukrainian officers have expressed concern about the ammunition shortage plaguing Kyiv's troops. Bottlenecks that do not have the same magnitude and impact depending on the sector in which they occur.

A structurally fragile anti-aircraft defense

The most vulnerable sector appears to be that of anti-aircraft defense, which is particularly stressed by the air strike campaign that the Russians have been carrying out for several weeks.

“There are signs of wear and tear on aircraft” from Ukraine, summarizes Stéphane Audrand, international risk consultant. At the beginning of January, General Sergiï Naïev, commander of the Ukrainian armed forces, wanted to reassure him: “In the current situation of mobile air defense systems, the ammunition is sufficient to withstand the next strong attacks.” he stated in an interview with AFP.

On the other hand, this applies to the future “Everything depends on Western supplies,” recalls Thibault Fouillet, expert at the Foundation for Strategic Research. “If you see the glass is half empty, the support is actually fragile. But if we look at it as half full, we can say that the American Congress still manages to reach agreements and, despite everything, we manage to supply Ukraine with weapons, even if we give it fewer weapons.”.

A US-developed Patriot anti-aircraft system, such as may be used in Ukraine. | ARCHIVES WEST FRANCE View in full screen mode

A US-developed Patriot anti-aircraft system, such as may be used in Ukraine. | ARCHIVES WEST FRANCE

“In the medium and long term, of course, we need help from Western countries to replenish the missile inventory.”, agrees General Serguiï Naïev. A dependency that makes Ukraine's situation particularly delicate, especially because Western stocks cannot be expanded and missile production times are relatively long.

The scenario of a Ukrainian air defense system practically unable to fulfill all its tasks cannot be completely ruled out.

When it comes to artillery, consumption needs to be managed

The question of ammunition supply also arises in land combat, where the mass of artillery has taken the predominant place.

“In Ukraine, the forgotten balance of power is becoming a reality again: the number of cannon and grenade muzzles is once again becoming an important element in an army’s combat capability.” recalls General Jérôme Pellistrandi, editor-in-chief of the magazine Défense Nationale.

However, in this matter “The Russians and Ukrainians have a problem with ammunition supplies” notes Thibault Fouillet. “And that impacts their operational capabilities.”

A Caesar cannon in Ukraine, June 2023. | Portal ARCHIVE View full screen

A Caesar cannon in Ukraine, June 2023. | Portal ARCHIVE

On the Ukrainian side, these shortages are linked to the high consumption of shells at the beginning of the war, which exhausted the sometimes scanty supplies, as well as the lack of support from the West, particularly the European one. Last November, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius admitted this “It is reasonable to assume that the goal of one million shells delivered will not be achieved before March 2024.” »

Given these shortcomings, Ukraine can only reduce its artillery capacity. However, this is not enough to cause the front to collapse, Thibault Fouillet reassures: “If you ration you will go back a little, but there are other ways to hold on” Forehead. In this way, the shortage of mussels can be managed in the best possible way.

Infantry little affected

And could the Ukrainian infantrymen fighting in the trenches or in the cities in the east of the country be deprived of cartridges or machine guns?

A priori, no. “Shortages have been identified from time to time, but overall it is not a real problem.”, notes Thibault Fouillet. For what ? “Because the production of weapons and small arms ammunition is so important worldwide that significant purchases are made. And Ukrainian domestic production is quick and easy to transport.”.

Ukrainian soldiers near Donetsk (eastern Ukraine), October 2023. | DIMITAR DILKOFF / AFP ARCHIVE View in full screen mode

Ukrainian soldiers near Donetsk (eastern Ukraine), October 2023. | DIMITAR DILKOFF / AFP ARCHIVE

One more reason to postpone a new offensive

The ammunition shortage appears to be manageable or at least brought under control. However, this satisfaction only applies to defensive questions.

Because “On the offensive, it is absolutely critical to have extensive ammunition supplies because without them you cannot restart a dynamic.”explains Thibault Fouillet. To replenish these supplies and accumulate modern equipment, the Ukrainians waited until June 2023 to launch their second counterattack.

Wait, the Ukrainians will have to do it again if they want to start a new offensive movement. A move that is hardly possible in the coming weeks and months anyway.