As fighting in Ukraine continues three weeks after the start of the Russian invasion, many countries dependent on Ukrainian wheat fear they will soon run out of food. Among the first affected populations were the inhabitants of the Mediterranean. Decryption.
“War in Ukraine could lead to a hurricane of famine.” This fear, expressed on 14 March by United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, echoes that of David Beasley, Director-General of the World Food Programme: “Bullets and bombs [en Ukraine] could bring the global food crisis to levels never seen before,” the latter had worried a few days earlier.
Ukraine and the south-west of Russia are the “breadbaskets of Europe”. Located on the Black Earth Region, one of the most fertile “black soils” in the world, “these two countries alone account for about 15% of world wheat production and almost 30% of world exports,” reminds France 24 Sebastien Abis, a research fellow at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (Iris) and director of the Demeter Club, a think tank specializing in global agricultural issues. “It’s not just the wheat. These two countries account for 80% of world sunflower oil production, and Ukraine is the fourth largest exporter of corn in the world.”
But today, with three weeks after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, fighting continues and the Black Sea offensive intensifies, this breadbasket is cut off from the world. “Nothing leaves Ukrainian ports anymore,” explains Sebastien Abis. “And it is impossible to know what the country will be able to produce and harvest in the coming months,” the researcher continues.
If the conflict “first of all has dramatic consequences for the food security of Ukrainians, who struggle to find food under the bullets,” the specialist insists, this war is worrying many countries that depend on Ukrainian wheat and fear that they will not soon cease to be able to eat their fill.
The consequences are already visible
Among the first to be concerned about this indirect consequence of the war in Ukraine are the countries of the Mediterranean, in particular Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria. “The Maghreb countries are very dependent on Ukrainian wheat,” says Sebastien Abis. “And even more so this year because they have been hit by a severe drought that has increased their need for foreign imports.” “For its part, Egypt is the world’s largest importer of wheat and receives 60% of its imports from Russia and 40% from Ukraine.”
In these states, the consequences of the conflict in Eastern Europe are already visible. From the early days of the Russian invasion, “agricultural markets overreacted, anticipating problems with wheat supplies, which led to a sharp increase in prices,” explains Sebastien Abis. According to the data provided by the specialist, the cost of a ton of wheat now exceeds the historical level of 400 euros. For comparison, before the start of the conflict, it was 280 euros, and in the spring of 2020 – about 150 euros per ton.
In Tunisia, which is experiencing an economic crisis and inflation above 6%, the population was already living in a rhythm of lack of semolina or flour, essentials subsidized by the state. Faced with rising prices, many Tunisians can no longer do without these subsidized products, which are becoming increasingly difficult to find. Now often you have to go through the black market, where they are sold at gold prices.
My grandmother called me yesterday, she is worried. Tunisia is on the brink of starvation.
This is one of the consequences of the war in Ukraine and global warming, let’s talk about it. Theme (damn) ⤵️
— Teissir (@teissir_) March 14, 2022
In Egypt, the rise in the price of wheat led to an increase in the cost of bread in bakeries. “At the same time, the government tried to reassure the population by explaining that it had enough stocks of wheat for several months, which would be replenished thanks to local spring harvests,” says Sebastien Abis. But since the beginning of the Russian invasion, the country has been trying to get rid of Ukrainian wheat by issuing tenders to other potential suppliers. “Nothing happened, the offered prices were too high,” the specialist explains. “We find ourselves in a vicious circle: even if the country can buy more expensive wheat, this will inevitably affect the purchasing power of the population,” the researcher explains.
For its part, Algeria decided to opt for preventive measures. Thus, the government banned the export of semolina, pasta and other consumer products derived from wheat in order to conserve stocks of raw materials. “But Algeria has an asset: the country exports oil, the price of which is skyrocketing. This gives her the opportunity to buy wheat even when prices rise,” says Sebastien Abis.
“Unsustainable” prices for developing countries
North Africa is not the only region affected. Indonesia is the world’s second largest buyer of Ukrainian wheat; Pakistan, Turkey and the countries of Central Asia and sub-Saharan Africa also depend on it.
“I am particularly concerned about some countries in West Africa where cereal stocks are very low, especially in Mali, Burkina Faso and Senegal,” continues Sebastian Abis. “For these countries, current prices are volatile.” On Wednesday, March 16, the UN demanded $4.3 billion to help 17 million people in Yemen, arguing that the war in Ukraine could further aggravate the situation in the country, which has been suffering from war since 2014. Some 161,000 people will soon face “catastrophic food insecurity”, according to the Organization.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) estimates that eight to 13 million more people could suffer from malnutrition worldwide if food exports from Ukraine and Russia are permanently blocked.
“We must not forget that this new crisis is superimposed on an already very difficult context related to the Covid-19 pandemic, which has already caused historic inflation and undermined food security in many countries,” says Sebastien Abs.
Wheat, a geopolitical issue
Faced with this threat, and resurrecting the specter of “hunger riots” that erupted in 2008 in several countries due to soaring grain prices, French Agriculture Minister Julien Denormandy called on the European Union to accept the arrivals from Ukraine. “Europe must produce more,” he assured, “ during an interview with France Interbelieving that the EU should “assume its educational mission”.
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“What the minister announces is certainly the most pragmatic position, but we are not going to increase production at the snap of our fingers by this summer,” says Sebastien Abis. “We have to give funds to producers, we have to reconsider the provisions on land left fallow… In recent years, Europe has adopted a policy of ‘produce better’. To produce more would mean rethinking the whole policy of European agriculture.
“Wheat is becoming a geopolitical issue more than ever,” the specialist notes. “Because behind all this there is also the question of how the States will position themselves in relation to the Russian market. Will Russian grain exports continue to circulate? scene.
