Before the US Congress, Avril Haines, the US chief of intelligence, gave an update on the war in Ukraine and Vladimir Putin’s alleged intentions.
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Posted on 5/10/2022 5:53 PM Updated on 5/10/2022 6:02 PM
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The war is far from over. Vladimir Putin does not want to restrict his desire for occupation to the Donbass region of Ukraine, but wants to take the conflict to Transnistria, a region of Moldova that split off in 1990. So said Tuesday, May 10, the chief of US intelligence, Avril Haines. “We believe that President Putin is preparing for a protracted conflict in Ukraine, in which he still intends to achieve goals beyond Donbass,” she told a congressional hearing.
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US intelligence believes the Russian military “wants to expand the land bridge [dans le sud de l’Ukraine] to Transnistria,” she added. While it is “possible” for Russian forces to achieve this goal in the coming months, “they will not be able to reach Transnistria and encircle Odessa without some form of general mobilization “She likely expects the resolve of the United States and the European Union to weaken as food shortages and soaring energy prices worsen,” she added, warning.
Putin’s ambitions exceed the capabilities of the Russian military, she said, and that “probably means we’ll move down a more unpredictable path and possibly escalation in the coming months,” Avril Haines added. “The current trend increases the chances that President Putin will resort to more drastic measures, including imposing martial law, rebalancing industrial production or a potential military escalation, to free up the resources needed to achieve his goals,” she continued.
“We continue to believe that President Putin will only order the use of nuclear weapons if he sees an existential threat to the Russian state or regime,” she said. The Russian president can still fall back on it “if he thinks he’s losing the war in Ukraine and NATO is either intervening or preparing to intervene,” she said. But even with that hypothesis, “it’s likely that it’s signaling before then,” noted Avril Haines.