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War in Ukraine: what do we know about the departures of planes from Moscow

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WAR IN UKRAINE – What happened in the skies of Russia? In the context of the war in Ukraine this weekend, all attention was turned to air activity around Moscow due to the takeoff of many private jets as well as official jets.

This Thursday morning, March 17, about a dozen planes belonging to the Russian government took off from Moscow in an easterly direction, as confirmed by several sites specializing in the observation of air activity. Among these official aircraft, Tupolev, Sukhoi and Antonov are operated by the Russian Armed Forces (Russian Air Force).

Aircraft mostly returned to Moscow after, sometimes almost immediately after landing. A second wave of similar surges also occurred this Friday, March 18, as war historian Cedric Mas points out on Twitter.

These aircraft movements have given rise to many interpretations or hypotheses, some even going so far as to suggest evacuation exercises or the flight of dignitaries from the Kremlin. At present, it is not possible to explain with certainty the reason for these trips, as well as the names of the people they may have carried.

What’s more, as the dedicated site The Aviationist explains very well, it’s not uncommon for so many flights of this type to happen at the same time, even if they tend to be more spaced apart throughout the day. Another important element to consider, if the direction of all these aircraft was mainly to the east, then this is also because European airspace is now closed to Russian flights.

gesture in the air

Last but not least, these planes left traces and did not try to hide information about their flight. What they might well have done was raise DSI, a magazine specializing in geostrategic and military issues: “If Russia dispersed its leaders, if it wanted to launch a surprise nuclear strike, it probably would not have left the transponders on”

And further: “This does not prevent using what could be an exercise in dispersal (…) as a political signal, to apply pressure. We saw this in the media panic surrounding the takeover of the Chernobyl power plants (…) Opinions are disturbed when it comes to nuclear energy. Obviously, Russia is playing on this,” DSI adds.

According to the magazine, these thefts could very well be a form of “message” or a signal to a form of “declarative escalation”, but be careful not to “overthink” or “underestimate”.

In an interview with LCI, aeronautical specialist Michel Polacco set off in the same direction on Friday afternoon. “There is this kind of gesticulation that made them fly big military planes, surveillance planes, listening planes, control planes, to show somewhere that their listening and surveillance are in working order. It all has a somewhat suspicious side because we are not used to it (…) We will have to see in the coming days if they can continue this gesticulation.” The specialist did not hesitate to remind that domestic business and commercial flights also continued in Russia.

Flight to Dubai?

Parallel to these official flights, aviation and OSINT specialists such as Dane Oliver Alexander also noted the departure of several private jets from Moscow to Dubai on Thursday.

These upswings came about as Vladimir Putin targeted Russia’s “traitors” in a video message, the “scums,” before triggering the necessary “cleansing” of Russian society. The master of the Kremlin then half named the oligarchs, speaking of those “who have villas in Miami or on the Cote d’Azur” and “who cannot live without foie gras, without oysters or without so-called gender freedom.”

A “cleansing” atmosphere that, in the quagmire of Ukraine, will also linger in Putin’s inner circle, according to the Institute for War Studies (ISW): “Putin is likely to conduct internal purges among his generals and how they neglected their assessments (…), or in retaliation for the erroneous intelligence of which he accuses them.

Over the weekend, the head of the Russian Guard, Viktor Zolotov, acknowledged for the first time that “everything (went) was not going as fast as (Moscow) would like.” Russian journalists Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan also stated on Meduza’s Latvian website that General Sergei Besseda, head of the FSB’s 5th directorate, and his deputy Anatoly Bolouh are under house arrest. Other sources reported this Thursday, March 17, that Deputy Director of the National Guard Roman Gavrilov “resigned.”

See also The HuffPost: How Zelensky uses history to seek international help