You never know when a war will start – unless you start it yourself,” says political scientist Ivan Krastev. It is equally impossible to predict the end of a war, which is why all predictions about the course of the war in Ukraine are extremely uncertain…
However, Krastev tried on Wednesday at a lecture organized by the “Presseclub Concordia” and the “journalism and media forum” (fjum). The political scientist, who comes from Bulgaria and is highly regarded internationally, pointed out a circumstance that until now has received little attention in the public debate: how much the development of the war in Ukraine in this new year of 2023 is related to the elections, all of which will take place in 2024: then elected the Russian and Ukrainian president and determined the EU Parliament and the future US president.
Separatist Leader Turns Against President Putin
Even if no one believes that the Russian people can freely elect their president, this vote still has significance for war. “Putin has to justify his actions,” says Krastev, who runs the Center for Liberal Strategies in Sofia and also works at the Vienna Institute of Human Sciences. This starting point for Putin is made even more explosive by the fact that the bellicose nationalist camp is becoming more and more aggressive and the head of state no longer controls it in the same way as before.
According to the US Institute for War Studies (ISW), former Russian secret service officer Igor Girkin has stepped up his criticism of Moscow’s war in Ukraine. He would even agree to impeach Putin, said the former separatist leader, who is blamed for the crash of a passenger plane over Donbass. The former intelligence officer criticizes Putin for naming commanders responsible for frequent failures in the war. It is precisely these voices that could push Putin to further tighten the exchange rate.
Presidential elections in Ukraine are scheduled at almost the same time as in Russia, also in spring 2024. These will be a logistical challenge: they are expected to take place in war zones from which much of the population has fled.
However, Krastev firmly hopes that these elections will take place using digital tools. A cancellation is not an option for Ukraine, because Western support is also due to the fact that a democracy is defending itself against an authoritarian regime in this war.
This support and, above all, the sanctions against Russia are not without controversy in Europe – right and left parties in particular are protesting the measures taken against the Putin regime. Thus, according to Krastev, the elections to the European Parliament will become “the biggest referendum on European foreign policy.” Anti-Western sentiments and opposition to vaccinations are likely to mix with pro-Russian attitudes among protest voters.
However, no new national government will be determined in this vote. And while there are differing opinions within European governments about the extent to which Ukraine should be supported, Krastev doesn’t believe “Europe will be divided over this – as long as the US doesn’t change its position.”
Krastev expects fighting to intensify
This is not the only reason why the 2024 US presidential election is particularly crucial. “Ukraine cannot win the war against Russia if it does not receive military and financial support from the United States,” stresses Krastev. At the same time, President Joe Biden also does not want Ukraine to lose the war, because otherwise he would have to explain to voters why support for this country was in vain.
It is not yet clear what the Republicans’ position will be, says Krastev. What is clear, however, is that in an election it is not another country, but the “other candidate who is the opponent”. Therefore, in the election campaign, Putin’s war will become Biden’s war. “Republicans will accuse you of doing too little or too much for Ukraine.”
According to Krastev, wars are not decided only on the battlefield. Especially in view of these elections, Krastev does not assume that the war will calm down this year or even become a frozen conflict. “Instead, I expect an intensification of the fight.” Because before the elections, those involved will probably try to set an example.