War is brewing in South America as Venezuela threatens to forcibly retake the disputed Essequibo Territory from Guyana, and the United States (US) lobbies with all its might on Guyana's behalf. Washington has conducted military exercises and “air operations” with President Irfaan Ali’s forces.
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The dispute involves a 160,000-square-kilometer, heavily forested border area, the Essequibo River, and an offshore area recently discovered to have vast oil and gas reserves.
Both countries claim ownership of the sparsely populated area, whose disputed border was agreed upon under an 1899 decision when Guyana was still part of the British Empire. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's government claims it rejects the “arbitrary” demarcation of borders drawn by what it sees as foreign colonial powers.
The US, for its part, has thrown its full weight behind Guyana, in line with its longstanding opposition to Venezuela, which it has sanctioned since the days of the late President Hugo Chávez and his current successor Maduro.
Meanwhile, Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro will meet Guyana's President Mohamed Irfaan Ali amid the territorial dispute, according to a letter from the Prime Minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
“The presidents will meet [the island nation of] Saint Vincent and the Grenadines on Thursday, December 14, 2023, under the auspices of CELAC (Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) and CARICOM (Caribbean Community) on issues related to the border dispute between Guyana and Venezuela,” the government said of the country in a communiqué.
Venezuela wants “territory” back
The U.S. Embassy in Georgetown said in a statement that the U.S. Southern Command, which oversees military operations in Central and South America, will “conduct air operations with the Guyanese military” and that the exercises are part of “routine deployments and enhancement operations.” . the) United States-Guyana Security Partnership.”
The Essequibo region. Source: Wikimedia Commons
Caracas views this as a foreign military intervention in a regional conflict. White House national security spokesman John Kirby said Washington supported a peaceful resolution to the border dispute and suggested avoiding military intervention.
Brazil has also intervened, expressing its opposition to a military clash that could destabilize the Latin American economy by sending troops to the border with Venezuela.
Any military incursion by Venezuela will be a “logistical challenge,” as Venezuelan soldiers would have to cross Brazilian territory to enter Essequibo due to difficult terrain elsewhere.
AFP quoted the Brazilian army as saying it was increasing its presence in the region as part of efforts to “guarantee the inviolability of the territory.”
Origins of the dispute
What sparked tensions, however, was a referendum last week in Venezuela in which “more than 95 percent” of voters reportedly supported the government's claim to Essequibo.
Voters also rejected the International Court of Justice's (ICJ) jurisdiction over the case. Analysts quoted by Portal said this was an attempt by Maduro to “show strength and support for his government ahead of the 2024 presidential election.”
A consortium of Exxon Mobil, China's CNOOC and US-based Hess began oil production in Guyana in 2019, which is currently about 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) and is expected to rise to over 1 million bpd by 2027. This has greatly boosted Guyana's economy and promises to increase its revenues over the years.
Although Venezuela has the world's largest crude oil reserves and vast reserves of natural gas, its production has collapsed in recent years “due to US sanctions, alleged corruption and deteriorating infrastructure,” Portal added.
Maduro has announced oil exploration in the Essequibo with state oil company PDVSA and state iron and steel manufacturer CVG.
Russia is “unofficially” neutral toward Venezuela
For its part, Russia, a traditionally close ally of Venezuela, has adopted a neutral position. Spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova said While Moscow “is closely following the developments surrounding Essequibo, it sees this as a matter of relations between Venezuela and Guyana, which should be settled in a neighborly manner.”
Given Russia's previous allegations of US interference in regional disputes elsewhere in the world, its neutral stance can be said to be an indirect criticism of Washington. Moscow has long accused Washington of preventing the affected countries from resolving conflicts diplomatically.
However, Moscow has not yet named the US directly, nor has it formally held diplomatic talks or communicated with Maduro, suggesting that it does not want to intervene indirectly in the dispute. There have also been no reports of Caracas seeking Russian intervention, suggesting Maduro does not want to turn it into a flashpoint for larger great power rivalries.
Such a move will not go down well even with other South American countries that oppose the US. In other words, Venezuela is largely alone in the conflict, with only diplomatic support from Russia and a chance to confront the U.S. military's Southern Command if it resorts to violence.
A section of foreign policy commentators also point out that Caracas is grappling with ExxonMobil, which they say is weaponizing the Guyanese government. This is also reflected in the government of Nicolás Maduro, and there have been no reports of diplomats attacking Guyana or President Irfaan Ali in their statements.
It can be said that this approach serves as a signal to Guyana that Caracas is open to dialogue.