On May 9, Russian generals wanted to celebrate their successes in Ukraine. Since these have not been made public so far, all hell can happen in Ukraine.
May 9 is an extremely important day in Russia. The surrender of the German army in 1945 is commemorated here. Every year Russia celebrates this date with a military parade in Moscow. The day also has special significance for the war in Ukraine. So far, numerous observers have assumed that Putin wants to deliver a victory in Ukraine by May 9.
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However, in a new report, experts from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) now suspect that Russia wants to launch a new military deployment that day. Authors Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds write: “May 9th turned from a deadline for victory to the beginning of a massive mobilization.” To achieve Russian objectives, a major summer offensive is said to be necessary.
The invasion continues “extremely bad”
Military analysts speculated after General Dvornikov’s appointment as supreme commander of the Russian invasion that Russian generals wanted to show Putin some tangible battlefield successes before May 9. At the same time, Dwornikov’s appointment was interpreted as a sign “that the Russians have realized that things are going extremely badly and that they need to do something different”.
Therefore, according to the experts in their report, the deadline will now have a different meaning for Russia: “It is increasingly likely that the Russian government will not use May 9 to announce victory, but as the day the ‘ special military operation’ is officially called ‘war’.” The shift to mobilization points to the preparation of a longer struggle, with May 9 being a “turning point”.
Lavrov speaks of “war by proxy”
Watling and Reynolds also note that the rhetoric in Russia is already shifting in this direction. The Russian leadership has long been talking about a conflict with NATO, as “Focus” reports. Recently, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov emphasized that NATO “has gone to war with Russia through proxies and is arming those proxies”.
It remains to be seen exactly how the Russian government will use May 9. It is possible that the invasion of Ukraine will soon also be described as a “war” by the Russian side – with both Ukraine and NATO.
Rfi navigation account, 20 minutes 04/30/2022, 09:49| Act: 04/30/2022, 10:23