The political scientist Jan Bremer says today in an interview with La Stampa that the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO is a defeat for Vladimir Putin, who unleashed the invasion of Ukraine precisely to end the entry into the Atlantic Alliance, which actually never started. But the conflict with Russia could now expand further: “Russia will increase its military presence, multiply its exercises, show more strength, invest in espionage, especially in neighboring countries. All of these are elements that contribute to increasing the level of risk. An accident can always happen, a sea attack or an air interception ». But there are other modalities that Moscow could implement: “Hybrid warfare from cyberattacks to disinformation particularly against Finland and Sweden. But also addressed to other NATO countries. It’s terrain the Russians have been in for a while, and I expect it to escalate. And then watch out for proxy wars, proxy wars. Moscow could set up bases in the western hemisphere, in Venezuela or in Cuba».
But the Russian economy is now weakening and relatively small: “The sanctions are biting and Moscow’s isolation from the West is increasing week by week. But even if it has different characteristics, there are aspects that make this new Cold War more destabilizing, mainly related to the hybrid war ». For Bremmer, “Russia’s removal from the West is permanent. With Biden accusing Putin of crimes against humanity and genocide, we can no longer say we will go back to business as usual. We are in a new dimension. And I repeat: permanently ».
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