Does inflation affect discounts as much as regular prices? The answer is no, and the explanation is pretty simple: the flyer is primarily an advertising tool for grocery stores.
Even if not all offers presented are so advantageous, the fact remains that the main goal of the circular is to attract you to the store, even if this means offering some products at a loss. Many discounts are also negotiated and planned with producers and processors.
Let’s take Vachon, the favorite cake brand of many Quebecers, to illustrate the phenomenon. Just before 2020, the list price for these boxes was around $3.49. That price is now around $5.29, an increase of almost 50% in just a few years. What about the special offers before 2020? At the time, the box was regularly on sale for $2.49. Nowadays the price can occasionally be found at $3, a 20% increase that is a little less difficult to swallow.
You could say it’s a rather simple analysis, because perhaps Vachon’s strategy has evolved to focus more on discounts. This still shows that the consumer who follows the special offers will see a significantly smaller increase than if they were used to shopping at the regular price. This is the case with a large number of processed products.
If we only analyze flyer data, it is also more difficult to observe inflation for specific products such as fruits and vegetables, as a variety of factors can influence the price, especially demand, supply, origin, abundance, season and weather. Remember that these are foods that generally need to be consumed quickly to avoid going to waste.
Record discounts in circulars are not uncommon for fruit and vegetables and sometimes even meat. For example, last week we had the best price ever observed for Rapini (IGA) since Glouton, my company, began compiling the data more than four years ago. Also this week we have the best price for ground pork in almost a year (IGA).
Beyond the first page
While it’s true that the offers that most appeal to you are usually on the first page of newsletters, it’s not uncommon to find “hidden” offers further down. On the other hand, they are less numerous and we need to know how to identify them. These offers are sometimes not highlighted for various reasons, such as inventory may not be sufficient, it is a product with lower demand, or the supplier does not have an agreement with the retailer.
Therefore, planning based on leaflets is probably still the best way to resist price increases.
Jean-François Gagné Bérubé is the founder of Glutton.ca.