The uprising of the later returned Wagner group against Russia’s military leaders opens up worrying scenarios for Europe. On the one hand, it “weakened” Russian President Vladimir Putin, which EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said could pose “a greater threat.” On the other hand, it will “not only have an impact on Ukraine, but also on Africa,” warned EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. While the leaders of Eastern European countries fear that by moving to Belarus, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mercenaries could “turn against us”.
Weakened Putin
During the EU summit in Brussels, concerns about the balance of power in Moscow became clear. The first thought is what an internally destabilized Russia might mean for the future of the war in Ukraine. The Baltic countries see the Wagner mutiny and Putin’s difficulties as good news for the continuation of the conflict. But Borrell is of a different opinion: “It is clear that Putin will emerge weakened from this crisis. But a weakened Putin is a greater danger,” said the EU High Representative. Putin, he added, would “lose what Machiavelli called the basis of the state, namely the monopoly on the use of force.” So far we have viewed Russia as a threat to its own strength, which it has used in Ukraine. Now we have seen it as a threat to its internal instability. We have to pay attention to the consequences, everything that happens remains unclear, for example who is behind this attempted military insurgency. Some generals have been arrested and I think Putin will want that to “clean up internally,” concluded Borrell.
Wagner’s future
Borrell’s fears were confirmed by von der Leyen’s about the future moves of the Wagner group. “This mutiny,” he said at the EU summit, “will have aftershocks (…) We also have to consider that Wagner’s uprising will not only have an impact on Ukraine, but also on Africa, because Putin’s power on the Ukraine has projected.” Africa through Wagner and therefore we will certainly see the effects of this uprising there as well.” The reference refers to the presence of Prigozhin’s mercenaries in countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso and the Central African Republic, where Wagner used those of the effectively occupied the gap left by French troops. It is also an important region as a hub for the flow of migrants to North Africa and from there to Europe.
How Wagner conquered Africa
The Belarusian platform
While von der Leyen is looking to Africa, Eastern European countries are looking to Belarus, where Prigozhin could move not only his residence but also some of his troops. “The fighter groups of these serial killers could be in Belarus at any moment and nobody knows when they could turn against us,” Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda told reporters. Poland’s President Andrzej Duda had also expressed the same concern in a recent meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg: According to Dua, Wagner’s arrival in Belarus could create a “serious and worrying” situation and require “strong decisions”. and a “very, very harsh response from” the Atlantic Alliance.
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