With the hasty departure of CAQ MP Joëlle Boutin, Jean Talon voters in Quebec will have to go to the polls again to elect a representative. However, the outcome of this by-election is very difficult to predict.
Voting intentions in the Quebec region have changed significantly in recent months. With the decline of the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) on the third tier, François Legault’s party lost support in favor of the Parti Québécois (PQ).
The last two Léger polls, released in May and June, place the PQ at the forefront of voting intentions in Quebec.
According to the inventor of the poll aggregator Qc125, Philippe J. Fournier, there is a risk of votes being carried over from CAQ voters to PQ.
Disappointed CAQ voters will not flock to Québec Solidaire (QS). They either stay at home or return to the PQ.
The current Qc125 projections assume that PQ, QS and CAQ are statistically equal in Jean-Talon.
The distribution of votes should therefore be significant and cause surprises. Perhaps 32% or 33% of the vote is enough to win on Jean-Talon because the vote is split, argues Mr Fournier.
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Philippe J. Fournier, inventor of Qc125 (file photo)
Photo: Radio Canada
voters for all parties
Citizens generally vote less in by-elections than in general elections. The average participation rate for the last ten partial tests was 37%.
However, voters in Jean-Talon appear to be more motivated. The average turnout in the last three partial elections in this constituency was 48%.
Higher turnout can change the strategy of political parties, which, when turning out, must try as much as possible to win the votes of their constituency in order to win.
Another element to consider is Jean-Talon’s demographics.
It is a constituency of people who are relatively well educated and may therefore have more progressive causes.
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Emmanuel Choquette, political scientist and professor in the Department of Communication at the University of Sherbrooke.
Photo: Radio Canada / Rejean Blais
For example, 48% of Jean-Talon’s population has a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared to 24% for all of Quebec.
Jean-Talon’s demographic is a mix of fairly affluent people who call the Sillery neighborhood home. There are students around Laval University. Sainte-Foy also has a good demographic mix, says Philippe J. Fournier.
“I think any of the major parties can find a voter base,” he adds.
The average household income of two or more people in Jean-Talon is US$133,000 compared to US$116,000 for the entire province.
Can the PQ win?
If we look at the polls, the PQ could be ahead at this moment, says Emmanuel Choquette.
The fact that Jean-Talon could be a winnable candidate for the PQ may seem surprising given that she was a liberal stronghold until the arrival of Caquiste Joëlle Boutin in 2019.
However, riding is already on the verge of falling into the hands of the PQ.
In 1994, Liberal candidate Margaret F. Delisle narrowly won by just 25 votes ahead of her PQ competitor Diane Lavallée. A similar scenario repeated itself in 1998. The PLQ kept the race by only 156 votes against the PQ.
The possibility that the PQ will inherit this feat from the CAQ is therefore not entirely absurd, and PQ chief Paul St-Pierre Plamondon knows it. The PQ opened up hostilities on social media on Thursday, less than 24 hours after Joëlle Boutin’s resignation, with postings suggesting they intended to beat the CAQ in Quebec.
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It is possible that Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s Parti Québécois will win riding Jean-Talon. Less than 24 hours after Joëlle Boutin’s resignation, the party has also opened hostilities on social networks. (archive photo)
Photo: The Canadian Press / Jacques Boissinot
Solidarity candidate Olivier Bolduc came second in the last election. He received 24% of the votes. Although it’s a good result, Philippe J. Fournier doubts the chances of QS during the part.
“I don’t think they have what it takes to win this district, but they have what it takes to have a good part of it,” he said.
Olivier Bolduc says he is currently considering rejoining Jean-Talon.
Éric Duhaime’s Conservative Party (PCQ) achieved its best result in the Quebec City region on October 3. However, his chances of winning at Jean-Talon are quite slim.
In the last election, the conservative Jean Talon candidate Sébastien Clavet received only 10% of the vote.
In comparison, other Quebec counties such as Chauveau, Bellechasse, Portneuf and La Peltrie had PCQ levels of 30% or more.
The PCQ has lost feathers since the election. He lost a few in Quebec. “I don’t see him as a great player,” claims Philippe J. Fournier.
Éric Duhaime doesn’t close the door to appear in Jean-Talon.
The task will also be difficult for the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ), even though it is historically a very red party. The two Léger polls give 6% and 7% respectively for civic education in the Quebec region. Support among Francophones is tenuous.
After the departure of a member, the government has six months to call a by-election. The estimated cost of such an election is $585,000. This will be the fourth installment in Jean-Talon since 2008.