CALGARY – Elias Lindholm had a brief but direct and hard-hitting media scrum Wednesday morning before the Calgary Flames’ annual preseason golf tournament.
In his mind, he has made his intentions known regarding his potential future with the Flames. The recent changes in the front office may not have been as important in his decision as we thought. Lindholm doesn’t need a hot start to convince him to sign a contract extension, which is quite different from his teammates Mikael Backlund and Noah Hanifin, whose teammates are still awaiting unrestricted free agent status. The Flames are currently the only team that can give him the longest tenure and pay him the money they believe he deserves.
What else is there to say if you’re Lindholm?
“I’ve made it pretty clear that I’m willing to stay,” Lindholm said Wednesday. One of many short answers in a crowd that lasted no more than five minutes. (For context, Hanifin’s text was a few seconds shorter, but his future outlook was more open and contained more words.)
This quote should be viewed as optimistic considering reports from earlier in the summer that suggested he wanted out. But it looks more like Lindholm has GM Craig Conroy and the Flames under control. By failing to sign or trade Lindholm this summer, the Flames have found themselves in a situation they wanted to avoid. The Flames must now fight to avoid repeating the sins that led to Johnny Gaudreau leaving as a free agent in 2022.
There is obviously a debate about whether the Flames should keep Lindholm or trade him. But the Flames will likely endure pain no matter which option they choose.
In Lindholm, they have a 28-year-old, defensively responsible first-line center in the final year of a reasonable $4.85 million AAV contract that, according to Cap Friendly, only five teams (Detroit, Nashville, Buffalo, Chicago and Anaheim ) have. can afford not to postpone salary at the moment. For those wondering and somehow still hoping, the projected cap space for Columbus is $4,729,167. The Flames’ chances of a good return will become even slimmer if these teams don’t get a guarantee that Lindholm will sign with them long-term.
Finally, teams like Colorado, Pittsburgh and St. Louis acquired centers this offseason, shrinking the pool even further.
“With the cap only going up a little bit and now not everyone is really sure where the cap is going next year, it’s been a little more difficult,” Conroy said.
Our Boston writer Fluto Shinzawa, for example, argued that the Bruins should hold off on Lindholm; Next summer, they could afford Lindholm with over $19 million in cap space if they trimmed some contracts from the books. Teams like Boston have some incentive to wait out the salary cap before spending millions on a new center.
The trade window for Lindholm’s departure has passed and likely won’t resurface until the trade deadline. If the Flames are not competitive by then and are unable to keep up with division opponents like Edmonton and Vegas, Conroy will be forced to leave Lindholm by then and look to recoup whatever assets he can for a rental. But what if the Flames are competitive at the trade deadline? What if the Flames’ talent actually fulfills and makes their playoff ambitions a reality?
“If we’re in first place in February, you hope the guys want to sign,” Conroy said.
It’s all well and good to hope. But the Flames experienced the same thing with Gaudreau during the 2021-22 season and he left for free. Even Matthew Tkachuk decided to get out while things were still going well.
But what if the Flames took a break and found a willing trade partner for Lindholm in training camp? What does this mean for Backlund and Hanifin and their respective wait-and-see approaches? Would they want to stay with a team that just flipped its No. 1 center? Lindholm, Backlund and Hanifin and their futures have been constantly lumped together this offseason, and it wouldn’t be surprising if a Lindholm move affected their thinking in some way. That might not mean they want to get out right away, but it would have some influence on them.
And for their teammates, who are aiming for a return to the playoffs.
“Every team has some guys on one-year deals and they have to decide what they want to do,” Flames forward Jonathan Huberdeau said. “I think we will be a good team. I think hopefully they’ll see that. That’s why we want everyone to stay. We fit together well here. We have a good locker room.”
But there’s still no breakthrough talent that can surpass them. That was a problem for the team last season. There will likely be a goals-by-committee approach again, at least for this season, as leading scorer Tyler Toffoli is no longer on the roster.
Maybe it depends on what they get in return in a Lindholm trade. An equal player? Younger players who can immediately contribute to a squad? Draft picks? What we do know is that if a Lindholm trade doesn’t give the Flames a backup No. 1 center, their playoff chances will take a direct hit.
Without Lindholm, the Flames would have to beat Nazem Kadri and Mikael Backlund at midcourt, 1-2. Lindholm may have had a down year last season compared to his Selke-nominated 2021-22 campaign, but the quality of the Flames’ center depth declines without him.
We’ve caused some havoc if the Flames trade Lindholm, so it’s only right that we do the same if they keep him. If the Flames sign Lindholm, it will mean doubling their number of 28-, 29- and 30-year-old players rather than building on a younger core with more manageable contracts. And you can forget about converting or rebuilding for the foreseeable future. Even though Lindholm is already 29 years old, he can easily make the case to demand money beyond Bo Horvat’s $8.5 million AAV contract.
That means if that core isn’t enough for the Flames to win the Stanley Cup, Lindholm’s contract could potentially become another hurdle for salary sacrifice, especially if the cap doesn’t rise as much as general managers hope over the next few seasons.
Conroy has to decide what he thinks is best for the Flames long-term. It won’t be an easy call.
(Top photo by Elias Lindholm: Norm Hall / NHLI via Getty Images)