The optimism surrounding the Cubs' 2023 season has evaporated in recent months, even after the surprise signing of Craig Counsell. Given the Cubs' lack of activity in free agency and on the trade market, it's difficult to imagine what the upcoming season will bring.
Barring a flurry of activity in the next few days, team president Jed Hoyer will face tough questions from fans and media at the Cubs convention about his inability so far to improve a roster that fell one game short of the postseason and two important ones Players lost were Marcus Stroman and Cody Bellinger.
Despite the frustration and general confusion over what the Cubs are doing, the front office appears to be sticking to its strategy and not panicking about the current free agent and trade landscape. They still see numerous paths to success. (The following is based on numerous conversations with league and team sources over the past month.)
Even after hiring Counsell, the Cubs' plan for this offseason didn't change. They never viewed 2024 as an all-in season and have not wavered from that belief. They are always looking to improve the roster and the consensus is that it takes a bit of “irrationality” to sign the best free agents. There is a belief in the front office that this is sometimes necessary and a willingness to adapt to the markets when necessary. But when they faced off against multiple “irrational” bidders, the Cubs didn’t believe it was the right time to move up to that level.
The hiring of Craig Counsell as manager did not change the Cubs' player acquisition plans for the offseason. (Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images)
From the start of the winter, Shohei Ohtani was always considered an outsider and the pursuit went largely as expected. The Cubs engaged San Diego in Juan Soto trade talks, but ultimately realized that what the Yankees were willing to give up did not match where the Cubs were willing to go in terms of potential capital.
The Cubs lost early to Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, which seemed strange considering Yamamoto is a 25-year-old starter many consider a trump card. This type of player fits into any timeline. But the front office understood where these negotiations would lead, and it wasn't about to devote time and manpower to a chase it never thought was realistic. Unlike the Los Angeles Dodgers, they were unwilling to make Yamamoto the highest-paid pitcher of all time.
There is an awareness in the Cubs' front office that in order to sign certain free agents, a team will likely have to exceed what was initially considered a reasonable price for that player. What those in charge are weighing in this process is the value of adding that player versus the subsequent opportunity cost that contract will incur. Given the Cubs' position relative to other teams, expanding their risk tolerance doesn't make sense for them. The aforementioned trio of players obviously fit the Cubs' needs, but the cost simply wasn't worth it in their opinion at this point.
But “risk tolerance” and “opportunity cost” are the kind of modern front office jargon that glazes fans’ eyes and irritates those who just want to see a team behave like that in a big market. The front office must stick to the budget given by the owner and consider how to use it both in the present and in the future.
Sticking to these concepts has resulted in a very boring offseason so far. Ultimately, fans want entertainment, but the front office isn't going to dictate its decisions that way. That doesn't mean officials don't want to satisfy fans' strong desire to be relevant, but as Hoyer has said repeatedly, the Cubs' goal is never to win in the offseason. You can satisfy those who strive for improvement by simply implementing their plan this winter and turning it into success in the summer.
The Cubs would have preferred to have most of their work done at this point, as they did last winter. But the way this market has played out, no trade or free agent deal has reached a level that would make sense to execute in the Cubs' eyes.
As of Sunday night, 23 of The Athletic's top 40 free agents were still unsigned. Bellinger, Rhys Hoskins, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman are all very realistic targets that would improve the Cubs' current roster. Shoto Imanaga fits the bill, even if the Cubs aren't considered favorites to sign him. Even players the Cubs probably don't consider a priority — like Josh Hader or Blake Snell — can't be ruled out entirely. At a certain point, every player can become attractive. However, short of his market completely collapsing, signing a closer like Hader seems highly unlikely given the way the Cubs front office operates. Such a move would be the final touch for a championship-caliber squad, rather than a team that still has some holes to fill.
A reunion with Cody Bellinger still makes sense for the Cubs. (Matt Dirksen/Getty Images)
It's been a month since Hoyer spoke of the need to “have lots of lines in the water.” Fans may be wondering why nothing has been done yet, but by all accounts, despite the Cubs' inactivity, that's exactly what those in charge have done. They found out about the availability of certain swap candidates from all 29 teams and actively held discussions with numerous clubs. They continue to negotiate with agents to lure players to Chicago to address the Cubs' needs.
If you're very patient, it could benefit the Cubs. This was always going to be their best chance to re-sign Bellinger, and so far it's going almost as well as they hoped. However, this strategy comes with a risk factor. The longer the Cubs sit, the greater the chance they will end up with too many holes to fill and not enough players to fill them. If that were to happen, they would lose all bargaining power and the bad deals they had avoided earlier in the offseason would suddenly become even worse.
But if the market suddenly moves and the Cubs are caught flat-footed, then Hoyer, Carter Hawkins and the rest of the front office haven't done their job. They are trusted to have a strong pulse on the market and must adjust their aggressiveness accordingly.
Ultimately, the goal for the offseason remains the same: continue to grow and maintain the momentum the Cubs have built after a strong but unsatisfying 2023 season. The Cubs are exploring several position player options that can improve their offense. With the departure of Stroman and the issues in the bullpen, holes need to be filled. Regardless of depth, the Cubs always view pitching as an area of need.
There's always the possibility that it all goes wrong, the possibility that the Cubs end up with a roster that looks worse on paper than the 2023 group, and Hoyer frets about following a flawed plan too closely. But that hasn't happened yet. Although some options have been eliminated, there are still opportunities to significantly improve this team and several realistic paths, both via trade and free agency. From the Cubs' perspective, this offseason's slow pace won't matter if they win in July.
(Top photo by Hoyer: Nuccio DiNuzzo / Getty Images)