Starting this week, NATO will begin the largest military exercise since the end of the Cold War over several months. Large-scale maneuvers were intended to prepare the alliance for a high-intensity conflict and deter the Kremlin from rubbing up against its eastern flank amid a conflict with Ukraine.
90,000 troops were mobilized, including American reinforcements from North America, 50 warships, 80 aircraft and more than 1,100 combat vehicles, including 133 tanks, which were deployed for several months: NATO saw big things for its “Steadfast Defender 2024”, the most important of The Atlantic Alliance has organized military exercises for decades.
For comparison, only 9,000 soldiers were mobilized in the last edition of the exercise in 2021. In recent times, only Operation Trident Juncture in 2018 could claim to have achieved a comparable scale with its 50,000 participants.
“This will be a clear demonstration of our unity, our strength and our determination to protect each other,” argued the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe (Saceur), American General Christopher Cavoli, on January 18 during a press conference in Brussels Alliance headquarters.
“This is a record in terms of the number of soldiers,” emphasized during the same press conference Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the NATO Military Committee, which brings together heads of state.
To carry out this large-scale exercise, the alliance's 31 countries will contribute troops as well as Sweden, which hopes to join NATO soon after a green light from Turkey.
The largest European contributor, the United Kingdom, will deploy 20,000 troops alone as part of these exercises, Defense Secretary Grant Shapps announced on Monday, January 21st.
The challenge of conflict in five dimensions
To find such a show of force on the part of NATO, we must look back to the 1988 “Reforger” exercise, which deployed 120,000 troops to Europe in the midst of the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the Atlantic Alliance.
“We're no longer in the habit of doing it, but during the Cold War this type of exercise was NATO's daily bread and took place every two years. From the 1990s onwards, this was considered the so-called “dividend of peace”. War was no longer possible in Europe. Here we are returning to the basics of a high-intensity conflict,” analyzes General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission to the United Nations in New York.
If Russia is never mentioned by NATO, it is actually the scenario of aggression by an “adversary of comparable size” to the alliance being simulated on its eastern flank. In other words, the triggering of Article 5, which provides for mutual assistance between Member States in the event of an attack.
“This is an exercise that has undoubtedly been in preparation for at least two years,” estimates Olivier Kempf, director of La Vigie and associate researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research. “Then it is possible that in the context of the war in Ukraine, the Allies wanted to increase the size of the exercise in order to benefit from better feedback,” the expert adds.
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If NATO organizes “war games” throughout the year, Steadfast Defender also stands out for its ambition to have all components of the allied armies working together.
“During this exercise we will have multiple divisions or even army corps. This is an unusual scale because it involves difficulties in logistics, coordination and communications because it is necessary to establish a complete radio system in a fairly limited area. “It is extremely complicated if you add the coordination with the Navy and the Air Force,” notes Olivier Kempf.
“Especially since there is no longer just air, land and sea coordination, but also cyber and space. We are now in five dimensions,” adds Dominique Trinquand. According to the military expert, part of Steadfast Defender 2024 will take place in the Baltic States, “NATO's sensitive point,” which has a maritime facade and where alliance soldiers have been stationed since 2014. Date of annexation of Crimea.
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According to Portal, the second part of the Steadfast Defender exercise will focus on the deployment of NATO's rapid reaction force in Poland.
“If you want peace, prepare for war”
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Atlantic Alliance has continued to increase its “forward presence” on the eastern flank, sending thousands of people there. Notably, the Allies created four additional multinational battle groups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia, increasing the number of these NATO units operating alongside each country's national armed forces to eight.
The prospect of this extraordinary mobilization of NATO forces quickly triggered a reaction in Moscow, which has perceived the alliance's eastward expansion as an existential threat for years.
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“These exercises are another element of the hybrid war that the West has unleashed against Russia,” Russia's deputy foreign minister said in comments published on Sunday by the state news agency RIA.
“An exercise of this magnitude (…) marks the final and irrevocable return of NATO to the patterns of the Cold War, when the military planning process, resources and infrastructure were prepared for the confrontation with Russia,” Alexandre Groushko added.
If the Russian narrative tries to portray this military exercise as an escalation instigated by the West, the objective pursued by NATO is in fact chilling, reminds General Dominique Trinquand.
“Armies must prepare for the worst-case scenario and hope it doesn’t happen. This is about telling the Russians not to go any further and showing them that we are prepared if by chance they haven't actually done so.” “We understand the message,” explains the former head of the French military mission at the United Nations in New York.
“Paradoxically, we have to see this as something reassuring,” adds Olivier Kempf. “To be clear: This is not a signal of escalation. It is a signal of conventional deterrence to maintain peace.”
