World news today: Ukraine, Putin, Prigozhin Limes

Charter of Laura Canali – 2022

05/24/2023

The geopolitical summary of the day.

• Ukrainian War – Israel Model – In recent days, NATO countries have been discussing the possibility of involving Ukraine in a security agreement similar to the one in force for Israel. A similar hypothesis was already put forward in September 2022 (Kyiv Security Pact) and is now back on the table by various actors. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Polish President Andrzej Duda revealed that discussions on the issue are “currently ongoing”. An Israeli-style security agreement for Ukraine would prioritize the transfer of arms and cutting-edge technology, but does not categorically rule out Kiev’s future NATO membership. However, this scenario is ruled out in the short term, also (but not only) because it would amount to NATO getting involved in a conflict with the Russian Federation. Duda then specified that the proposal was not linked to any kind of peace, process or negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow: “Today, Russia must understand that Ukraine has these security guarantees and that they will not change with time or with the weariness of the West be forfeited.” “.

• Ukrainian War – France – The French Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement commenting on the “Israel model” hypothesis put forward by the WSJ: “Together with its partners, France continues to reflect on how best to support Ukraine in the long term and in all areas.” Paris is ready to enter into agreements with Kiev aimed at providing it with security guarantees that will help it defend itself in the long term and prevent possible future aggression, as our leaders said in the statement of the 36th Franco-British summit.”
  The official French position is causing debate as it is a far cry from President Emmanuel Macron’s earlier announcements of “not humiliating Putin”, “providing security guarantees to Russia” and Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the EU. However, Paris has not changed its basic positions: the “Israel model” means for France to keep Kiev out of NATO. The reference to the Franco-British summit is also noteworthy: if, on the one hand, the connection with the Euro-Western power, which is most pro-Kiev, serves to honor the position of Paris, on the other hand, it is significant that Germany did not recall, even though he negotiated the Minsk agreements with France.

• Ukrainian War – Cartography after Putin – President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin again argued that “there was no Ukraine” before the Soviet Union. During a meeting with the President of the Constitutional Court, Valery Zorkin, the Kremlin tenant was filmed commenting on a 17th-century French map marking Ukraine as the “land of the Cossacks”. In the video, the two therefore argue that there was no Ukrainian state at the time of Louis XIV and that the corresponding region was part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Subsequently, Putin explains, these areas became part of Moscow and only after the October Revolution did a state form: “Soviet law created the Soviet Ukraine.” Up to that point in the history of mankind there had never been a Ukraine.”
  The “historical-mapping” meeting with the highest jurist of the Russian Federation serves both to justify the “special military operation” in Ukraine and to preserve some discretion in determining the future borders of the annexed territories (unless they are recaptured by Kiev ). .
  Read more: “Russians and Ukrainians are one people” (Article by Vladimir Putin of July 12, 2021)

🎨 Map: Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (16th-17th centuries)

• Ukrainian war – Prigozhin’s words – In an interview with pro-Kremlin political observer Konstantin Dolgov, the head of private military company Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said that the Russian Federation’s plan to “demilitarize” Ukraine with a large-scale “military special operation” failed and instead the army turned from Kiev to one of the “most powerful in the world”. What’s more, thanks to the West’s tireless support, the attacked country would have even been strengthened: “The Ukrainian armed forces now have a high level of organizational ability, a high level of training, a high level of intelligence.” They have various types of weapons and, most importantly, , they can easily and successfully work with all systems, both Soviet and NATO systems.
  With the openness that has characterized him in recent months, the “Putin boss” denounced the high military offices of the Federation: “They did a lot of nonsense.” How can one explain the cross-border invasion of the Freedom Legion for Russia and the Russian Volunteer Corps in allow Belgorod Oblast or cause heavy troop casualties, including some “20,000” Wagner supporters during the months of the siege at Bakhmut?
  Prigozhin then attacked his main political rival, Defense Minister Sergei Soygu, for allowing the children of Russia’s elite to evade mobilization to “enjoy life and have fun in Dubai or elsewhere.” According to the St. Petersburg oligarch, the incompetence of the military leadership could even lead to “what happened in 1917”, that is, a mass mutiny of soldiers that led to the October Revolution: “We have come to a point where we could fucking lose Russia . We must impose martial law. And prepare the population for “an arduous war”.
  Prigozhin’s weighty words are very clever: he praises the forces of Kiev and his own mercenary group, which is capable of defeating a well-organized regular army armed by Westerners at Bakhmut. by denouncing the incompetence of senior defense officials, it seeks to increase its influence in Moscow’s control room; By admitting the thousands dead in Wagner’s ranks, he indirectly demands generous political or economic compensation; Pushing for tightening regulations and preparing for a long conflict, he portrays himself as a strongman capable of playing a major role in the post-Putin era, perhaps even taking up residence in the Kremlin.

📺 Putin and a winless victory parade. The case of Prigozhin

• Israel – judicial reform – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu argues that now that the state budget is approved, it is time to refocus on the judiciary reform that has rocked the country so badly. “Re Bibi” hopes that it will be possible to “make new agreements”. For his part, Justice Minister Yariv Levin said he had no reason to remain in office unless significant progress was made by July.
  Further information: The real risks of judicial reform

• Iran-Indonesia – Dedollarization – Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi made an official visit to Indonesia, where he met his counterpart Joko Widodo, known as “Jokowi”. The two leaders reiterated that the governments of Tehran and Jakarta intend to stop using the US dollar in bilateral trade deals. Raisi then stated that both sides are willing to use their respective national currencies: the rial and the Indonesian rupiah. The two countries also want to increase bilateral trade to $20 billion a year. A massive number considering the trade value stopped at $1 billion in 2022. Raisi and Jokowi therefore signed twelve memorandums of understanding in which they emphasized that “sanctions and threats have failed to block Iran”. The meeting certainly angered the United States, which does not welcome Tehran’s plans in the Indo-Pacific and notes an extension of the list of non-Western countries inclined to abandon the dollar as a reference currency.
  Vintage Limes: The Roses of Jakarta

Essay by Francesca Canali – 2020