Days after Vladimir Putin was hit with an international arrest warrant for alleged war crimes in Ukraine, Xi Jinping’s first state visit to Moscow in four years is a demonstration of the Chinese leader’s commitment to the Russian president – but he will also be crossing the red lines in the highlighting what the couple described as a “no limits partnership” last year.
Putin, who defiantly traveled to occupied Ukraine over the weekend after the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant, will hope Xi’s three-day visit from Monday will lend legitimacy to his invasion of Ukraine and that China may pledge material support to help his military to help combat.
But there are signs Xi will remain wary of the potential costs of friendship with Russia’s leader, particularly in Europe, as Beijing seeks to boost trade after its zero-Covid policy devastated its economy last year. And despite US warnings that China is considering sending arms to Russia, there has so far been little evidence of significant arms flows between the two countries.
After his trip to Moscow, Xi may call Putin’s nemesis, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, according to a person familiar with the matter. It would be Xi’s first direct contact with Zelenskyy since the full-scale invasion and a sign of the limitations China sees in its alliance with Russia at a time when Beijing is looking to assert itself as a potential peacemaker.
“I think he’s going to make the call,” said Yu Jie, a senior research fellow for China in the Asia-Pacific program at Chatham House. “China simply cannot afford to become a rival to both the US and Europe.”
Beijing’s close wartime ties with Moscow, which analysts describe as “pro-Russian neutrality,” are damaging its image in Europe. While China’s position paper last month on a possible solution in Ukraine was met with skepticism in the West, it’s an opportunity for Beijing to reposition itself and see how the conflict unfolds, analysts say.
The challenge for Xi is to balance these concerns with the benefits of closer ties with Moscow at a time of rising tensions with the US and its allies.
“The war in Ukraine has exacerbated great power rivalry and made the geopolitical fault lines between the US and China even clearer, and in response, China and Russia are now really tightening their alignment,” said Alexander Korolev, an expert on Sino-Russian relations at the university of New South Wales in Sydney.
“China will need Russia for its upcoming confrontation with the US, which is becoming very real,” he added, citing closer military ties between the two countries and Beijing’s need to prepare alternative energy supply routes in case Middle East oil imports are made by sea have been blocked in every clash with the US over Taiwan.
As Europe and the US imposed tough sanctions on Russia, China’s trade with its neighbor has skyrocketed over the past year, rising 34.3 percent to a record RMB1.28 trillion, according to state-controlled Chinese media. Natural gas imports from Russia are expected to increase by a third this year.
Trade with Beijing has given Russia an economic lifeline, offsetting some lost oil sales to the US and Europe and supplying replacements for key Western-made components such as microchips, 5G equipment and industrial machinery.
“[The Chinese] understand that this is a very advantageous moment for them to put Russia deeper in their pockets. They have tremendous influence,” said Alexander Gabuev, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Putin’s portrayal of the war as part of a broader conflict with the West has brought the two countries closer. Russia is a useful partner in China’s effort to stand up to the US “hegemon,” analysts say. Russia’s powerful Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev backed Beijing’s stance on Taiwan when he met China’s top diplomat Wang Yi last month.
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“For Russia, the restrictions that existed before are gone,” Gabuev said. “Putin is obsessed with this war and the partnership will bring him an economic lifeline, critical components for his military machine and China a tool to fight back against the US – because the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”
Deepening ties between Beijing and Moscow prompted US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to warn last month that any material Chinese support for the Russian military would have “serious consequences” for relations with the US.
China has responded that the West is fueling the conflict with its arms sales to Ukraine. “China was neither the cause nor the trigger of the Ukraine crisis, nor did it provide arms to any party to the conflict,” Qin Gang, China’s foreign minister, said this month.
But while ties with Russia remain important, China has limited options for stabilizing ties with major trading partners in the West.
Xi will have a chance to meet US President Joe Biden at two summits this year, but with a US election next year, chances of further rapprochement with Washington will be limited. And while several European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, plan to visit China this year, the success of these meetings will depend on how far Xi supports Russia in Ukraine.
That’s why Beijing’s efforts to portray itself as a go-between are important, analysts say. China had a rare success in conflict resolution this month when it negotiated a deal to restore diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Resolving the Ukraine conflict would be far more difficult, analysts say. China’s position paper last month did not condemn the Russian invasion and contained thinly veiled criticism of the West and NATO.
China “lacks the status of an impartial mediator in the Ukraine conflict because of its significant support for Russia,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha University in Seoul. “For China to be helpful, it should not suggest what can compromise Kiev, but rather find a face-saving way for Moscow to withdraw forces.”
A contact between Xi and Zelenskyy would be a concession by China to Western skepticism. But each contact was likely virtual rather than in-person and the results inconclusive, analysts said, as Xi tried to balance China’s desire to play peacemaker against backing down to the US.
Beijing viewed the Ukraine conflict as a proxy fight pitting Russia against NATO and the US, and “Zelenskyi lacks decision-making power,” said an expert at a Chinese think tank in Beijing.
“All him [Zelenskyy] can do is relay the message to Joe Biden. President Xi does not have to support Zelenskyy by meeting in person. China respects Ukraine’s interests. But that is different from prioritizing US interests.”
Additional reporting by Sun Yu in Beijing, Kathrin Hille in Taipei and Edward White in Seoul