Asian Stocks Rise Ahead of US Data, Bitcoin Gains: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Stocks in Asia rose as U.S. stock futures beat the Federal Reserve's key inflation measure that will help determine the path forward for interest rates. Bitcoin rose above $61,000.
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Korean and Indian stocks fell while Chinese stocks rose after Wednesday's selloff. The yen rose the most against the dollar in more than a week after Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata signaled that the case for an end to negative interest rate policies was gaining momentum. U.S. stock futures reversed an earlier decline after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 suffered losses overnight.
Chinese stocks have rallied sharply this month and are poised for their biggest outperformance against global stocks since July after authorities took a series of measures to lift sentiment. Investors are looking forward to the National People's Congress meeting next week to take further support measures.
“The momentum could continue until the NPC takes effect” on March 5, with much of the focus on ministerial comments on capital markets reform and industrial policy, said Redmond Wong, strategist at Saxo Capital Markets. But “increased prices can set the stage for disappointment,” he said.
Bitcoin extended gains after rising above $60,000 for the first time in more than two years on Wednesday, reflecting new demand from exchange-traded funds. The currency almost reached the $64,000 mark. The record high in 2021 is just under $69,000.
Other notable moves in Asian stocks included a rise in Japanese lender Aozora Bank Ltd. after a fund linked to activist investor Yoshiko Murakami reported an investment. Alibaba shares fell in Hong Kong after the company introduced its second major cloud service cost cuts in years.
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There were declines in US stocks overnight as data showed strong consumer spending despite a small correction in US gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter of 2023. The report is ahead of the Fed's preferred inflation indicator expected on Thursday and broadly supported the caution expressed by Fed officials in recent weeks.
Government bonds in Asia were steady after a rally began on Wednesday that saw the 10-year Treasury yield fall four basis points and the policy-sensitive two-year Treasury note slip six basis points. Australian yields reflected the move in early Asian trading, while New Zealand yields were broadly unchanged.
Yen is rising
The dollar was slightly weak against major currencies after rising on Wednesday. The yen rose as high as 149.70 against the dollar as investors suspected a likely narrowing of the interest rate differential between Japan and the United States.
“We expect the BOJ to use this reflationary environment to exit negative interest rates, but the monetary policy stance will remain very accommodative through 2025,” Jessica Hinds, director at Fitch Ratings, said in a note.
In Asia, economic reports out on Thursday include fourth-quarter GDP data for India, current account balance for Thailand and inflation data for Sri Lanka and Vietnam.
New York Fed President John Williams said Wednesday that the central bank still has “a long way to go” in its fight against inflation, and Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic urged patience in the process political changes. Overall, recent comments from Fed officials underscore the importance of data in guiding policy.
After a rise in both the consumer and producer price indexes, Thursday's core personal consumption expenditure measure is likely to highlight the bumpy road the central bank faces to reach its 2 percent target. The PCE can be seen confirming recent comments from officials who show no rush to ease monetary policy.
“Recent data is 'noise' and should be ignored other than its impact on very short-term market movements,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at the Independent Advisor Alliance. “We are more interested in the PCE data.”
Traders are currently expecting around 80 basis points of easing by year-end – almost in line with what officials said in December was the most likely outcome. That would equate to three cuts in 2024 – since Fed actions have historically come in 25 basis point increments. To put things into perspective, in early February the swaps were forecasting cuts of almost 150 basis points this year.
Elsewhere, SQM, the world's second-largest lithium producer, reported an 82% drop in quarterly profits due to the global glut of battery material, which the company expects will keep prices depressed this year.
Important events this week:
Germany CPI, unemployment, Thursday
US consumer income, PCE deflator, initial jobless claims, Thursday
The Fed's Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic and Loretta Mester speak on Thursday
China's official PMI, Caixin manufacturing PMI, Friday
Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, CPI, Unemployment, Friday
BOE chief economist Huw Pill speaks on Friday
US Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Friday
The Fed's Raphael Bostic and Mary Daly speak on Friday
Some of the key moves in the markets:
Shares
S&P 500 futures were little changed at 2:17 p.m. Tokyo time
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.1%
Japan's Topix has hardly been changed
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.5%
Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.2%
The Shanghai Composite rose 0.9%
Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.1%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
The euro was little changed at $1.0833
The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 149.84 per dollar
The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.2097 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 2.3% to $61,966.46
Ether rose 3.4% to $3,436.11
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raw materials
This story was produced with support from Bloomberg Automation.
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