“We will also see a shortage of products,” Mr Koepke said. Although it is now a slower season, he said, “companies are increasing their volumes over the summer and this will have a big impact on our supply chain.”
In a stream of updates Monday, several Wall Street analysts and economists admitted they underestimated the extent of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the international response. With the rapid accumulation of events, estimates of potential economic consequences ranged from mild to severe.
Inflation was already a problem, reaching its highest level in the United States since the 1980s. Now questions about how much more inflation could rise – and how the Federal Reserve and other central banks are reacting – hung over every scenario.
“The Fed is in a box, inflation is 7.5 percent, but they know that raising interest rates will destroy markets,” said Desmond Lachman, a senior fellow at the American Institute of Entrepreneurship. “The choice of policy is not a good one, so I don’t see how happy it is.
Others were more cautious about the spillover effects given the isolation of the Russian economy.
Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said there were unpleasant questions, especially in Europe, about what the conflict would mean for inflation – and whether it was a prospect of stagflation in which economic growth slows and prices rise rapidly.
This does not mean that there will be no severe pain spots. Mr Posen noted that a handful of banks in Europe could be affected by their exposure to Russia’s financial system and that Eastern European companies could lose access to money in the country.
Thousands of people fleeing Ukraine are also moving to neighboring countries such as Poland, Moldova and Romania, which could increase their spending.
Turkey’s economy, which is already struggling, is likely to suffer a blow. Oxford Economics lowered its forecast for Turkey’s annual growth by 0.4 percentage points to 2.1 percent due to rising energy prices, financial market disruptions and declining tourism.
Map 1 of 6Growing concern. Russia’s attack on Ukraine could cause dizzying spikes in energy and food prices and could scare investors. The economic damage from supply disruptions and economic sanctions would be severe in some countries and industries and unnoticed in others.
The price of energy. Oil prices are already the highest since 2014 and have risen as the conflict escalates. Russia is the third largest oil producer, providing approximately one in 10 barrels consumed by the global economy.
Gas supplies. Europe receives nearly 40 percent of its natural gas from Russia and is likely to be overwhelmed by higher heating bills. Natural gas supplies are running low, and European leaders have accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of cutting supplies to gain a political advantage.
Lack of base metals. The price of palladium, used in car exhaust systems and mobile phones, is rising amid fears that Russia, the world’s largest metal exporter, could be cut off from world markets. The price of nickel, another key Russian export, is also rising.
Financial turmoil. Global banks are preparing for the effects of sanctions designed to limit Russia’s access to foreign capital and limit its ability to process payments in dollars, euros and other currencies that are crucial to trade. Banks are also on the lookout for retaliatory cyber attacks from Russia.
In 2021, 19% of its visitors come from Russia and 8.3% from Ukraine. Inflation, which has peaked at nearly 50 percent in two decades, is now estimated at 60 percent, Oxford said.
In the United States, the chairman of the Biden Board of Economic Advisers, Cecilia Rose, said the biggest impact on the US economy since the war has been rising gas prices. “It definitely darkened the outlook,” she told a forum in Washington.
Gasoline prices are about a dollar higher than a year ago, with a national average of $ 3.61 a gallon, according to the AAA.
Rising energy prices are hard on consumers, although they are good for producers – and the US economy has both.
Other oil-producing countries will also see revenue growth. And for Iran, which has been cut off from the global economy for years, demand for oil from other sources could help smooth talks to lift sanctions.
In the long run, the current conflict is likely to have an impact on the future budgetary decisions of several countries. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has announced that he will increase military spending to 2 percent of his economic output.
“Defense spending has been steadily declining in the world since World War II,” Jim Reed, managing director of Deutsche Bank, said in a note Monday. Now, with this change in “geopolitical tectonic plates,” he said, priorities are changing and “those levels are likely to rise.”
In Russia, the central bank and government have taken a series of actions, including doubling key interest rates to 20 percent to boost the ruble’s attractiveness, banning people from transferring money abroad and closing the stock market to contain damage and reduce panic.
“What is happening right now is that we are looking at the breakdown of one of the largest economies on the planet,” said Karl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. “And from what I know about tactics, it’s a dangerous tactic.”
Peter C. Goodman and Jeanne Smialek contributed to the reporting.
This is the story of Warren Buffett’s latest letter to Berkshire Hathaway and one of the biggest clichés in business. In fact, if you follow the best business leaders, I’m sure you’ve heard it over and over again:
“Our people are our strength.”
Or, “All of you – employees, shareholders, stakeholders, people – are making it possible.”
Or, “We can’t do any of this without our people.”
You’ve probably heard it until (unfortunately) you’re not sure that business leaders themselves really believe it.
Remember that feeling. We will return to it. For now, though, let’s talk about Buffett’s best letter over the weekend.
As every year, there are many things in it. We can start with the numbers: $ 90 billion in net revenue that Berkshire reported in 2021, and $ 3.3 billion in federal taxes that the company paid, which turns out to be about .8 percent of all federal corporate taxes collected by the Department. of US finance.
“I gave in the office is an indisputable statement made by Berkshire shareholders,” Buffett wrote.
Also, as he has done in recent years, Buffett is working on updates to the Big Four’s giant holdings, which currently include Berkshire’s largest investments:
their insurance companies,
5.55% stake in Apple
railway operations and
its energy operations, Berkshire Hathaway Energy.
Now, as ordinary readers may know, I tend to review this letter every year when it comes out, looking at it as broadly as possible: I look critically at what Buffett includes, what he doesn’t miss, and the small details he adds make it a little more captivating from many corporate reports.
This year, two things made me sit back and pay attention as I read the letter for the second or third time:
The first is a passage, which I will quote below, about the life and professional goals that Buffett says encourages an audience of students to pursue.
The second is the long list of individuals that Buffett mentions – some of them expected, but really two that stood out in my later readings.
Let us first quote the passage. Buffett says that when talking to university students, he advises them to try to find work in the field they are most interested in, but only while working with “the kind of people they would choose if they didn’t need money.”
Yes, he admits, financial considerations can get in the way. But the 91-year-old (his longtime chief operating officer and partner, Charlie Munger, is 98) says he has learned that if you eventually find the situation, then “work” is no longer like work.
Charlie and I followed this liberating course after a few early setbacks. … [A]t Berkshire, we have discovered what we love to do.
With very few exceptions, we have been “working” for many decades with people we like and trust. This is the joy of life … In our home office we hire worthy and talented people – no jokes. The turnover is on average maybe one person per year.
Do you see what I’m aiming for? Indeed, these are the eight words: “We employ decent and talented people – no fools.”
So many business leaders are talking about the good game we saw above. But sometimes it’s hard to really, really believe (and act on conviction) that “our people are our greatest asset.”
It is one thing to share banal words; it is another to have the courage to act on that belief when, say, your need for a specific set of skills collides with your “no kidding” policy.
Here is the second small detail that stood out to me: the people that Buffett takes the time to mention by name.
Of course, some of them are to be expected. Munger is mentioned by name 15 times; Apple’s Tim Cook received only one mention, but Buffett described him as “brilliant.”
There are also vignettes for Ajit Jane and Greg Abel, Berkshire’s top executives, who have been mentioned for years as potential successors to Buffett himself. Abel received the nod last year, so maybe that’s why Buffett spends time with Jaina first, offering an incredible memory of what it was like to hire him.
We met for the first time on Saturday morning, and I quickly asked Ajit what his insurance record was. He replied, “Nobody.”
I said, “Nobody’s perfect,” and I hired him. This was my lucky day: Ajit was actually as perfect a choice as could be made. Even better, he continues to be, 35 years later.
Still, two other names pop up. Buffett dedicated nearly 1,000 words of this 4,500-word letter to Paul Andrews, who was the founder and CEO of the Berkshire TTI subsidiary and who died about a year ago at the age of 78.
I’m not going to reprint the whole story of Andrews’ company and how Berkshire acquired it, but the title used by Buffett at the top of the section clarifies the mood: “A wonderful person and a wonderful business“
Finally, there is another person mentioned by name, which I think leads to the essence. That is, when Buffett talks about another important acquisition, it makes sense to include this otherwise redundant line:
“Deb Bosanek, my assistant, has scheduled the opening dinner on board …”
People who follow Buffett closely already know who Bosanek is. However, it is striking to me that Buffett describes a meeting that took place 12 years ago, but leaves aside who organized the trip and dinner, just so that he could include his assistant’s name in the document.
Again, if Buffett hadn’t been 91 years old and in a clearly thoughtful and advising mood, I’m not sure I would have understood that. But he is, and this is not the only time Buffett has done such a thing.
In my free ebook, Warren Buffett predicts the future, I include some other examples of people that Buffett has mentioned in the past. My favorite example is someone most people have never heard of: the man Buffett describes as his “hero,” Charles Feeney.
I hope that Buffett will have many more years to write these letters and people like me to read and write about them, but this stands out in that it helps to remove only a small part of the skepticism that many of us feel when hear the CEO says something like, “Our people are our biggest asset.”
Is it a cliché? Maybe not, if you really believe. Anyway, maybe it’s a cliché because it’s so true.
The views expressed here by Inc.com columnists are their own, not Inc.com’s.
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In fact, if you follow top business leaders, I’m sure you’ve heard it over and over:
\n\t\”Our people are our strength.\”
\tOr: \”It’s all of you — the employees, the shareholders, the stakeholders, the people — who make this possible.\”
\tOr: \”We can’t do any of this without our people.\”
\nYou’ve probably heard it until (sadly) you’re not sure that the business leaders themselves actually believe it.
\nRemember that sentiment. We’ll circle back to it. For the moment, however, let’s talk about Buffett’s most letter, which was released over the weekend.
\nJust like every year, there’s a lot packed into it. We can start with the numbers: the $90 billion in net earnings that Berkshire reported during 2021, and the $3.3 billion in federal taxes the company paid, which turns out to about .8 percent of all federal corporate income taxes collected by the U.S. Treasury.
\n\”‘I gave at the office,’ is an unassailable assertion when made by Berkshire shareholders,\” Buffett wrote.
\nAlso, as he has done in recent years, Buffett worked through updates on the \”Big Four\” giant holdings that currently comprise Berkshire’s biggest investments:
\n\tits insurance companies,
\tthe 5.55 percent stake it holds in Apple,
\trailroad operations, and
\tits energy operations, Berkshire Hathaway Energy.
\nNow, as regular readers might know, I tend to scour this letter each year when it comes out, looking at it as holistically as I can: examining critically what Buffett includes, what he doesn’t leaves out, and the little details he adds that makes it a bit more compelling than many corporate reports.
\nThis year, two things made me sit up a bit and take notice as I read the letter for the second or third time:
\n\tThe first is a passage that I’ll quote below, about the life and professional goals that Buffett says he encourages audiences of university students to pursue.
\tThe second is the long list of individual people Buffett mentions — some of them expected, but really two who stood out on my later readings.
\nLet’s cite the passage first. Buffett says that when he talks with university students, he advises them to try to seek employment in whatever field interests them most, but while working only with \”the kind of people they would select, if they had no need for money.\”
\nYes, he acknowledges, financial considerations can get in the way. But, who is now 91 years old (his longtime COO and partner, Charlie Munger is 98), says he’s learned that if you do eventually find that situation, then \”work\” no longer feels like work.
\nHe continues:
\nCharlie and I, ourselves, followed that liberating course after a few early stumbles. … [A]t Berkshire, we found what we love to do.
\nWith very few exceptions, we have now \”worked\” for many decades with people whom we like and trust. It’s a joy in life … In our home office, we employ decent and talented people – no jerks. Turnover averages, perhaps, one person per year.
\nDo you see what I’m getting at? Really, it’s those eight words: \”We employ decent and talented people – no jerks.\”
\nSo many business leaders talk the good game we’ve seen above. But, it’s hard sometimes to really, truly believe (and act on the belief) that \”our people are our biggest asset.\”
\nIt’s one thing to share platitudes; it’s another to have the courage to act from that belief when, say, your need for a specific skill-set bumps up against your \”no jerks\” policy.
\nHere’s the second small detail that stood out to me: the people Buffett takes the time to mention by name.
\nCertainly, some of these are to be expected. Munger is mentioned by name 15 times; Apple’s Tim Cook gets only one mention, but Buffett describes him as \”brilliant.\”
\nPlus, there are vignettes about Ajit Jain and Greg Abel, the top Berkshire executives who were mentioned for years as potential heirs to Buffett himself. Abel got the nod last year, so perhaps that’s why Buffett spends time on Jain first, offering afolksy recollection of what it was like to hire him:
\nWe first met on a Saturday morning, and I quickly asked Ajit what his insurance experience had been. He replied, \”None.\”
\nI said, \”Nobody’s perfect,\” and hired him. That was my lucky day: Ajit actually was as perfect a choice as could have been made. Better yet, he continues to be, 35 years later.
\nYet, two other names jump out. Buffett devotes nearly 1,000 words of this 4,500-word letter to the memory of Paul Andrews, who was the founder and CEO of Berkshire subsidiary TTI, and who died about a year ago at age 78.
\nI won’t reprint the entire story of Andrews’s company and how Berkshire came to acquire it, but the heading Buffett used at the top of the section makes the sentiment clear: \”A Wonderful Man and a Wonderful Business.\”
\nFinally, there’s one more person mentioned by name that I think drives home the point. It’s that when Buffett talks about another important acquisition, he makes a point of including this otherwise superfluous line:
\n\”Deb Bosanek, my assistant, scheduled our board’s opening dinner …\”
\nPeople who follow Buffett closely already know who Bosanek is. Still, it’s striking to me that Buffett is describing a meeting that took place 12 years ago, yet he goes into an aside about who made the travel and dinner arrangements, simply so that he can include his assistant’s name in the document.
\nAgain, if Buffett were not 91 years old and in an apparently reflective and advice-giving mood, I’m not sure I’d pick up on this. But he is, and it’s also not the only time Buffett has done this sort of thing.
\nIn my free ebook, Warren Buffett Predicts the Future, I include some other examples of people Buffett has singled out in the past. My favorite example is someone most people have never heard of: the man Buffet describes as his \”hero,\” Charles Feeney.
\nI hope we’ll have many more years of Buffett writing these letters and people like me reading and writing about them, but this one stands out for helping to peel away just a small bit of the skepticism that many of us feel when we hear a CEO say something like, \”Our people are our greatest asset.\”
\nIs it a cliche? Maybe not, if you really believe it. Or else, maybe it’s a cliche because it’s so true.
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In 8 short words, Warren Buffett has just revealed an important truth that most people never believe Read More »
