Russia-Ukraine the end of domination of the dollar? Don’t bet on this: Morning Brief
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Thursday, March 3, 2022
In anticipation of Godot’s dollar
Has the US dollar run out as a reserve currency?
This is one of several conclusions from the growing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The shock of heavy sanctions isolates Moscow and can still ricochet into the world economy in unexpected ways (not least because of inflation caused by soaring energy prices and fears about Russian supplies).
The debate over the morality (and feasibility) of blocking Russia has intensified another debate that has been brewing for years. Namely, can the greenback maintain its superiority over other currencies as a reserve instrument of choice?
Some believe the international community’s reaction to Moscow could ignite a fuse that is causing other countries to finally throw away the dollar forever – as Russia itself has done for years, as its aggressive behavior has pushed governments to push its finances. The proposal was reinforced on Wednesday by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who raised his eyebrows, saying there may be more than one reserve currency.
Speaking to Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway of Bloomberg News this week, investor Zoltan Pozar warned that the loss of access from Russia to its reserves has sent a message that institutions cannot rely on dollars if geopolitical problems arise, making the dollar more a little attractive as a safe haven.
And Dylan Grice, founder of Calderwood Capital, warned this week that the pressure on sanctions represents a “turning point in monetary history: the end of [dollar] hegemony accelerating towards a bipolar monetary order. “
With well over $ 600 billion, Russia has one of the world’s largest foreign exchange and gold reserves, but that money is now pretty useless in the face of harsh sanctions that limit the country’s institutions’ ability to transact.
The story continues
So is the death of the dollar really as inevitable as it seems? Not quite – and maybe not at all.
It is worth repeating that a number of global crises – and the United States’ own fiscal baggage – have not yet taken down the greenback. It was once thought that China, one of the largest holders of dollar-denominated assets, was ready to sell them after former President Donald Trump’s trade war with Beijing. This has never happened and there are several good reasons why.
“I’m not buying it,” said Mark Chandler of Bannockburn Global Forex when asked by the Morning Brief whether the Russia-Ukraine crisis would lead to a complete abandonment of the dollar.
This is “the same problem as always, there is no clear convincing alternative,” he said in an email.
“Moreover, the Europeans have sanctioned Russia’s central bank so that the alternative is not the euro,” he added.
Cryptocurrencies are currently considered the most viable (or at least the closest) alternative. In recent days, digital tokens have been in high demand despite a reluctance to take risks, leading to speculation that both Russians and Ukrainians are migrating to cryptocurrency given the restrictions imposed on them by sanctions.
However, in a research note Wednesday, Citigroup downplayed the impact of Russian flows, suggesting that the cryptocurrency offer was largely speculative. Bannockburn’s Chandler was also skeptical that the crypto could eventually displace the dollar, even in the near future.
“Crypto to replace the role of government securities behind the dollar? Nowhere near, “said the analyst. “Getting out of bonds means giving up yields, liquidity, transparency and security for what exactly?”
Given the unanimity of the international consensus against Russian President Vladimir Putin, it seems unlikely that any major economy will abandon a global financial system based on dollar dominance, at least for now.
“Putin has done what several American presidents have failed to do: revitalize NATO, increase Germany’s defense spending and get multinational companies around the world involved in sanctions,” Chandler said.
“Pax Americana seems to be stronger after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “Even Chinese banks continue to adhere to US sanctions, and there seems to be more space between Russia and China than before,” he added.
One of the options on the table is digital currency for central banking. The Fed’s initial moves toward creating the CBDC are unlikely to happen for some time. As early as January, Yahoo Finance’s Jennifer Schönberger said the Fed saw the CBDC as one way to help preserve the dollar’s traditional role as a preferred reserve currency instead of undermining it.
The Fed’s gradual move toward the digital dollar is partly why bitcoin investor Anthony Pompliano wrote last week that America “needs to start thinking about what to do in a world where much of the world doesn’t use the dollar as its reserve currency.”
Given the growing divergence between the United States, China and Russia, the latter two may decide that “the cost [of] the use of the world’s current reserve currency has become too high. They are unlikely to use rubles or yuan as a new reserve currency. “There is not enough global participation, along with a common challenge to convince the world that these new nation-states will not repeat the mistakes of past nation-states,” Pompliano wrote.
Assuming that bitcoin was the “next best option,” he listed several ways the United States could encourage its use, suggesting that monetary authorities could start adding it to their books like any other reserve asset, and ” to treat it as a traditional currency. “
Yes, the use and attractiveness of cryptocurrency is certainly growing. But the sector is not nearly stable or well-established enough to touch dollar-denominated bonds, which every central bank and institutional investor in the world still wants – even with all the US debt and deficit costs.
By Javier E. David, editor at Yahoo Finance. Follow him in @Teflongeek
What to watch today
Economics
7:30 a.m. ET: Job cuts in Challenger, on an annual basis, February (-76.0% in the previous month)
8:30 a.m. ET: Non-agricultural productivity, fourth quarter final (6.6% expected, 6.6% before)
8:30 a.m. ET: Unit labor costs, fourth quarter final (0.3% expected, 0.3% before)
8:30 a.m. ET: Initial unemployment applications, week ended February 26 (225,000 expected, 232,000 in previous week)
8:30 a.m. ET: Ongoing claims, week ended February 19 (1.4 million is expected, 1.476 million in the previous week)
9:45 AM ET: Markit US Services PMI, February final (expected 56.7, before 56.7)
9:45 AM ET: Markit US Composite PMI, February final (56 ago)
10:00 AM ET: ISM Services Index, February (expected 61.1, 59.9 in the previous month)
8:30 a.m. ET: Orders for durable goods, January final (1.6% ago)
8:30 a.m. ET: Orders for durable goods, except transport, January final (0.7% ago)
8:30 a.m. ET: Orders for capital goods without defense, except aircraft, January final (0.9% ago)
8:30 a.m. ET: Capital goods consignments without defense, except aircraft, January final (1.9%)
Profit
Preliminary market
6:00 AM ET: Large batches (BIG) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $ 1.89 per share on revenue of $ 1.73 billion
6:30 a.m. ET: Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) is expected to report adjusted earnings of C $ 2.04 per share on earnings of C $ 10.17 billion
6:45 AM ET: BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ) is expected to report adjusted earnings of 76 cents per share on revenue of $ 4.42 billion
7:00 AM ET: Best Buy (BBY) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $ 2.72 per share on revenue of $ 16.59 billion
8:00 AM ET: Kroger (KR) is expected to report adjusted earnings of 72 cents per share on revenue of $ 32.98 billion
Post-market
4:05 PM ET: Marvell Technology (COM)MRVL) is expected to report adjusted earnings of 48 cents per share on revenue of $ 1.32 billion
4:15 PM ET: Broadcom (COM)AVGO) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $ 8.13 per share on revenue of $ 7.61 billion
4:15 PM ET: Costco (COM)PRICE) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $ 2.58 per share on revenue of $ 51.47 billion
4:15 PM ET: gap (GPS) is expected to report adjusted losses of 14 cents per share on revenue of $ 4.49 billion
4:05 PM ET: Vision (VZIO) is expected to report adjusted losses of 18 cents per share on revenue of $ 691.46 million
After closing the market: sweet green (DV) is expected to report adjusted losses of 66 cents per share on revenue of $ 84.68 million
politics
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces second day questions from MPs. He will be before the Senate Banking Committee at 10:00 a.m. ET. On Wednesday, before a committee in the House of Representatives, he said the Fed would “proceed carefully” to raise interest rates amid the conflict in Ukraine.
in the White House, President Biden will hold a cabinet meeting at 14:00 ET.
Top news
European markets are rising as the London Stock Exchange blocks trading in Russian stocks [Yahoo Finance UK]
Oil reached a 10-year high and approached $ 120 a barrel [Yahoo Finance UK]
Britain excludes Russian companies from the insurance market [Yahoo Finance UK]
Russian companies are rushing to open accounts in Chinese banks as sanctions impose [Reuters]
Yahoo Finance Highlights
Why the stock market refuses to plunge into the Russia-Ukraine crisis
Airbnb CEO for the future in Russia: “Everything is on the table”
Why the conflict between Russia and Ukraine can turn crypto donations into a “game change”
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