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Capital Economics estimates that about half of Russia’s international reserves will be affected by sanctions – and much of the rest is in gold, which may not be so easily converted into money.

“This would be a logistical bankruptcy rather than a lack of defaults,” said Peter Bukvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group.

According to JPMorgan, Russia has more than $ 700 million in payments in March, mostly with a 30-day grace period.

Although Western sanctions against Russia do not restrict secondary trade in the country’s existing bonds, JPMorgan noted that there were problems with the settlement of some bonds, as Russia’s national settlement depositary blocked the accounts of a Belgian-based settlement provider, Euroclear.

Some believe the Kremlin could set the stage for deliberate failure to punish the United States and Europe for crushing their economies.

“Putin is 100% bankrupt,” hedge fund manager Kyle Bass said in a telephone interview with CNN on Wednesday. “The West is suffocating him. Why would he agree to pay interest to the West right now?

Capital Economics noted that the Russian authorities have already banned the transfer of coupon payments on government debt in local currency to foreigners, emphasizing the fact that the authorities “act with little attention to Russian assets owned by foreigners.”

“Russia can use default as revenge against Western sanctions to inflict losses on foreign creditors. It is no exaggeration to think that the Russian authorities may ban the repayment of foreign debt,” Capital Economics reported.

It is not clear how wide the impact of non-compliance would be today. The global financial crisis of 2008 and the beginning of the Covid pandemic in 2020 showed how interconnected the global economy and the financial system are.

“Our financial system and financial institutions have relatively little exposure to Russia,” Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, said during a hearing in the House of Representatives on Wednesday. “Even the biggest exhibitions that each of them has are not very big.”

Asked what a Russian default would mean for the global financial system, Bass said: “Nothing. It just means that people will lose some money.”

Bukvar said he was encouraged by the relatively low exposure of foreigners to Russian debt. However, he is not sure how this will develop, because it is so rare to see sanctions against a large central bank.

“We all fly blind,” said Bukvar.

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• Ford is divided into two automotive businesses: one for electric cars and one for internal combustion.
• The electric unit will be called Ford Model e, a name that the company banned Tesla from using years ago.
• Elon Musk wanted to call Tesla’s third mass-produced car, the Model 3, the Model E.

Ford announced a major restructuring on Wednesday, saying it would set up two automotive businesses: one focused on traditional internal combustion engines and another dedicated to the company’s thriving electric vehicle company.

The name Ford chose for the latter should ring the bell for Elon Musk.

The petrol division will be called Ford Blue, while its electric counterpart will be known as the Ford Model e, a name the Detroit-based automaker stopped using Tesla nearly a decade ago.

Following the launch of the Tesla Model S and Model X, Musk plans to name the company’s third major vehicle Model E. (It says “sex,” you know?)

“A friend asked me at a party, ‘How are you going to name the third-generation car?’ Well, we have S and X, so we can do E,” Musk told CNN Money in 2014. But Ford called Musk, threatening to sue if Tesla is pursuing the Model E brand, he told the publication.

Tesla and Ford signed a contract in 2010 that banned Tesla from using the Model E name, and the companies resolved the dispute by mutual agreement, a Ford spokesman told CNN Money.

– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 24, 2017

Ford has filed a lawsuit to prevent companies from using the Model E name, arguing that it sounds too similar to the Model T. Ford sells cars, including the Model A, B, C, F and K, but never the Model E. In 2000 Ford is suing a startup car leasing company called Model E.

Tesla, however, adheres to the allusive theme, instead coming up with the Model 3 sedan and later the Model Y SUV.

Ford says splitting into two separate units will help increase profits and streamline operations. The reorganization will allow Ford engineers, designers and other employees to focus on electric or gasoline efforts instead of splitting their time between the two, the company said. Ford said the new structure will help it double its profit margins by 2026, the same year it plans to produce more than 2 million electric cars.

Shares of Ford rose about 7% in the news on Wednesday morning.

A study shows that Rivian buyers are canceling their reservations at an alarming rate after a significant increase in the prices of the R1T electric pickup and R1S electric SUV.

As we announced yesterday, Rivian announced significant price increases in its range, leading to some configurations increasing by more than $ 12,000 and others by as much as $ 20,000 – these price increases also apply to people who have had reservations for years and they are not happy.

Forums and social media are full of Rivian reservation holders who say they cancel their orders because they either don’t want to pay the increase or because they feel cheated by the company.

However, it is difficult to understand how representative these comments are for the general base of reservation holders.

A poll in subreddit Rivian, one of the largest communities of Rivian fans, gives us a better idea of ​​the heart rate of reservation holders and shows a high cancellation rate:

Of the more than 3,000 respondents, the majority canceled their orders, with a significant proportion of reservation holders still undecided. Late last year, Rivian revealed that it had over 70,000 reservations for R1T and R1S.

Rivan blamed the rise in inflation and material costs, but many frustrated reservation holders said that if that were the case, the price increase would have been smaller and more gradual. Instead, many suspect that Rivian is having trouble increasing its gross margin as it increases production and passes costs on to its customers.

Here is our own survey for reservation holders in Rivian:

Taking Electrek

I am almost certain that I will cancel my reservation for four years. While I agree that this is a frustrating situation for reservation holders, this is probably the only way for Rivian to survive.

Even if most reservation holders cancel, Rivian will probably still have around 10,000 people willing to buy the early models with price increases, which should be enough to lead them to more production and more good costs. In turn, this should allow them to reach the cheaper versions of R1T and R1S in 2023-24, which will reach a wider customer base.

At this point, the company should be in a better situation, but in the meantime, they burned much of their fan base.

It is important to note that similar things happened when Tesla canceled the cheaper versions of the Model S in 2013, as they did the same with the Model 3.

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WASHINGTON (AP) – President Jerome Powell said Wednesday that he supports the traditional quarter-point increase in the Federal Reserve’s base short-term interest rate when the Fed meets later this month, instead of the larger increase some of his politicians have offered.

But Powell has opened the door for a bigger boost in the event that inflation, which has peaked in four decades, does not fall sharply this year, as the Fed expects.

“I’m willing to propose a four-point increase in interest rates to fight the acceleration of inflation that has gripped the economy in recent months,” Powell told the House Financial Services Financial Services Commission on the first of two days of half-yearly before Congress.

Most other Fed officials in recent weeks have backed such a modest rise, while several have said they support a half-point increase. or at least are open to such an increase. Higher Fed interest rates tend to lead to higher spending on consumer and business loans, including housing and car loans and credit cards.

“We expect inflation to peak and start declining this year,” Powell said. But he added: “As inflation rises … then we would be prepared to act more aggressively,” raising interest rates by more than a quarter of a point later this year.

The stock market rose in response to Powell’s support for the smaller increase. The S&P 500 jumped 1.7% in mid-day trading.

The chairman of the Fed warned that the economic consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting US and European sanctions are “very uncertain” and say it is “too early to say” how they could influence the Fed’s policy.

Prior to Russia’s invasion, the Fed plans to make a “series” of interest rate hikes this year, Powell said, potentially in each of the Fed’s remaining seven meetings. For now, the Fed will “continue carefully along the lines of this plan.”

Economists predict that the Fed will implement five to seven increases by a quarter. This month’s increase will be the first since 2018. And it will mark the beginning of a delicate challenge for the Fed: it wants to raise interest rates enough to cut inflation, which is now at its peak in four decades, but not so fast as to stifle growth and hiring. Powell argues that with a low unemployment rate of 4% and solid consumer spending, the economy can withstand moderately higher borrowing costs.

The Fed’s interest rate is now fixed close to zero, where it has been since the pandemic struck in March 2020, and the Fed has responded by cutting interest rates to help the economy.

Powell acknowledged that consumer price hikes have jumped far above the Fed’s 2% target – inflation reached 7.5% in January compared to a year earlier – and that higher prices lasted longer than expected. He also promised to use the Fed’s tools to bring inflation back to its target.

“We understand that high inflation imposes significant difficulties, especially on those who are least able to cover the higher costs of basic things such as food, housing and transport,” he said.

However, he added that the central bank expects inflation to fall gradually this year as tangled supply chains unravel and consumers withdraw some of the cost.

Most economists agree that inflation is likely to fall from its current level, but will remain high. Rising prices are spreading beyond the items damaged by the pandemic – cars, electronics, furniture and other household goods – into broader cost categories, especially rental costs..

Goldman Sachs has raised its inflation forecast and now predicts that prices, according to the Fed’s preferred measure, will still rise at a relatively high annual rate of 3.7% by the end of the year. That’s well above the Fed’s latest own forecast, released in December, at 2.7 percent. When the central bank’s politicians meet in two weeks, they will update this forecast.

Powell said the Fed would also begin to cut its huge $ 9 trillion balance, which more than doubled during the pandemic when the Fed bought trillions of dollars in bonds to try to keep long-term interest rates. He said central bank politicians were likely to agree on a plan on how to shrink their bonds when they meet in two weeks, but declined to say when the plan could be implemented. The shrinking balance of the Fed leads to a further increase in the cost of long-term loans.

In public statements, central bank officials discuss whether to raise interest rates by half a percentage point this month – an aggressive move – although most backed the traditional quarter-point increase. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine made an increase of half a point even less likely.

The invasion of Ukraine has raised oil prices by about 18% to about $ 110 a barrel, which will make gas more expensive. Some economists predict that average gas prices could soon reach $ 4 a gallon, compared to the national average of $ 3.66 on Wednesday.

More expensive energy will lead to even higher inflation than it would otherwise be in the coming months, which will strengthen the arguments for raising Fed interest rates. But more expensive gas also deprives consumers of money to spend on other things. This, in turn, is likely to hold back consumer spending and potentially weaken the economy, a scenario that would normally discourage the Fed from raising interest rates.

Apart from its effect on inflation, the war may have only a limited impact on the US economy, analysts say, as long as it does not escalate significantly. Only about 0.5% of US trade is with Russia.

Powell warned that the war could lead to a shortage of goods such as neon gas and palladium, which are used to make semiconductors. The lack of computer chips last year slowed down the production of cars and electronics and contributed to high inflation.

But the Fed chairman also suggested that the overall effect of the war on the US economy could be limited as long as the conflict does not escalate significantly.

“Our financial institutions and our economy do not have much interaction with the Russian economy,” he said. “And it’s getting smaller and smaller in recent years.”

Now Ukraine accepts Dogecoin donations, said Deputy Prime Minister Mikhail Fedorov.

“Now even the meme can support our army and save lives from Russian invaders,” Fedorov tweeted.

This is the latest move on cryptocurrencies on behalf of the Ukrainian government to raise funds amid the Russian invasion.

Crypto donations and Ukraine

Last week, the government’s official Twitter account was shared bitcoin and Ethereum addresses when it announcements Ukraine is now “accepting donations of cryptocurrency.” According to blockchain records, Ukraine has raised more than $ 20 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum combined so far.

The country also accepts Donations from Polkadot. The government tweeted the message just a day ago, saying “the people of Ukraine are grateful for the support and donations from the global crypto community as we defend our freedom.”

There was also an air release announcements for March 3, 2022 at 6 pm Kyiv time.

According to blockchain analysis firm Elliptic, the country has raised a total of more than $ 35 million in various cryptocurrencies.

https://decrypt.co/94217/ukraine-now-accepts-dogecoin-donationsrussian-invasion

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Self-described meme monkey Adam Aron throws a smelly, smoldering pile of feces at those people who say the streaming movement will put an end to the movie theater business.

“There are so many conventional wisdoms floating around that movie theaters can’t coexist and can’t thrive in a world of streaming. What a load like cow dung. Here, that cleans it up well. What a load of cow dung,” he said. the outspoken CEO of AMC to analysts during a conversation about profits on Tuesday night.

Aaron finally has better funding to support his three-month praise, as the relief of the COVID-19 pandemic brought people back to theaters.

AMC’s said fourth-quarter sales were the strongest on a quarterly basis for two full years. Total sales rose to $ 1.12 billion from $ 162.5 million caused by the pandemic a year ago.

Attendance levels reached 59.7 million compared to about 8 million a year earlier. The number of cinema-goers has improved dramatically both in the United States and abroad.

Improved attendance led to adjusted operating gains of $ 159.2 million, a significant improvement over the previous year’s loss of $ 327.5 million.

Shares of AMC fell 2% on Wednesday despite a stronger tone around business trends.

The company is so confident in its momentum that it is using dynamic pricing for Batman’s latest film, which debuts next weekend.

“Right now, our prices for Batman, which launches this week, are a little higher than the prices we charge for other movies that are playing in the same theaters at the same time,” Aaron said.

The CEO, using Twitter, had a few farewell thoughts about his brand’s haters, as usual.

Aaron said, “The problem with conventional wisdom is that conventional wisdom is so often just completely wrong. Remember the brokers who announced that AMC would file for bankruptcy in 2021. Well, remember that otherwise highly respected experts called for the price of AMC shares to fall to $ 2, $ 1 or even a penny by February or March 2022. Now for the whole world I’m listening to[‘m] does not make any prediction for the future. I look only retrospectively, but these experts greatly underestimated the AMC. With the full benefits of retrospective, we can now happily say, because now it is a simple fact. They were wrong, they were wrong, they were wrong. “

The story continues

Spoken as a true leader of the monkey memes.

Brian Sosie is the editor – in – chief and a leader in Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and so on LinkedIn.

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