Business News

The Federal Reserve will be “agile”, Powell says, but supports raising interest rates in March as Putin’s war fuels inflation

Business News / By

Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell signaled on Wednesday that the interest rate in March was “appropriate”, but stressed that the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine was incredible. Following the publication of Powell’s prepared testimony, stock market futures gave up some early gains.




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“The short-term consequences for the US economy of the invasion of Ukraine, the ongoing war, sanctions and the upcoming events remain very uncertain,” Powell told lawmakers at a hearing at 10 a.m. “We will have to be agile in responding to input and changing perspectives.”

With inflation already so hot and the Federal Reserve so behind the curve, Wall Street is concerned that politicians may have no choice but to not only continue to tighten rapidly, but also potentially increase the rate of interest rate hikes. It is unclear to what extent Powell’s prepared testimony will allay this concern, although he will set it out in more detail in a question and answer session.

The events so far, which have led to a jump in commodity prices and caused a correction in the stock market, have not changed Powell’s melody much. His testimony did not mention lower asset prices, but noted that “the labor market is extremely tight”.

“We are wary of the risk of potential further pressures on inflation expectations and inflation itself from a number of factors.”

Powell said he expects the Fed’s base rate hike to be appropriate at the March 15-16 meeting. “The reduction in our balance sheet will begin once the process of raising interest rates begins,” he added.

Federal Reserve reaction: Ukraine against Omicron

Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Russia is just the latest recent inflation curve for the Fed, following the delta and omicron variants. Still, the options were radically different. While tackling economic growth by slowing the recovery of the services sector, they also stimulated wage growth by shrinking the number of potential workers through early retirement, a series of absences and complications in raising children.

This latest crisis, from an economic point of view, is associated with rising prices, which will slow growth to some extent by reducing purchasing power and potentially undermining demand. In that sense, it’s more of a pure negative that the Fed can usually wait for. But if wage growth remains hot, Fed politicians may decide they don’t have the patience.

“The Fed tends to look beyond higher food and energy prices driven by geopolitical events, and we think it would be forced to rise more aggressively only if it sees signs of a spiral in wages and prices, which is not the case at the moment. “Solita Marcelli, America’s chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote on Monday.

Powell’s focus on tight labor markets could shape Wall Street’s response to Friday’s job report.

Economists expect Friday’s job report to show the addition of 390,000 jobs in February, as the unemployment rate fell back to 3.9% after rising to 4% in January.

However, there is one thing in the Jobs Report that may be really good news for the markets: increasing labor force participation with the withdrawal of the pandemic.

Stock market, action for the profitability of the treasury

The higher risk of disruption of supplies of key goods, following the escalation of sanctions against Russia over the weekend, caused a new decline in the stock market on Monday and Tuesday. Crude futures rose another 8 percent to $ 112 a barrel on Wednesday, but major stock indexes were poised to rebound earlier.

But the rebound lost momentum after Powell’s remarks were made. Dow Jones futures increased by 0.35%, S&P 500 futures by 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures by 0.2%.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed 9.5 percent of its record high on Tuesday. The S&P 500 is 10.2% below its record close, while the Nasdaq is down 15.7% from its peak.

After falling on Tuesday, government bond yields jumped on Wednesday. Following Powell’s testimony, 10-year bond yields rose 6 basis points to 1.77%, while 2-year yields rose 11 basis points to 1.42%.

FedWatch’s CME Group page currently shows a 90% chance of a quarter-point increase at this month’s Fed meeting and a 10% chance of a half-point increase.

There are currently five interest rate hikes on Wall Street in 2022, raising the Fed’s key interest rate to 1.25% -1.5%. On top of that, the Fed laid the groundwork for a partial reversal of its $ 4.5 trillion asset purchases from the Covid era.

Be sure to read the IBD Daily Big Picture column to get the latest on the main market trend and what it means for your business decisions.

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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine poses major economic risks

Futures are rising slightly, crude oil is rising; The head of the Fed Powell sees an increase in interest rates in March

The Federal Reserve will be “agile”, Powell says, but supports raising interest rates in March as Putin’s war fuels inflation Read More »

Salesforce, Ford, Nordstrom and others

Business News / By

Check out some of the biggest manufacturers in the pre-market:

Nordstrom – Retail shares rose 30.5% in pre-market trading after the company posted better-than-expected results for the fourth quarter. Nordstrom reported earnings of $ 1.23 per share, compared to Refinitiv’s expected consensus estimate of $ 1.02. Revenues also exceeded expectations. The retailer highlighted the improvements in its off-price business, Nordstrom Rack.

Salesforce – Shares of Salesforce rose 4% on the market after the software company’s report for the fourth quarter exceeded Wall Street expectations and issued optimistic guidelines. The company posted adjusted earnings of 84 cents per share on revenue of $ 7.33 billion. Analysts had expected earnings of 74 cents per share on revenue of $ 7.24 billion, according to Refinitiv.

Ford – Ford shares added 4% to pre-market trading after the carmaker announced it would split its electric vehicle business and legacy businesses into separate units. The company expects the move to streamline its growing electric vehicle business and maximize profits.

SoFi – Shares of the digital financial services company rose 15.5% in pre-marketing after the quarterly report of SoFi. SoFi reported a loss of 15 cents per share on revenue of $ 279.9 million compared to Refinitiv’s consensus estimate of a loss of 17 cents per share on revenue of $ 279.3 million.

Ross Stores – Ross Stores added 6.3% to pre-market trading after falling profits. The retailer reported fourth-quarter earnings of $ 1.04 per share on revenue of $ 5.02 billion. Analysts had expected earnings of 87 cents per share on revenue of $ 4.96 billion.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise – Hewlett Packard shares added 5.5% pre-marketing after the company reported a slight decline in earnings for the last quarter, but missed quarterly earnings. Earnings of 53 cents a share for the quarter exceeded analysts’ estimates by 7 cents. Revenue of $ 6.96 billion was below the consensus estimate of $ 7.03 billion.

Abercrombie & Fitch – Shares of Abercrombie & Fitch fell 8.1% before the market after the retailer missed the highest and final ratings. The company posted adjusted earnings of $ 1.14 per share on revenue of $ 1.16 billion. Analysts had expected earnings of $ 1.27 per share on earnings of $ 1.18 billion, according to StreetAccount.

First Solar – Shares of First Solar sank 12.4% after the company missed expectations for earnings for the fourth quarter. The manufacturer of solar panels also issued weak guidelines for the whole year.

Dollar Tree – Dollar Tree shares were 1% higher before the market after a better than expected report for the fourth quarter. The company reported earnings of $ 2.01 per share compared to StreetAccount’s consensus estimate of $ 1.78 per share. Revenues slightly missed analysts’ forecasts.

DraftKings – Shares of DraftKings rose 2.3 percent before the bell, after Morgan Stanley called sports betting stocks the best choice. “We expect the online sports betting / iGaming market in the United States to be very large, with several winning market shares, including DKNG,” said Morgan Stanley.

Salesforce, Ford, Nordstrom and others Read More »

ADP February 2022:

Business News / By

Inscriptions at the Job News USA Career Fair in Louisville, Kentucky, June 23, 2021.

Luke Charette Bloomberg | Getty Images

Private job creation rose faster than expected in February, according to a census released Wednesday by payroll firm ADP.

The companies added 475,000 positions for the month, better than the Dow Jones estimate of 400,000.

ADP also dramatically revised its January issue, from an initial loss of 301,000 to a profit of 509,000. This upward revision of 810,000 led to a closer alignment with the Ministry of Labor for the month’s profit of 467,000.

Wednesday’s report notes that ADP conducted annual audits of its February census to bring it into line with census data and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In other months, corrections have been observed over the past year, but none have been as large as in January 2022.

“Employment remains stable, but limited by reduced labor supply after the pandemic,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson. “Last month, large companies showed that they are well prepared to compete with higher wages and compensation proposals, and published the strongest record since the first days of the pandemic recovery.

Companies with 500 or more employees were responsible for almost all hires during the month, adding 552,000 positions. Companies with less than 50 employees reported a loss of 96,000, while medium-sized companies added only 18,000.

By sector, recreation and hospitality recorded the largest gains with an increase of 170,000. Trade, transport and utilities contributed 98,000, while professional and business services increased by 72,000.

On the goods side, production increased by 30,000 and construction added 26,000.

Although the two may differ significantly, the ADP number serves as a precursor to the more widely discussed BLS non-agricultural wage report coming out on Friday. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect the economy to create 440,000 jobs a month.

ADP February 2022: Read More »

OPEC + agrees to increase production despite rising oil prices

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Worker in an oil field developed by Almetyevneft, Tatneft’s Oil and Gas Production Board (NGDU).

Egor Aleev | TASS | Getty Images

An influential energy alliance, known as OPEC +, will meet on Wednesday to determine the next phase of production policy.

This comes as crude prices rise to multi-year highs due to fears of supply disruptions and Russia’s escalating war with Ukraine.

OPEC and non-OPEC partners are due to meet at 12:30 London time. Energy analysts generally expect the producer alliance to stick to its plan to increase its quota for crude oil production by 400,000 barrels per day in April.

Ahead of the meeting, the International Energy Agency said it would continue with a global release of 60 million barrels to compensate for energy market disruptions caused by international sanctions against Russia over its war with Ukraine. The United States has said 30 million of that amount will come from the US Strategic Oil Reserve.

The release of oil from the United States and other IEA members reflects the magnitude of expected disruptions in global energy markets.

Brent oil futures traded at $ 109.18 a barrel on Wednesday morning, up about 4%. Brent rose to $ 113.02 a barrel earlier in the session, its highest level since June 2014.

Meanwhile, US futures in West Texas amounted to $ 107.44 per barrel, approximately 3.8% higher. The oil contract jumped to $ 110.67 earlier, its highest level since August 2013.

John Kildaff, a partner at Again Capital, described Russia’s war with Ukraine as “a dramatic moment for the market and the world, and supplies.” As a result, he called on the de facto leader of OPEC, Saudi Arabia, to use his spare capacity to help the world market, stand up to his non-OPEC partner, Russia, and support Ukraine.

“It’s time for Saudi Arabia to step up and be a friend who always claims to be for the United States and, frankly, their other customer base, especially in Asia,” Kildaff told CNBC’s Closing Bell on Tuesday.

“The Saudis have the power to silence some of this call, which we see for sure. They could easily put another 1 million to 2 million barrels of oil a day on the market with almost a push of a switch,” he said.

“I think they need to talk about doing and acting and being more pro-Western and pro-Ukraine on this issue, not with their business partner from Russia.”

OPEC alone accounts for about 40% of world oil supplies.

Biden: Putin has no idea what’s coming

Sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine have so far been carefully designed to avoid a direct impact on the country’s exports, although there are signs that the measures inadvertently encourage banks and traders to avoid Russian crude oil.

Should Western leaders impose sanctions on Russia’s energy exports, a move the White House says is “certainly on the table”, it would have far-reaching consequences for the global economy.

Russia is one of the world’s largest oil producers and the world’s second-largest natural gas producer.

US President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladimir Putin in a speech on the state of the union on Tuesday that “there is no idea what lies ahead” shortly after a wave of Western oil companies announced plans to suspend Russian operations.

Oil pump jacks are depicted at the Kern River oil field in Bakersfield, California.

Jonathan Alcorn Reuters

Alex Booth, head of research at Kpler, said the problem for OPEC + is that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are currently the only ones with free capacity to increase production.

“The danger is that if it’s within OPEC +, they’re showing their hand that they can’t actually do it at all. If Saudi Arabia and the UAE are going alone, then they are really fighting against the rest of the organization and then against Russia as well. So they are in a very difficult situation in the group, “Booth told CNBC Street Signs Europe on Wednesday.

Of course, there will be a lot of pressure from outside, but I think their answer is “okay, US, nothing is stopping you from producing too, why don’t you talk about what you can do in the domestic market to increase oil supplies” what we do. “

Analysts at the political risk consulting firm Eurasia Group said there were two factors for the Gulf countries, most of which are part of the OPEC + alliance: oil and geopolitics.

“Saudi Arabia and the UAE are unlikely to pursue political positions on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which will eventually lead to a major rift in the oil market governance framework, which is key to long-term revenue stability,” they said. .

Doubts whether OPEC + can achieve

The Alliance of Producers is in the process of eliminating record supply cuts of approximately 10 million barrels per day. The historic downturn was introduced in April 2020 to help the energy market recover after the coronavirus pandemic reduced demand for crude oil.

Last month, OPEC + quickly decided to give the green light for the return of 400,000 barrels per day for March.

The group faces continued pressure from leading consumers such as the United States and India to pump more to lower prices and help economic recovery. However, the group opposed calls for a faster increase, despite rising oil prices.

Louise Dixon, a senior analyst at Rystad Energy’s oil market, said a significant SPR announcement from the United States and other importing countries on Tuesday was unlikely to affect OPEC +’s decision to increase its quota ceiling by 400,000 barrels a day in April.

However, the promise of OPEC + to increase supplies is currently a promise on paper, as our supply database shows that OPEC + members involved in the deal actually produce about 800,000 barrels per day below the stated target levels, which contributes for supply market shortages and further fueling the rising price environment, “Dixon said.

Stephen Branock, a senior analyst at London-based PVM Oil Associates, also said expectations were that OPEC + would likely “seal” an agreement to add another 400,000 barrels a day in April.

However, “doubts will be pervasive about whether he will be able to deliver on such a promise, given his recent experience in failing to meet its production targets,” he added.

OPEC + agrees to increase production despite rising oil prices Read More »

Weak demand for mortgages can get a big boost

Business News / By

The sign for the sale of real estate on the house shows an upcoming open house in Washington, DC.

Saul Loeb AFP | Getty Images

Demand for mortgages stopped last week as interest rates peaked for many years, but that is likely to change quickly. Tariffs are now falling rapidly due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

According to the seasonally adjusted index of the Association of Mortgage Bankers, the volume of mortgage applications was almost equal compared to the previous week. Borrowers had no incentive to refinance, and home buyers continue to face high prices and a severe lack of ads.

The average agreed interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with corresponding loan balances ($ 647,200 or less) increased to 4.15% from 4.06%, decreasing to 0.44 from 0.48 (including the grant fee) for loans with a 20% reduction payment.

Home loan refinancing applications increased by 1% for the week, but were still 56% lower than the same week a year ago. Interest rates were 92 basis points lower a year ago, so there were far fewer borrowers who could benefit from refinancing. The share of refinancing of the mortgage activity decreased to 49.9% of the total applications from 50.1% in the previous week.

Applications for mortgages to buy a home fell 2% for the week and were 9% lower during the year. Buyers are now seeing prices rise at the fastest pace in more than 45 years, up just over 19 percent from a year ago in January, according to a new report Tuesday by CoreLogic. As a result, the average loan amount increased to another record high of $ 454,400.

This trend is likely to change now due to a sharp drop in mortgage rates this week. The war in Ukraine has forced investors to rush into the bond market, leading to lower yields. Mortgage rates are weakly following the yield on the 10-year US Treasury. The average interest rate on the 30-year fixed has fallen by 28 basis points in the last two days alone, according to Mortgage News Daily.

Expectations this year were that interest rates would move steadily as the Federal Reserve eased purchases and holdings of mortgage bonds. The Fed has not made any changes to its plan so far, so it is possible that the decline in mortgage rates will be short. Lower mortgage rates will continue to push up house prices, especially given the drastic imbalance between record low supply and strong demand.

Weak demand for mortgages can get a big boost Read More »

Russia says the economy is suffering “serious blows” with increasing isolation

Business News / By

“Russia’s economy is being hit hard,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told foreign journalists. “But there is a certain safety margin, there is potential, there are some plans, the work is underway.”

Peskov was answering a question about US President Joe Biden’s remark in his speech on the state of the union that the Russian economy has been left to “shake” by sanctions.
Sberbank (SBRCY), Russia’s largest creditor, said on Wednesday it was leaving Europe, with the exception of Switzerland, after Austrian banking regulators forced it to close its Vienna-based EU subsidiary. The European Central Bank warned earlier this week that Sberbank Europe was likely to fail after depositors rushed to withdraw their money following Western sanctions on much of Russia’s financial system.

Sberbank said its subsidiaries had faced “extreme leakage and a number of security concerns for its employees and offices”, the group said in a statement, adding that it had been prevented from rescuing them by order of Russia’s central bank. .

Another push from Russia: Three shipping companies will not sail there

Banking sanctions are part of a broader package of measures taken by the West, unprecedented in scale against Russia’s economy, to cut off funding for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military efforts. France estimates that $ 1 trillion in Russian assets have been frozen, including about half of the Russian government’s military reserves.

Moscow has responded with a series of emergency measures aimed at preventing a financial meltdown, halting the country’s cash flow and maintaining foreign exchange reserves. The central bank has more than doubled interest rates to 20% and banned Russian brokers from selling securities held by foreigners.

More capital control

Russia’s stock market closed on Monday and has not reopened since. The central bank said it would remain closed on Wednesday. The government has ordered exporters to exchange 80% of their foreign currency earnings for rubles and banned Russian citizens from making bank transfers outside the country.

On Tuesday, the government said Putin was working on a decree that would prevent foreign companies from leaving their Russian assets – an attempt to prevent an eviction that picked up speed this week. Putin also signed a decree banning people from taking more than $ 10,000 or the country’s foreign currency equivalent, state news agencies TASS and RIA reported.

The central bank went further on Wednesday in an attempt to stem the flow of money from the country. He stopped transfers abroad from accounts held by non-resident legal entities and individuals from a number of countries. The restriction does not apply to Russian citizens.

“Conditions in the Russian financial system and the wider economy are likely to worsen in the coming days and weeks, as sanctions already announced take their toll and future sanctions add to the continuing negative shock,” wrote Behrenberg senior economist Kalum Pickering. research note. Wednesday.

“In the foreseeable future, Russia will remain isolated from the Western world and major global markets.

Oil companies are leading corporate evictions

Russia’s energy resources have not been directly targeted by Western sanctions, but many of the world’s largest oil companies are leaving the country or halting new investments in exploration and development projects.

Moscow is also struggling to sell supplies of Russian crude oil to traders and refineries worried they will be caught in a network of financial sanctions. Tanker operators are also wary of the risk to ships in the Black Sea.

ExxonMobil said on Tuesday that it was abandoning its latest project in the country, Sakhalin-1, which has been declared “one of the largest single international direct investments in Russia”. A subsidiary of Exxon was the operator of the project and the company’s decision to withdraw will end its presence in Russia for more than 25 years.

BP (BP), Shell (RDSA) and Norwegian Equinor all said this week that they intend to leave their Russian business in the event of a billion-dollar blow to their balance sheets. of France TotalEnergies (TOT) stopped new investments.

Apple, the world’s most valuable company, announced on Tuesday that it had stopped selling all its products in Russia due to the invasion of Ukraine. Apple also said it has restricted access to digital services, such as Apple Pay, in Russia and has restricted access to Russian state-owned media applications outside the country.

Ford said on Tuesday it was suspending operations in Russia, which takes effect immediately. IN the carmaker has a 50% stake in Ford Sollers, a joint venture with Russia’s Sollers.

Boeing suspends support for Russian airlines. A company spokesman said on Tuesday that Boeing was suspending “parts, maintenance and technical support services for Russian airlines” and had also “suspended major operations in Moscow and temporarily closed our Kyiv office”.

Airbus also said it was suspending maintenance and spare parts services for Russian airlines.

– Charles Riley, Nathan Hodge, Chris Liakos, Vanessa Yurkevich, Matt Egan and Angus Watson contributed to this report.

Russia says the economy is suffering “serious blows” with increasing isolation Read More »

CRM stocks are rising as profits, highest revenue estimates

Business News / By

Shares of Salesforce rose on Wednesday, after gains for the quarter for January fell from a year earlier, but exceeded views, while earnings exceeded analysts’ estimates. The earnings guidelines for the CRM stock software maker were above expectations, while earnings forecasts were missed.




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Salesforce (CRM) reported a profit for the fourth quarter after the market closed on Tuesday. Shares of CRM rose 3.7% to 216.73 in trading before the market opened on the stock market today.

Including the recently acquired Slack Technologies, Salesforce’s revenue fell 19% to 84 cents on an adjusted basis. The deal with Slack ended in July.

San Francisco-based Salesforce said revenue rose 26 percent to $ 7.33 billion, including $ 312 million from Slack. A year earlier, Salesforce’s earnings were $ 1.04 per share, including investment gains, with sales of $ 5.82 billion.

In addition, CRM stock analysts expected Salesforce to report earnings of 75 cents per share on sales of $ 7.24 billion.

CRM Availability: Mixed Guidelines for the April Quarter

The enterprise software maker said CRPO’s current outstanding commitments or provisions have risen 22 percent to $ 22 billion. This exceeded analysts’ estimates of $ 21.42 billion.

CRPO’s reservations, meanwhile, are a combination of deferred revenue and lagging orders.

“CRM shares continue to benefit from the digital transformation, as seven-figure deals rose 34 percent from a year earlier and eight-digit deals (more than twice),” Cowen analyst Derrick Wood said in a report.

For the current quarter, ending in April, Salesforce’s revenue forecasts exceeded expectations. The software maker expects revenue in the range of $ 7.37 billion to $ 7.38 billion compared to forecasts of $ 7.27 billion.

In addition, the company forecasts earnings in the range of 93 to 94 cents per share compared to forecasts of $ 1 per share for CRM.

Salesforce sells subscription software. Its software helps companies organize and manage sales operations and customer relationships. The company expanded into marketing, customer service and e-commerce.

If you are new to IBD, consider looking at its stock trading system and the basics of CAN SLIM. Recognizing chart patterns in problems such as CRM stocks is one of the keys to investment guidance.

Follow Reinhard Krause on Twitter @reinhardtk_tech for 5G wireless updates, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and cloud computing.

How to use the 10-week moving average for buying and selling

CRM stocks are rising as profits, highest revenue estimates Read More »

Tesla’s Elon Musk releases new line after Joe Biden praises Ford and GM’s work on electric cars

Business News / By

Tesla CEO Elon Musk shared a new remark to Joe Biden on Tuesday after the US president’s speech on the state of the Union. Both in his speech and later on Twitter, Biden praised Ford and GM’s investments in electric vehicles and the jobs they will create.

“Something is happening in America. Just look around and you will see an amazing story. The resurgence of pride that comes from the printing of “Made in America” ​​products. The revival of American production. Companies are choosing to build new factories here when they would have gone abroad just a few years ago.

“It simply came to our notice then. Ford is investing $ 11 billion in electric vehicles, creating 11,000 jobs nationwide. “GM is making the biggest investment in its history: $ 7 billion to build electric vehicles, creating 4,000 jobs in Michigan,” Biden said.

While investing $ 18 billion in electric vehicle programs and 14,000 jobs is no joke, Tesla CEO Elon Musk was quick to point out that Tesla has created more than 50,000 jobs in the United States. The young automaker, which is still increasing its presence in the United States with the upcoming launch of Gigafactory Texas, has also invested more than twice GM and Ford combined.

“Tesla has created more than 50,000 jobs in the United States in the electric vehicle industry and has invested more than twice GM + Ford combined,” Musk said. answers.

In an email to CNBCMusk also joked that “No one is watching the state of the Union.” Earlier, the chief executive also told the news agency that the US president “apparently ignored Tesla at every turn and falsely told the public that GM was leading the electric car industry, when in fact Tesla had produced more than 300,000 electric vehicles in the last quarter. and GM produced 26 ”. Musk’s statement is correct, as GM sold only 25 Chevy Bolts and one GMC Hummer EV in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Recent reports have hinted at the apparent reluctance of the US president to give much credit to Musk and Tesla for their work in the electric vehicle sector. Sources familiar with the Biden administration’s position reportedly said that Biden’s advisers opposed the idea of ​​inviting Musk to future events in the industry because he could say or do something to embarrass the US president.

Musk responded to these concerns by promising that “there is nothing to worry about.” I would do the right thing. “

Do not hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to [email protected] to warn us.

Tesla’s Elon Musk releases new line after Joe Biden praises Ford and GM’s work on electric cars






Tesla’s Elon Musk releases new line after Joe Biden praises Ford and GM’s work on electric cars Read More »