An employee carries an order for a customer at the Domino’s Pizza restaurant in Detroit.
Sean Procter Bloomberg | Getty Images
Domino’s Pizza on Tuesday reported quarterly profits and revenues that did not meet analysts’ expectations.
The pizzeria chain has also announced that CEO Rich Alison plans to retire. Domino’s chief operating officer and US President Russell Weiner will succeed him as head of the company from May 1.
The company’s shares fell by about 8% in pre-market trading.
Here’s what the company says compared to what Wall Street expected, based on a survey by analysts at Refinitiv:
Earnings per share: $ 4.25 versus $ 4.28 expected
Revenue: $ 1.34 billion versus the expected $ 1.38 billion
The pizzeria chain reported net profit for the fourth quarter of $ 155.7 million, or $ 4.25 per share, compared to $ 151.9 million, or $ 3.85 per share, a year earlier. Analysts polled by Refinitiv expected earnings per share of $ 4.28.
Net salesfell 1% to $ 1.34 billion, missing expectations of $ 1.38 billion.
Sales at the same store in the United States rose just 1 percent in the quarter, driven by poor performance at Domino-owned restaurants. Analysts expected sales growth in the same store in the US of 2.9%, according to StreetAccount estimates.
Outside the United States, the chain’s performance has also been disappointing. International sales in the same store grew 1.8% in the quarter, down from StreetAccount’s estimates of 6.6%.
After stepping down as CEO, Alison will continue to serve as an advisor until July 15, when he officially retires.
The company also announced that it has selected Sandip Reddy as its next chief financial officer as of April 1st. Reddy is currently CFO of Six Flags, although he announced on Monday that he would resign on March 27. Prior to Six Flags, he served in the same role for Guess.
Adjustment: Domino’s net sales fell 1% in the fourth quarter of 2021. A previous version incorrectly accounted for the change from year to year.
Lucid Motors (LCID) significantly missed earnings forecasts for the fourth fiscal quarter late Monday and cut production forecasts for 2022. Lucid shares sold out early Tuesday.
On Monday, Lordstown Motors (RIDE) has joined Nicholas (NKLA) in reporting losses less than concerns. But Lordstown was also disappointed with its production prospects.
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Saudi-backed Lucid also announced a plant in Saudi Arabia in a separate issue late Monday. Among US electric car startups, Lucid is generally seen as having more reliable potential Tesla (TSLA) contender because it actually delivers vehicles. Its luxury, highly efficient Lucid Air sets it apart from most other electric cars.
Clear profits
Estimates: Analysts expected Lucid to lose 35 cents a share on revenue of $ 36.7 million. In the third quarter, Lucid reported a loss of 43 cents per share, worse than expected.
Results: Lucid lost 64 cents a share on revenue of $ 26.392 billion.
Outlook: Lucid updated production guide for 2022. Now forecasts 12,000-14,000 vehicles, up from 20,000 earlier.
“This reflects the exceptional supply chain and logistics challenges we have faced,” CEO Peter Rawlinson said in a statement.
As of February 28, Lucid had reservations for more than 25,000 Lucid Air electric vehicles. That’s up 13,000 at the end of the third quarter of 2021. It produced 400 EVs and delivered 300 EVs after it began shipping in Q4 2021.
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Lucid Stock
Shares of Lucid fell 12% during pre-market trading. Shares jumped nearly 10% to 28.98 on Monday. Shares of Lucid met with strong resistance on their 200-day / 40-week moving average from the end of January. Shares were about 6% below that line on Monday and fell about 25% since the beginning of the year.
The relative strength of LCID shares is lagging behind, according to MarketSmith charts.
In a February 18 note, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas warned of “high levels of volatility around stock prices” ahead of Lucid’s gains. Among other things, he cites Lucid’s shares as “unusually low free (and) high short interest rates”.
On February 22, the California-based company announced the withdrawal of more than 200 of its premium electric sedans due to a possible safety issue. Shares fell nearly 5% that day.
Among the U.S. car starters, Lucid may be Tesla’s closest rival, along with Rivian (RIVN). In the last quarter, Lucid began initial deliveries of the $ 169,000 Air Dream EV, which topped the longest-running S model with more than 500 miles of driving range. Lucid Air has won awards, including the 2022 MotorTrend Car of the Year Award.
Lucid Air is the only EV from a startup that is “in the same league as Tesla’s product in terms of range, horsepower and other benefits,” CFRA analyst Gareth Nelson said in November. Rivian also began initial deliveries in the fourth quarter of last year.
As of November, Lucid had 17,000 airtime reservations. He also has a $ 4.8 billion military package in cash, thanks to his February 2021 deal to go public through a special purpose vehicle acquisition (SPAC) deal with Churchill Capital Corp IV.
Beyond Lucid Stock: Lordstown, Nicholas
Early Monday, Lordstown Motors revealed an expanded loss of $ 81.2 million, or 42 cents a share, for the fourth quarter. Analysts forecast a loss of 77 cents, according to FactSet.
The startup expects to make and sell its first 500 Endurance electric pickups in the third quarter of this year, a fivefold increase in 2023 despite the challenges of parts and the supply chain. China’s Foxconn will build the $ 55,000 Endurance electric truck in Ohio.
Shares of Lordstown fell nearly 20% to 2.57, even as other electric carmakers rose on Monday. Lordstown Motors shares have never recovered from the March 2021 allegations of fraudulent orders from Hindenburg Research short sellers.
On Monday, Lordstown management warned of obstacles in the production deal with Foxconn. The production target for the end of 2023 may also have scared investors.
Last week, Nicholas also reported better than fears losses for the fourth quarter. It also expects to start generating sales revenue from its Tre electric semi-platforms this year. The electric car startup Nikola also did not recover after being targeted by Hindenburg Research in September 2020.
Shares of Nikola fell early on Tuesday after closing at 7.90 on Monday.
Blink’s earnings have been rescheduled
Charging with flashing (BLNK) rescheduled its fourth-quarter earnings announcement for March 10. The EV charging start is likely to lose 39 cents a share due to low revenue. Shares of Blink rose 3% to 24.58 on Monday. BLNK lost a little early on Tuesday.
Recent and forthcoming reports on new EV stocks give investors a broad view of the picture of start-up electric cars, as established carmakers increase electric vehicles amid a continuing shortage of car chips.
Lucid and his colleagues are among the new names pursuing the dominant brand of electric vehicles, Tesla (TSLA). But investors are wary of the huge fires over new EV stocks. Tesla CEO Elon Musk warned that “prototypes are easy and production is difficult.”
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Target (TGT) – Shares of the big retailer rose 11% in pre-market trade after Target said it expects growth to continue even after the gains of the pandemic era. Target posted adjusted fourth-quarter earnings of $ 3.19 per share on revenue of $ 31 billion. Analysts polled by Refinitiv expected earnings of $ 2.86 per share on revenue of $ 31.39 billion.
Kohl’s (KSS) – Kohl’s shares rose more than 5% on the market after the company gave optimistic guidance for the financial year 2022. The retailer exceeded expectations for profits in the fourth quarter, but missed the consensus assessment of Refinitiv’s sales.
AutoZone (AZO) – AutoZone shares gained 3.6% early in the morning after a better-than-expected earnings report. The company reported second-quarter earnings of $ 22.30 per share on revenue of $ 3.37 billion. Analysts polled by Refinitiv expected earnings of $ 17.79 per share on revenue of $ 3.17 billion.
Kroger (KR) – Kroger shares rose more than 2% in the pre-market after Telsey renewed its grocery chain before its earnings report. “We believe we have greater visibility and confidence in Kroger’s multi-channel multi-channel growth track,” said Joseph Feldman of Telsey.
Foot Locker (Florida) – Foot Locker shares fell 3% in pre-market trading after Goldman Sachs became the newest Wall Street company to downgrade the retailer after a disappointing update on Friday. Barclays and B. Riley also downgraded Foot Locker on Tuesday.
Workday (WDAY) – Workday shares rose more than 7% in pre-market trading after the software company exceeded expectations for its quarterly results. The company reported earnings of 78 cents per share, exceeding Refinitiv’s estimate of 71 cents per share. Revenues also exceeded forecasts.
HP Inc. (HPQ) – HP shares fell 2% in pre-market trading even after falling profits. The company posted an adjusted earnings of $ 1.10 per share compared to Refinitiv’s estimate of $ 1.02 per share. Sales also exceeded expectations.
Lucid Group (LCID) – Shares of Lucid Group fell more than 12% in pre-marketing after a disappointing quarterly report. The electric vehicle manufacturer reported a larger-than-expected loss of 64 cents per share compared to Refinitiv’s consensus estimate of a loss of 25 cents per share. Revenues also exceeded expectations.
Zoom Video (ZM) – Zoom shares lost 2.5% in pre-market trading after the video conferencing platform issued year-round guidelines below analysts’ forecasts. The company exceeded expectations for profits and revenues.
Novavax (NVAX) – Novavax shares fell 6.6% before the market after the company missed the top and bottom of its quarterly report. Novavax reported a loss of $ 11.18 per share on revenue of $ 222.2 million.
A Russian ruble banknote can be seen in front of the downward stock chart of this illustration, made on March 1, 2022. REUTERS / Dado Ruvic / Illustration
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Traders remain fully focused on the crisis in Ukraine
The ruble has stabilized, but the foreign exchange market is now split in two
European stocks are falling as sentiment remains bad
Oil jumps back over $ 100 a barrel
Bond markets are lowering expectations of rising interest rates
LONDON, March 1 – European stocks fell and oil jumped over $ 100 a barrel on Tuesday as markets battled huge uncertainty caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, although the ruble has stabilized as Moscow fights for support for its besieged markets.
Russia’s stock markets remained stalled and some bond trading platforms no longer showed prices, but trading in major financial centers in both Europe and Asia was tidy overnight, albeit nervous.
Losses for the pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) began to rise again, with the index falling nearly 2% by mid-session, and Wall Street was expected to open about 1% lower in New York later.
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There were initially gains on equity (.SXPP) and oil and gas (.SXEP), but even that has worsened and there has been a sharp 4% drop in bank stocks, with investors now feeling that rising interest rates could entertain.
Paul Jackson, global head of asset allocation research, told Invesco: “If we do not accept a quick solution to this conflict, we fear that global GDP could be reduced by 0.5% -1.0%.”
“This is enough to worsen the ongoing slowdown, but it is not enough to cause a recession,” although he warned that some parts of Europe could experience a recession and that inflation is likely to remain higher for longer.
High-level talks between Kyiv and Moscow ended on Monday without an agreement, except to continue talks, and nerves were sharp when a huge Russian armored column descended on Kyiv on Tuesday after deadly shelling of civilian areas in Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv. Read more
As Russia is one of the world’s largest oil and oil producers, Brent oil futures rose $ 4.51, or 4.6%, to $ 102.75 a barrel. That was just below the seven-year high of $ 105.79 after Moscow launched its attack on Ukraine last week.
Natural gas prices in Europe also jumped by nearly 15%. Oil and gas prices have now risen by nearly 60 percent after fears of an invasion of Ukraine began to escalate in November.
“Ukraine’s fragile situation and financial and energy sanctions against Russia will keep the energy crisis and oil well above $ 100 a barrel in the short term and even higher if the conflict escalates further,” said Louise Dixon, senior analyst at Rystad Energy. , writes in a note.
RUBLES
The sense that war and higher energy prices could slow the global economy meant that eurozone bond yields continued to fall in bond markets as traders further cut their interest rates on the European Central Bank’s interest rates this year. .
The reference 10-year yield on US government bonds remained at 1.80% in European trade, more than 2% lower than two weeks ago as the euro resumed its decline in the foreign exchange market.
The boost to eurozone output growth slowed slightly last month, revised PMI data showed on Tuesday, although it is still strong, and companies said supply chain constraints have eased.
“Don’t let the fall in the PMI headline divert attention from what should be seen as a largely positive month for the eurozone manufacturing sector in February,” said Joe Hayes, senior economist at the IHS Markit data compiler.
The Russian ruble seems to have stabilized after falling 30 percent to a record $ 120 after Western countries hit Russia with the largest sanctions ever imposed on such an interconnected global economy.
These measures include excluding leading Russian banks from the international financial network SWIFT and sanctioning its central bank in an attempt to limit Moscow’s ability to allocate its $ 630 billion in foreign reserves.
Russia responded on Tuesday by temporarily preventing foreign investors from selling Russian assets to ensure they make a “considered decision”, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said. The huge Russian sovereign wealth fund will also be forced to act by spending up to 1 trillion rubles ($ 10.3 billion) to buy shares in Russian companies, a source close to the government told Reuters.
However, the sanctions mean that the big global banks are now reluctant to trade with Russian banks and vice versa, which means that there are already two different currency markets for the ruble – one in Russia and one internationally.
Traders in London quoted the ruble between 101 and 105 per dollar, although according to some local market prices it was around 94 per dollar.
More generally, the volatility of the foreign exchange market is the highest since the end of 2020, as measured by the Deutsche Bank Index (.DBCVIX), and the ruble is down by almost 30% from its best levels this year.
“Today the focus will be on whether sanctions / revenge will start to affect Russia’s trade flows and whether (the Russian central bank) will intervene with more measures to support the ruble,” ING FX analysts wrote in a note to customers.
Meanwhile, trading in Russian stocks remains suspended on the Moscow Stock Exchange, and the prices of Russian government and corporate bonds are not shown on some trading platforms. JPMorgan’s widely tracked GBI-EM Global Diversified Index still included ruble-denominated Russian bonds, although Monday’s market crash reduced their so-called index weight.
Foreign investors held $ 20 billion in Russian government debt denominated in dollars and rubles late last year, according to the Russian central bank, while holding shares worth just over $ 85 billion, according to the Moscow Stock Exchange.
“Much of (global) price action is a function of uncertainty.” said Madison Faller of JPmorgan Private Bank.
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Additional reports from Suja Rao in London; Edited by Chizu Nomiyama
(Bloomberg) – The invasion of Ukraine has caused a mass exodus of companies from Russia, attracting three decades of investment from Western and other foreign companies there since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
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The list of those who cut ties or reconsider their operations is growing by the hour as foreign governments tighten sanctions against Russia, close airspace to its planes and block some banks from SWIFT’s messaging system. With the fall of the ruble and the US ban on transactions with the Russian central bank, operating in Russia has become deeply problematic. Some companies have concluded that the risks, both reputational and financial, are too great to continue.
For some companies, the decision to leave Russia is the result of decades of lucrative, albeit sometimes heavy, investment. Foreign energy companies have been pouring money since the 1990s. Russia’s largest foreign investor, BP Plc, said in a surprise announcement Sunday that it would abandon its 20 percent stake in the state-controlled Rosneft move, which could lead to a write-off of $ 25 billion and a reduction in global oil and gas production. by one third.
The pledge is the product of a protracted battle in 2012 to control TNK-BP, a joint venture between the oil giant and a group of billionaires. It is now being considered whether to sell its stake back to Rosneft, according to people familiar with the matter.
Read more: Big oil goes to Russia decades later
Shell Plc followed on Monday. Citing Russia’s “senseless act of military aggression,” she said she was ending partnerships with state-controlled Gazprom, including the Sakhalin II liquefied natural gas facility and his involvement in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, which Germany is blocking. last week. Both projects are worth about $ 3 billion. Kwasi Kwarteng, the UK’s business secretary, met with Shell CEO Ben van Beurden on Monday to discuss the company’s involvement and welcomed the move.
“Shell made the right call,” he tweeted. “British companies now have a strong moral imperative to isolate Russia. This invasion must be a strategic failure for Putin.
Equinor ASA, Norway’s largest energy company and majority state-owned, has also announced it will begin withdrawing from its $ 1.2 billion joint venture in Russia. “In the current situation, we consider our position untenable,” said CEO Anders Opedahl.
France’s TotalEnergies SE, which is involved in major liquefied natural gas projects in Russia, has said it will no longer provide capital for new developments in the country, a modest concession to growing political pressure. Among other major energy companies, Exxon Mobil Corp. oversees the Sakhalin-1 project with Rosneft and companies from Japan and India.
“I wouldn’t be surprised to see more reports of outings,” said Alan Good, a sector strategist at Morningstar.
When the Soviet Union collapsed, foreign companies saw huge opportunities – a huge new market of millions of consumers, as well as minerals and oil – and poured in to buy, sell and partner with Russian companies.
With Russia’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine, this trend has stopped. The Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund, the world’s largest, has said it is freezing about $ 2.8 billion in Russian assets and will come up with a plan by March 15.
Large law and accounting firms are also taking stock and facing potentially huge consequences. Baker McKenzie has said he will sever ties with several Russian clients to enforce sanctions. Clients of the Chicago-based firm include Russia’s finance ministry and VTB, Russia’s second-largest bank, which has been affected by asset freezes and sanctions from the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union. The law firm said Monday it was reviewing its operations in Russia.
“We do not comment on the details of specific customer relationships, but in some cases this will mean a complete exit from the relationship,” said Baker spokesman McKenzie.
The London-based Linklaters said in a statement that it was “reviewing the entire work of the company related to Russia”. KPMG LLP has said it will sever ties with some clients subject to the recent wave of sanctions against Russia, according to a LinkedIn publication by its UK chief Jonathan Holt.
London companies
Some of London’s largest law firms – including Allen & Overy and Clifford Chance – either did not respond to inquiries about working with their Russian clients or declined to comment. The courts in London have long been a battleground for wealthy Russians seeking to resolve disputes over failed business deals and failed marriages. British judges promise a justice system that allows even suspicious money, a fair hearing in case of disputes.
Other companies have been criticized for not getting out completely. McKinsey & Co.’s global managing partner. Bob Sternfels turned to LinkedIn on Sunday to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and said the company would no longer do business with any government entity in Russia. But he did not withdraw. For some inside and outside the company, his move was insufficient.
The top executive of the consulting company in Ukraine called on companies to go further and start, where possible, to close “offices and retail outlets” in Russia, where McKinsey has been operating for nearly 30 years.
Pressure on others through sales and joint ventures in Russia is growing. Daimler Truck Holding AG, one of the world’s largest manufacturers of commercial vehicles, has said it will suspend operations in Russia until further notice and may reconsider ties with a local partner in the Kamaz PJSC joint venture. Labor officials said they “considered it appropriate” for the world’s largest truck manufacturer to also unload its shares in Kamaz, according to an email from the company’s works council.
Volvo Car AB and Volvo AB, a truck manufacturer, have also announced they are suspending sales and production in Russia. Harley-Davidson Inc. said it had shut down its business in Russia, which, along with the rest of Europe and the Middle East, accounted for 31% of motorcycle sales last year.
General Motors Co. said it was suspending supplies to Russia, citing “a number of external factors, including supply chain problems and other issues beyond the company’s control”. GM exports about 3,000 cars a year to Russia from the United States. In Japan, most major carmakers have said business with Russia will remain as it is, although Mitsubishi Motors Corp. said he would meet to assess the risk of his activities there.
Others see their share prices falling. French carmaker Renault SA fell 12 percent on Monday; Russia is the second largest market and its subsidiary AvtoVAZ, where Renault has a 68% stake, produces Lada cars, which own about a fifth of the Russian market. Renault also manufactures Kaptur, Duster and other vehicles at its own plant in Moscow.
Ford Motor Co. said it did not plan to withdraw from its joint venture in Russia with Sollers for the production of commercial vans, at least for now. “Our current interest is entirely in the safety and well-being of the people of Ukraine and the surrounding region,” Ford said in a statement. “We will not speculate on the consequences for business.”
Mastercard Inc. and Visa Inc. said they had blocked certain Russian activity from their payment networks in order to comply with international sanctions.
Banned from football
In a move that will resonate far beyond the business community, the world football organization FIFA and the European body UEFA have banned Russian teams from participating in the games. “Football is fully united here and in full solidarity with all the people affected in Ukraine,” a joint statement said. The entertainment world has also reacted, with Sony Pictures halting the release of new films in Russia, according to Nikkei, which quoted the company as saying.
The boycott of one of Russia’s most iconic products, vodka, is also gaining momentum, with at least three US governors ordering the removal of Russian-made or branded spirits from stores. One of New Zealand’s largest liquor chains has taken thousands of bottles of Russian vodka out of storage, filling empty shelves with Ukrainian flags.
Mark McNami, a European director at the consulting firm FrontierView, was in Moscow two weeks ago to talk to executives about the potential consequences of the invasion. Many rejected the worst-case scenarios, he said, meaning they were not necessarily prepared for what had happened.
Many corporations will have difficulty supporting local operations due to the SWIFT ban and capital controls, he said. Firms in the energy or raw materials sector, or those selling to the Russian government, will face the potential risk of being perceived as “profitable from the war.”
Consumer goods companies with large-scale operations and local production in Russia cannot easily get away with it, even if they want to, but they are facing financial turmoil. Prior to last week’s invasion, Danone SA, which runs Russia’s largest dairy business and has been operating in Ukraine for more than 20 years, said it was introducing additional preparation plans for each military escalation.
Chief Financial Officer Jürgen Esser said the company was trying to buy more local ingredients for its products from both markets, where most raw materials are already local. Danone entered the Russian market three decades ago. The country accounts for about 5% of the company’s net sales, and Ukraine – less than 1%.
Carlsberg A / S is the largest brewery in Russia through its ownership of Baltika Breweries. Most of Baltika’s supply, production and customers are based in the country, which limits the direct impact of many sanctions, a Carlsberg spokeswoman said. The company has limited exports from and imports to Russia, where Carlsberg employs 8,400 people, but it is currently not possible to assess the full extent of the direct or indirect effects of the sanctions, she said. It employs 1,300 workers in Ukraine, where it shut down its breweries last week and sent workers home.
Foreign companies could face repulsion from the Russian government, which could encourage boycotts or, in extreme cases, take measures to seize assets, McNami said.
“If you have iconic brands from Italy, Germany, the United Kingdom and America, you are ready for revenge from the Russian government,” he said.
(Updates with Visa, MasterCard. An earlier update corrects a reference to Coca-Cola HBC’s operations in Ukraine.)
In just a few days, the global economic outlook darkened as troops fought in Ukraine and unexpectedly powerful financial sanctions shook the Russian economy and threatened to fuel global inflation.
The price of oil, natural gas and other commodities jumped on Monday. At the same time, the heavy burden on supply chains still operating in the pandemic increased as the United States, Europe and its allies tightened the screws on Russia’s financial transactions and froze hundreds of billions of dollars in central bank assets held abroad.
Russia has long been a relatively minor player in the world economy, accounting for only 1.7% of total world production, despite its huge energy exports. In recent years, President Vladimir Putin has undertaken further isolation by building a stockpile of foreign exchange reserves, reducing national debt and even banning the import of cheese and other foods from Europe.
But while Mr Putin has ignored a number of international norms, he cannot ignore the modern and vast financial system, which is largely controlled by governments and bankers outside his country. He has mobilized tens of thousands of his troops, and in response, Allied governments have mobilized their enormous financial power.
“Now it’s a gamble between a financial watch and a military watch, to evaporate the resources to wage war,” said Julia Friedlander, director of the Atlantic Council’s Economic Governance Initiative.
Together, invasion and sanctions bring a great deal of uncertainty and instability to economic decision-making, increasing the risk to the global perspective.
The sanctions were designed to avoid disrupting the main energy exports that Europe relies on, in particular for heating homes, power plants and filling gas tanks. This has helped reduce, but not erase, the rise in energy prices caused by the war and worries about disruptions in oil and gas supplies.
Concerns about shortages have also pushed up the prices of some cereals and metals, leading to higher costs for consumers and businesses. Russia and Ukraine are also major exporters of wheat and corn, as well as base metals such as palladium, aluminum and nickel, which are used in everything from mobile phones to cars.
Eye-catching transport costs are also expected to rise.
“We’ll see prices skyrocket for the ocean and air,” said Glenn Koepke, general manager of networking at FourKites, a supply chain consulting firm in Chicago. He warned that ocean tariffs could double or triple to $ 30,000 per container from $ 10,000 per container, and that air travel costs are expected to jump even higher.
Russia has closed its airspace to 36 countries, which means that ships will have to deviate to roundabouts, which makes them spend more on fuel and probably encourages them to reduce their cargo.
“We will also see a shortage of products,” Mr Koepke said. Although it is now a slower season, he said, “companies are increasing their volumes over the summer and this will have a big impact on our supply chain.”
In a stream of updates Monday, several Wall Street analysts and economists admitted they underestimated the extent of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the international response. With the rapid accumulation of events, estimates of potential economic consequences ranged from mild to severe.
Inflation was already a problem, reaching its highest level in the United States since the 1980s. Now questions about how much more inflation could rise – and how the Federal Reserve and other central banks are reacting – hung over every scenario.
“The Fed is in a box, inflation is 7.5 percent, but they know that raising interest rates will destroy markets,” said Desmond Lachman, a senior fellow at the American Institute of Entrepreneurship. “The choice of policy is not a good one, so I don’t see how happy it is.
Others were more cautious about the spillover effects given the isolation of the Russian economy.
Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said there were unpleasant questions, especially in Europe, about what the conflict would mean for inflation – and whether it was a prospect of stagflation in which economic growth slows and prices rise rapidly.
But overall, he said, “the damage is likely to be small.”
This does not mean that there will be no severe pain spots. Mr Posen noted that a handful of banks in Europe could be affected by their exposure to Russia’s financial system and that Eastern European companies could lose access to money in the country.
Thousands of people fleeing Ukraine are also moving to neighboring countries such as Poland, Moldova and Romania, which could increase their spending.
Turkey’s economy, which is already struggling, is likely to suffer a blow. Oxford Economics lowered its forecast for Turkey’s annual growth by 0.4 percentage points to 2.1 percent due to rising energy prices, financial market disruptions and declining tourism.
Russia’s attack on Ukraine and the global economy
Map 1 of 6
Growing concern. Russia’s attack on Ukraine could cause dizzying spikes in energy and food prices and could scare investors. The economic damage from supply disruptions and economic sanctions would be severe in some countries and industries and unnoticed in others.
The price of energy. Oil prices are already the highest since 2014 and have risen as the conflict escalates. Russia is the third largest oil producer, providing approximately one in 10 barrels consumed by the global economy.
Gas supplies. Europe receives nearly 40 percent of its natural gas from Russia and is likely to be overwhelmed by higher heating bills. Natural gas supplies are running low, and European leaders have accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of cutting supplies to gain a political advantage.
Lack of base metals. The price of palladium, used in car exhaust systems and mobile phones, is rising amid fears that Russia, the world’s largest metal exporter, could be cut off from world markets. The price of nickel, another key Russian export, is also rising.
Financial turmoil. Global banks are preparing for the effects of sanctions designed to limit Russia’s access to foreign capital and limit its ability to process payments in dollars, euros and other currencies that are crucial to trade. Banks are also on the lookout for retaliatory cyber attacks from Russia.
In 2021, 19% of its visitors come from Russia and 8.3% from Ukraine. Inflation, which has peaked at nearly 50 percent in two decades, is now estimated at 60 percent, Oxford said.
In the United States, the chairman of the Biden Board of Economic Advisers, Cecilia Rose, said the biggest impact on the US economy since the war has been rising gas prices. “It definitely darkened the outlook,” she told a forum in Washington.
Gasoline prices are about a dollar higher than a year ago, with a national average of $ 3.61 a gallon, according to the AAA.
Rising energy prices are hard on consumers, although they are good for producers – and the US economy has both.
Other oil-producing countries will also see revenue growth. And for Iran, which has been cut off from the global economy for years, demand for oil from other sources could help smooth talks to lift sanctions.
In the long run, the current conflict is likely to have an impact on the future budgetary decisions of several countries. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has announced that he will increase military spending to 2 percent of his economic output.
“Defense spending has been steadily declining in the world since World War II,” Jim Reed, managing director of Deutsche Bank, said in a note Monday. Now, with this change in “geopolitical tectonic plates,” he said, priorities are changing and “those levels are likely to rise.”
In Russia, the central bank and government have taken a series of actions, including doubling key interest rates to 20 percent to boost the ruble’s attractiveness, banning people from transferring money abroad and closing the stock market to contain damage and reduce panic.
“What is happening right now is that we are looking at the breakdown of one of the largest economies on the planet,” said Karl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. “And from what I know about tactics, it’s a dangerous tactic.”
Peter C. Goodman and Jeanne Smialek contributed to the reporting.
Bitcoin sign seen on a window in Toronto, May 8, 2014. REUTERS / Mark Blinch
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March 1 – Bitcoin jumped after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, backed by people in those countries who want to store and move money into anonymous and decentralized cryptocurrencies.
Russian ruble-denominated bitcoin trade increased when the invasion began on Thursday, with daily volumes up 259% from a day earlier to 1.3 billion rubles ($ 13.1 million), according to CryptoCompare.
Meanwhile, in Ukraine cryptocurrency exchange Kuna recorded its daily trading volume more than three times up to 150 million hryvnia ($ 5 million).
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Bea O’Carroll, managing director of Radkl, a digital asset investment firm, said the war and Western sanctions have seen bitcoin tend to be used to transfer value.
“Basically, having a currency that is not controlled by the government, that is not affected by the emergency … is really interesting,” she added. “Maybe this is the way Russia is changing its value. Similarly, on the other hand, there was “so people will gain value for Ukrainians.”
In the five days since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, bitcoin has risen 13%, while the US stock index S&P 500, which it often mimics, has risen by about 2% and traditional gold for safe play is now high. degree equal to an increase of as much as 3.5% on the day of the invasion.
About $ 300 million short positions in bitcoin were liquidated on the day of the attack, according to Coinglass, while Singapore-based QCP Capital said a good portion of the long leverage positions had been withdrawn.
In addition to being largely anonymous, cryptocurrencies and transactions are often stored in portfolios on decentralized platforms that can be accessed from anywhere.
GET INTO THE OLIGARCHS
“Bitcoin could be a potentially safe haven for Russian oligarchs evading sanctions, as there will be no censorship of the bitcoin network and cryptocurrency transactions,” said Ipek Ozcardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.
“Cryptocurrencies could act as a powerful means of storing value for many holdings, which should not be liquid.”
Still, for cryptocurrency fans, the fact that such holdings can offer a route around sanctions could be a double-edged sword.
“This could lead to NATO regulations against the use of cryptocurrency, but the other side is that there may be a wider acceptance of geopolitical shocks,” said Katie Talati, head of research at Arca’s digital asset manager.
Ukraine also quickly saw an opportunity in the scope and anonymity of the crypto world. Deputy Prime Minister Mikhail Fedorov tweeted the addresses of the bitcoin and ether portfolios, along with an appeal: “Stand with the people of Ukraine. You are now accepting donations of cryptocurrency.
Fedorov’s government and Ukrainian NGOs raised more than $ 22 million in cryptocurrencies after the appeals, according to blockchain analysis company Elliptic. Read more
Although bitcoin may emerge as a currency of choice in areas of geopolitical risk, however, market participants warn that there are differing views on whether it can more broadly become a “safe haven” asset, a form of digital gold.
For Zack Friedman, co-founder of the crypto brokerage company Secure Digital Markets, the profits of bitcoin after the invasion serve to impose the “story of the preservation of the value of bitcoin during turbulent times.”
STABLE BURNERS
Elsewhere, the money flows into “stable coins” that are pegged to traditional assets such as the US dollar.
According to CoinMarketCap, stablecoin transactions accounted for more than 83% of the total 24-hour cryptocurrency trading as of Friday.
USD Tether, the largest stablecoin, noted that its market capitalization climbed to an all-time high of nearly $ 80 billion, while gold-backed cryptocurrency PAX Gold added nearly $ 100 million to its market capitalization in two days.
($ 1 = 98.9450 rubles; $ 1 = 29.7000 hryvnias)
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Report by Lisa Mattakkal and Medha Singh in Bengaluru, Alun John in Hong Kong and Vidya Ranganathan in Singapore; Edited by Vidya Ranganathan and Pravin Char
Target said Tuesday that sales increased 9% in the fiscal fourth quarter as they overcame the challenges of the holiday supply chain and relied on e-commerce and customer profits during the pandemic.
The dissenter said he expects sales to continue to rise this year, even as buyers see food, fuel and other commodity prices rise. He predicts revenue growth with low to medium single digits and predicts adjusted earnings per share to increase with high single digits. These are above analysts’ expectations, according to Refinitiv.
Shares rose about 11% in pre-market trading.
The big retailer will spend its first day as a personal investor in New York since the start of the pandemic, a two-year period that has increased Target’s share price and earnings. Shares of the company jumped 84% since mid-March 2020, when Covid-19 was declared a pandemic. Its annual revenue has reached 106 billion dollars, which is almost 36% more in the last two years.
Investors will listen to Target compete for consumer money and time as people juggle more spending priorities in a reopening world and feel the sting of inflation.
CEO Brian Cornell said in a press release that Target would continue to differentiate “through accessibility, range, lightness and convenience”.
To do so, Cornell said in November that Target would protect low prices, even if it meant taking on some of the higher costs of transport, materials and labor.
The company is also targeting online services that have gained followers as safe, contactless ways to shop. From the fall, customers can make returns or pick up coffee from Starbucks without leaving the car in select stores – an advantage that can be enjoyed when people are again juggling fuller social calendars.
Sales through Target services for the same day – which include Drive Up, its option for pickup by the board; Ordering, retrieving online purchases in the store; and Shipt, its home delivery service, grew 45% in the fiscal year. This is after a growth of 235% in 2020.
Here is what Target reports for the fiscal fourth quarter ended January 29, compared to Refinitiv’s consensus estimates:
Earnings per share: $ 3.19 adjusted against $ 2.86 expected
Revenue: $ 31 billion versus expected $ 31.39 billion
Net income rose about 12% to $ 1.54 billion, or $ 3.21 per share, from $ 1.38 billion, or $ 2.73 per share, a year earlier. Excluding items, the retailer earned $ 3.19 per share, higher than the $ 2.86 per share expected by analysts surveyed by Refinitiv.
Total revenue rose to $ 31 billion from a year earlier, slightly loweranalysts’ expectations of $ 31.39 billion.
Target faces challenging comparisons due to the pandemic. In the holiday quarter, for example, it rose from a year ago, when Americans had extra dollars in incentive checks to spend on holiday gifts, and some Americans chose to consolidate shopping trips to reduce risk.
Comparable sales, a key retail indicator that tracks online and in-store sales that have been open for at least a year, rose 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter. That’s lower than the 10.5 percent profit analysts had expected, according to StreetAccount.
Customers made more trips to Target’s stores and website in the fourth quarter than a year ago, the company said. Combined online and in-store traffic increased by 8.1%, but the average amount of transactions increased by less than 1% compared to a year earlier.
The challenges in the supply chain put pressure on the company’s profits as Target had more manpower and higher pay in its distribution centers and paid more for freight and goods. As the company prepared for the start of the holiday quarter, Target had more than $ 2 billion in inventory more than the previous year to make sure it had something to put on store shelves.
Labor costs are also rising. Target said Monday that it will spend $ 300 million more next year on salaries and health benefits. This is increased pay as retailers compete for employees in the narrow market. It says starting salaries will range from $ 15 to $ 25 per employee per hour, based on role and local market. About 20% more employees will qualify for medical benefits as it reduces the minimum average hours per week from 30 hours to 25 hours, the company said.
The company has been working for a higher minimum wage for the past five years, as lawmakers in some cities and states have called for more pay. From July, hourly workers began earning at least $ 15 an hour.
In fiscal 2023 and beyond, Target said it expects annual earnings growth on average single-digit numbers and adjusted earnings per share on high single-digit numbers. He said he plans to spend $ 4 billion to $ 5 billion on capital expenditures each year.
This story is evolving. Please check again for updates.