President Emmanuel Macron visits the Camp des Milles memorial in Aix-en-Provence
PARIS (Portal) – A resignation of Emmanuel Macron from the presidency of the republic is among Saxo’s “shock” forecasts for 2023 presented on Tuesday, extreme scenarios also marked by record inflation, the energy crisis and war in Ukraine.
These predictions include the creation of a European army, a rise in the price of gold, international price control measures, or the formation of a coalition of billionaires to fund the search for new energy sources.
They obviously don’t represent the financial services group’s baseline scenario for the year ahead, but Saxo reminds that “all major market moves are triggered by shock events.”
For 2023, explains the group’s chief investment officer, Steen Jakobsen, the shock forecast is “based on the belief that a return to pre-pandemic disinflationary dynamics is impossible because we have entered a world war economy that is now striving to restore its national.” strengthening security on all fronts”.
The invasion of Russia by Ukraine could therefore, according to Saxo, prompt European Union countries to equip themselves with joint armed forces from 2028 by investing 10,000 billion euros over 20 years.
Persistent inflation could also prompt some countries, including the United States and the United Kingdom, to control prices and wages, while pushing gold prices to $3,000 an ounce from less than $1,800 today.
Emmanuel Macron’s resignation, mentioned by Saxo, would result from his inability to pass reforms or a budget without resorting to Article 49.3 of the Constitution as there is no majority. In this scenario, “Macron’s resignation opens the door to the Elysée Palace for Le Pen, a far-right candidate.”
Saxo also mentions the possibility that a country agrees to end all meat production by 2030, that the UK organizes a referendum on its return to the European Union, or that OPEC+ countries, China and India join forces to exit the International withdraw monetary fund and create a new reserve currency.
Saxo recalls that some of his previous “shock” predictions have come true: for example, the group had predicted in late 2014 that the UK would leave the European Union, and in late 2016 that Bitcoin’s value would then be close to 700 dollars, would triple in a year.
(Written by Marc Angrand, edited by Blandine Hénault)