(Updated at 10:55 p.m.)
The latest news on the bloody fighting on all Ukrainian fronts, from Kupyansk to the Antoniovsky Bridge, reports on-going Ukrainian attacks being contained or repulsed by Russian forces conducting tactical counterattacks in various sectors to gain control of advantageous positions keep or regain.
If little detailed news arrives from Kiev about the ongoing fighting and today the Ukrainian General Staff confines itself to announcing the killing of 530 Russian soldiers in the last 24 hours, bringing the total number of casualties to nearly 229,000 since February 24, 2022, there is more detailed information from the front The line comes once again from the Telegram channels of the so-called Russian “milbloggers”, certainly not neutral sources, but often themselves merciless to the mistakes and shortcomings of the Moscow Armed Forces and who regularly publish maps indicative of the Of certain interest in understanding the dynamics are warlike events.
Kherson front
The main development in the last few hours concerns the removal of the bridgehead established by Ukrainian light forces on the left bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region around the base of the long-ruined Antoniovsky Bridge.
A bridgehead established a week ago by Ukrainian light forces, moved across the river by small patrol boats (see map below) to take advantage of the withdrawal of Russian defense lines along the riverbank caused by flooding resulting from the destruction of the Novaya Dam became Kakhovka.
Yesterday, an Iskander ballistic missile killed 30 Ukrainian soldiers (according to the Russian Defense Ministry) by hitting the foot of the bridge (video below) and the pier around which a Ukrainian logistics center was being built to accommodate the influx of new forces, even if this were the case, the Ukrainians do not appear to have the river’s means of transporting large quantities of troops, weapons, vehicles and ammunition to the left bank.
Yesterday, Russian sources reported that after the rocket attack, raids were made on small towns along the river to evict Ukrainian soldiers, but the destruction of the bridgehead was announced today by the Russian governor of Kherson.
“Last night, the soldiers of the Dnieper group (Russian forces stationed on the Kherson front) cleared the area on the left bank near the Antonovsky bridge. The special forces fighters carried out a surprise attack behind the Ukrainian positions and approached from the river with boats,” Vladimir Saldo said in a Telegram post quoted by CNN.
At the time of writing, no related news has leaked from the Ukrainian commands, while the Russian Defense Ministry claims to have knocked out in the same river area an enemy sabotage and reconnaissance team during the attempted landing of two motorboats on the island of Antonovsky in the Kherson region.
A report quoted today at 1:00 p.m. by Russia’s Telegram channel Rybar confirmed that Russian troops, with the support of artillery, managed to clear the area near the Antonovsky Bridge from the enemy and advance towards Dachi, repelling the enemy from the Coastal area (in The map above shows the current situation after the Russian attack), despite the Ukrainian fire from the right bank of the river, which was countered by the precise fire of the Russian artillery, which would have destroyed several positions of Ukrainian howitzers and mortars.
According to other sources, the Russian attack was instead thwarted by a minefield and Ukrainian artillery fire, preventing the “Marines” of the Russian 127th Brigade from “clearing” the left bank of the enemy’s presence. On the evening of July 1, violent clashes are reported in the dachas near the Antonovsky Bridge, where the last remaining Ukrainian soldiers are said to be barricaded on the left bank of the Dnieper.
In any case, Rybar expects that the Ukrainian units will continue their attacks in this sector with regular river sorties, the aim of which for now is to force the Russians to keep troops and reserves in this area and thus send further reinforcements east to prevent the fronts of Zaporizhia and Donetsk, where the most significant Ukrainian offensive is underway.
Zaporizhia Front
On the hottest front, today’s Russian Defense Ministry bulletin confirms repeated Ukrainian attacks in all sectors of Zaporozhye, southern Donetsk and Donetsk, where the Russian army is repelling the attacks.
The Orekhov-Rabotino sector is still the focus of Ukrainian attacks, where the Russians believe Kiev’s troops have changed tactics after suffering heavy casualties in recent weeks, using smaller units in offensive reconnaissance operations involving the detachments be alternated to keep constant pressure on the Russian lines even with intensifying artillery fire.
Concentrations of Ukrainian forces with armored vehicles from the 65th and 47th brigades are reported on the Novodanilovka-Rabotino line, which could soon attack the positions of the Russian 291st and 70th regiments of the 42nd Guards Division.
Further east, in the so-called “Vremyevsky Ledge”, according to unofficial Russian sources, Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive reconnaissance and also using territorial units like the 128th Brigade to test Russian defenses in the Staromayorsky area.
The Ukrainian attack by the 31st and 36th Brigades was more intense, supported by artillery and mortar fire, in the Priyutnoye sector from the Levadnoye-Rivnopol line, where the Ukrainians had made some territorial gains by occupying Rivnopol in recent days.
According to Russian sources, to provide air support for the troops and penetrate deep into the Russian rear, the Ukrainians deployed a dozen Su-27, Su-25 and Su-24 aircraft on the Zaporizhia front, taking off from the airports of Starokonstantinov, Mirgorod and Dnipro. Telegram channel Rybar believes that Ukrainian attacks will intensify in the Novodonetsk and Urozhayny areas as well.
On June 30, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar spoke of a “partial success” by the Kiev forces on the Zaporizhia front, where the Ukrainians’ stated goal was to recapture Melitopol, Berdyansk and Crimea. Today, official Russian sources announced that Ukrainian attacks on Staromayorsk on Donetsk’s southern front were repelled by Vostok Group forces.
Almost a month into the Ukrainian counter-offensive, which began on June 4, it is interesting to see how the front line has changed, according to maps released by Russia’s Telegram channel Z Committee, which show the limited territorial advance of the Ukrainians point through an attack on the line of Russian outposts, anticipating the three lines of defense of Moscow troops.
Above the Rabotino front at the end of May and below at the end of June.
Maps from the same source also show changes in the front in the Pryutnoye – Novodonetsk sector. Below the front line in late May and further down in late June.
The same maps show the change of front between late May (below) and late June (below) in the westernmost part of Zaporizhia, between the villages of Lobkovoe and Pyatikhatki.
Donetsk front
On this front, the Russians claim to have repelled 15 enemy attacks in the Belogorovka sector, Artemovsk (Bakhmut for the Ukrainians), Pervomaiskoye, Lastochkino and Vodyanoye, inflicting heavy losses on the Ukrainians and especially on the 54th Brigade, which would also have lost an ammunition depot.
The Russians claim to have destroyed about 40 armored vehicles of various types that the enemy lost in attacks on the Kurdyumovka industrial and railway zone between Gorlovka and Artemovsk, where the Ukrainians are planning an advance south and north of the inhabited center in May the men of PMC Wagner engaged in fierce fighting with airborne troops flanked by forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR).
Late in the afternoon of July 1, armored forces of the Ukrainian 57th Brigade broke through the Russian front line in the Berkhovka Heights area north of Bakhmut and were then pushed back by the Russian counterattack.
The Z-Komitet map shows how the Bachmut/Artemovisk front changed from late May (top) to late June (bottom).
In the rear of the Donetsk front, in the June 27 Iskander ballistic missile bombardment of Kramatorsk, which Kiev has condemned as a crime against civilians who crowded a pizzeria, Moscow claims to have instead killed two Ukrainian generals and about fifty officers and about twenty foreign mercenaries and military advisers.
“According to current information, after a high-precision attack on June 27 in the city of Kramatorsk on the temporary deployment site of the 56th separate motorized infantry brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, two generals attended the headquarters meeting, up to 50 “officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as up to to 20 foreign mercenaries and military advisers” were killed.
Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine Hanna Malyar said on June 30 that Ukrainian forces had “taken the strategic lead” and advanced along the northern and southern flanks of Bakhmut, where the Russians had concentrated troops in large numbers.
“Ukrainian forces are confidently moving along the flanks around Bakhmut. However, the occupiers brought “a large number of forces into the area” and had “an advantage in terms of numbers and weapons.” We haven’t entered the city itself yet, but continue to check the southwestern outskirts. However, the main battles are taking place now. It can be said that the offensive goes in several directions. It’s not just on the hips, it’s on a much broader front now.”
On June 29, the Chief of Staff of the Ukrainian Army, General Oleksandre Syrsky, reiterated his determination to attack the Russians on Bakhmut’s flanks.
South of Bakhmut, the Ukrainians are also attacking in the Soledar area, also captured by PMC Wagner last January and defended today by the 200th Brigade, which has reportedly repelled four attacks in the past 24 hours.
Further north, however, the Ukrainians are struggling to contain the offensive thrust of the Russian Central Group forces with the paratroopers of the 76th Division pushing through the dense Dibrow forests towards Lyman and, according to unofficial Russian sources, could soon renew the offensive momentum.
Luhansk/Kharkiv front
In this sector, the front seems to have come to a standstill after the advance of the Russian troops of the Zapad group towards Kupyansk in recent days. The Russians recorded attacks with helicopters and artillery against the concentrations of Ukrainian troops in the Timkovka, Topoli and Berestovoye oblasts, in the Kharkiv region (below the map of the front from the US think tanks Institute for the Study of the War).
reviews
Despite the limited territorial advance and the numerous sources (including from the Ukrainian frontline detachments themselves) reporting appalling casualties among the attackers, the Ukrainian counter-offensive continues with full use of all available reserves to break through enemy lines and counter the delay to bridge the original plans, which according to rumors from Ukrainian sources called for Berdyansk to be recaptured by June 20.
In addition to the strong Russian defense lines, the causes of the Ukrainian difficulties also included the lack of experienced young officers capable of leading platoons and companies under fire, consisting largely of recruits with a few weeks of training (consequence of the heavy losses to veterans in the long battle of Bakhmut), but also the difficulties in using the heavy weapons supplied by the West and destroyed in large numbers.
Not only do the Russians view these vehicles as priority targets (individual soldiers receive monetary rewards for destroying or capturing them), but their operation has also proved too complex for crews who have spent a few months training on these vehicles, which are very differ from those supplied by Russia/Soviet Type.
According to the Military Chronicle, some leading brigades in the Zaporizhzhia counteroffensive, such as the 47th, 65th and 128th, lost a large number of western vehicles on the battlefield (Leopard 2, Bradley, MRAP M-ATV, MaxxPro, AMX-10RC) . Mastiff and Wolfhound, which cannot be replaced in a short time, prefer fighting by Russian-Soviet means, also because the intensive war effort and mechanical wear and tear over the last month seems to have reduced the availability of 120mm ammunition for their weapons of the western tanks and spare parts for all new vehicles to be delivered to Ukraine by NATO allies.
The Russians are also intensifying their defenses thanks to the use of new weapons (we note the first armed use of the S-70 Okotnik-B stealth drone and the new Vector 120 tube-launched circular ammunition) and the massive use of ISDM Zemledeliye quick-mining (in the photo below). ), which allows to mine (or re-mine) large parts of the territory in a short time.
Despite heavy casualties and difficulties on the ground, Ukrainian attacks are likely to increase in the coming days ahead of the NATO summit in Vilnius on July 11-12, which marks a turning point for Kiev between Western support for the war effort and pressure on Zelensky to negotiate with Putin (if the Russian is willing).
As the Wall Street Journal noted yesterday, Ukrainian forces have not even managed to reach the first line of defense but have been pushing toward the tentative line of outposts for nearly a month.
In an interview with the Washington Post on June 30, Ukrainian Chief of Staff Valery Zaluzhny did not hide his concerns, expressing frustration at the Western Allies’ lack of supply of combat aircraft, lack of artillery ammunition, and Western assessments of successes in the counteroffensive are a long time coming.
“This is not a show, it is not a game to bet on. Every meter is earned with blood every day,” noted the general. According to the head of Ukraine’s armed forces, without the necessary supplies, no military plan is viable: “However, we are making progress.” Maybe not as fast as observers would like, but that’s their problem.”
Zaluzhny also admitted that several Leopard tanks received from Germany were destroyed by Russian forces. “We didn’t get the leopards to display in a parade, or for politicians and celebrities to take photos with. We took them to fight the war. And a leopard on the battlefield is no longer a leopard but a target.
Zaluzhny (whom the Russians had believed dead or seriously wounded) said he had expressed his concern to US military chief of staff Gen. Mark Milley, who yesterday dismissed concerns that the counteroffensive in Ukraine was progressing too slowly. Milley said he expects the first campaign to last between six and 10 weeks. “It will be very difficult. It’s going to take a long time,” Milley said. “Nobody should have any illusions about this.”
The Washington Post revealed again yesterday that CIA Director William Burns made a secret trip to Ukraine in early June where Kiev officials gave him a strategy to retake Russian-held territories and begin negotiations for a ceasefire with Moscow by the end of June year revealed year.
According to a US official interviewed by the newspaper, the plan envisages that Ukrainian forces move their artillery and missile systems near the Russian-annexed border with Crimea and then start negotiations, because “Russia will only negotiate if it…” will feel threatened,” a senior Ukrainian official is quoted as saying.
Conditions that may not materialize until the Ukrainians regain full control of the Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts.
@GianandreaGaian
Photos and maps: RvVoenkory, Z-Komitet, ISW, Rybar, Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and Ministry of Defense of Russia.
