Sergio Rodríguez Gelfenstein*, contributor to Prensa Latina
A few days later, on May 10, the adviser to the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, Mikhail Podoliak, stated that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not a “Hollywood movie” and therefore one should not wait for Kiev’s counteroffensive, it was a turning point. “It doesn’t work that way,” Podoliak said. According to the official, “It’s not a question of a week or a month.” It depends on many events, because you can be more successful [un día] and one less ». He added that the counter-offensive may not be a single event, but a series of events over time: “There is no scenario where we can stop in the middle.”
In this regard, Ukrainian Defense Minister Olexii Reznikov told The Washington Post that expectations of a Ukrainian counter-offensive were overestimated. He expressed, “Most people have big expectations, which can lead to emotional disappointment. The western partners told me that now they need the next success story because we have to show it to our peoples… But I can’t tell you how big that success will be. Ten kilometers, 30 kilometers, 100 kilometers, 200 kilometers? Ideally, the offensive should cut off the rear lines of Russian troops and reduce their offensive capabilities.”
signs of failure
Taking all of these statements together, one gets the impression that public opinion is being prepared for the failure of a time-pressured action dubbed the “Spring Counter-Offensive” that had to begin soon.
The G-7 meeting in Hiroshima last May appeared to have influenced the early start of such an operation. There it was established that Ukraine was a confrontation between democracies and autocracies. Hence the importance of the much-mentioned counter-offensive for the West. In reality, it is more in the interests of the West than Ukraine
It was “sold” that the counteroffensive would ultimately tip the balance of the war in Ukraine’s favour. The problem is that this action and its success depended on the collapse of the Russian economy, which would not allow Moscow to respond successfully.
It was also said that Western pressure would create discontent in Russia, leading to citizen unease and even a coup against President Putin.
It was also emphasized that the arrival of the Patriot anti-aircraft systems first, the Leopard, Abrams and Challenger tanks later, and now the long-range Storm Shadow missiles and F-16 aircraft would be crucial to the outcome of the conflict. None of that happened
In recent days, Western media have started talking about a possible failure of the counter-offensive, reflecting the West’s fear of the consequences it could have on its citizens. It was even said that the counter-offensive, even if it didn’t happen, was already a success because it forced Russia to fortify a large part of the territory, which required the deployment of a large amount of resources that could not have been foreseen. An opinion that does not stand up to serious analysis.
Cracks in triumphalism and elections in the US
Fear is spreading across many industries. And the cracks are becoming more and more visible. Questions reflecting doubt and uncertainty are becoming more common every day. The triumph of propaganda campaigns is beginning to take its toll. Opinions clash: politicians reflect desires, the military reflect realities. There are no victories to report and it doesn’t look as if there could be any in the medium and long term.
The specter of the US elections looms over the Ukrainian government and Europe. The possibility of a Republican victory that would halt, or at least significantly reduce, the flow of aid to Kiev reveals an undisguised fear in European capitals. In any case, the concerns stem not from love and concern for the people of Ukraine being used as cannon fodder in defense of Western interests, but from the implications that a likely Russian victory in the conflict and the failure of states could have. United States, NATO and Europe in the same.
If the counter-offensive doesn’t work, it will leave a mark on the consciences of European citizens, especially if the conflict is protracted and governments’ capacity to respond to people’s needs is weakening and they start to ask questions about how long their taxes will continue to be used for Arms shipments to Ukraine while their own problems remain unresolved?
The confirmed facts
After many announcements, the counter-offensive appeared to have started last Sunday, June 4, with an operation first in five directions and two days later in seven directions, resulting in a total of three days of fighting on all fronts, with Ukraine deploying up to 3,715 troops lost. 52 tanks, 207 armored vehicles, 134 cars, five planes and two helicopters without Kiev being able to achieve its goals, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.
For their part, open sources stated the confirmed destruction of 77 Ukrainian tanks, armored personnel carriers and armored personnel carriers. In reality, the number is significantly higher, but in this case it is only about confirmed losses.
If we stick to these non-precise numbers, then, judging by the amount of equipment destroyed, in eight days of the offensive, during which they used an inexplicable tactics of frontal attacks, the Ukrainian troops lost about 7 thousand to 7.5 thousand fighters between dead and Wounded lost against the established Russian defenses deployed on technically well-prepared terrain.
It must be said that in those first days, a significant part of Ukrainian vehicles was hit before approaching Russian positions, which is the result of dense transport and good interaction with aviation and artillery. In any case, President Putin himself warned that Russia cannot be trusted because the Ukrainian forces still have significant reserves and have not yet struck the main blow.
Two weeks into the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s offensive, it became clear that their army on the ground was not displaying original or clear tactics, resulting in them losing the most active (and mobile) part of their vanguard.
Heavy losses in both personnel and equipment meant that the plan, which was based on a rapid advance of 20–40 km, failed. This forced the Ukrainian command to make adjustments: one of the tasks of the reserve plan in each direction now seems not to be a deep breakthrough in the line of defense of the Russian armed forces, but to expand the bridgeheads that they manage to gain in the west and east for additional reserves to be able to move. This was checked on June 13-14, but it didn’t work either.
The disadvantages of Ukraine
Ukraine has shown that operationally they are unable to deploy their reserves and that is essential in an offensive. From this it can be concluded that the serious setbacks that Russia has inflicted on its transport and logistics sector are gradually beginning to weigh. About 65 percent of the assets sent on the offensive in the first few days were destroyed or disabled.
On the other hand, Russia has demonstrated a new tactical modality that Ukrainian forces have been slow to grasp. The Russian army leaves small towns or hamlets, the coordinates of which have previously been carefully studied. They were occupied by Ukraine, which celebrated their capture to the great delight of their commanders and to the furor of media officials, who in bombastic headlines proclaimed “the first successes of the counter-offensive.”
However, just a few hours later, due to the reduced captured space and timely artillery, air and missile preparation in front of it, the surprised Ukrainian forces, forced to leave the “occupied” territories, met with extraordinary precision and power the surprised Ukrainian forces. The unusual thing is that they repeated it multiple times in the same place. A highly emblematic case is the village of Piatiyatki, where Ukraine has suffered gigantic and needless casualties, evidenced only by the clumsiness of the political leadership, which sends its young soldiers to certain death only to meet demands for the continuity of those ordered by Washington to meet offensive. , Brussels, London and Berlin.
The desperation of NATO and the European Union (EU) is clear. On Sunday 11th, the EU said in a statement that it would speed up the delivery of arms to Kiev, but also admitted that the conflict could drag on for months.
What is the American mainstream press saying?
The New York newspaper The Wall Street Journal even went so far as to say that the “counteroffensive was over” and that “Ukrainian forces had suffered enormous casualties,” forcing commanders to halt operations to explore other avenues , to break through the Russian forces defense lines and solve the problem caused by air inferiority.
The New York Times, for its part, reported with alarm: “Some of the weapons donated by the Allies, which caused a great deal of public attention, have become so decrepit that they were only considered fit to be cannibalized for spare parts.” In the same vein The Washington Post on June 17, after interviewing unidentified experts, said Ukraine was unlikely to make rapid progress in the counteroffensive.
They recently discovered that Russia has solidly fortified likely attack zones, making them a real headache for Ukrainian military leaders. It is worth noting that the Russian high command managed to establish the main directions of the Ukrainian offensive, to concentrate forces and means, and to eliminate the decisive element of surprise that could have favored Kiev. This allowed Russia to destroy a large amount of weapons and equipment in the first days, which made the success of such an action even less viable, stopping the offensive, which was eventually carried out through the areas where Russia was held and /or was slowed down has combined the best forces and means and led the Ukrainian armed forces into a veritable hell of fire, destruction and death.
probable result
We’ll have to wait and see what the ailing Ukrainian command will do. Under current conditions, it would not be surprising if Russia launched an offensive in the north, forcing Ukraine to reallocate its reserves for such an action, which would finally cripple its offensive. If that happens, it would be the beginning of the end of such a mythological and imaginative operation.
rmh/srg
*Degree in International Studies, Masters in International and Global Relations. Doctor of Political Science
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