DEFENSE

Updated 02/15/23 at 03:48

The North American Aerospace Defense Command sought reassurance by stating that such Russian activity “occurs regularly and is not considered a threat.”

Although the operation is described as “routine” by the American authorities, it took place in the tense context of the war in Ukraine and the Chinese balloon affair in the skies of the United States. Two American warplanes intercepted four Russian planes near Alaska, the North American Aerospace Defense Command (Norad) said on Tuesday.

This interception of Russian aircraft, including models of the Tu-95 heavy bomber and Su-35 fighter, took place on Monday, Norad said. This is an operation consisting of escorting a potentially competing aircraft that is deemed too close to or has invaded an airspace.

An operation “in international airspace”

“Russian aircraft remained in international airspace and did not invade US or Canadian sovereign airspace,” he added, noting that such Russian activities “occurred regularly and were not considered a threat or provocative activity.”

If that interception was a routine operation, February saw the North American-based fighter jets have an opportunity to conduct real and rare offensive air action by shooting down a Chinese balloon described by Washington as a spy off the east coast of the country and three other unidentified flying objects.

20 minutes with AFP

Russia remains focused on oil, even in the face of the EU and US embargo. Economic sanctions against Russia after invading Ukraine are increasing in number and scope, the impact is visible but perhaps less than expected. Putin is banking on the resilience of Russia’s economy to support the war effort in Ukraine, and the policies currently being implemented are having an impact. Despite sanctions and embargoes, there is a ghost fleet shipping Russian oil products around the world. The trick seems to be working for now: things might change in the future, but revenue isn’t what it used to be.

Because Russia matters

Russia is a major player in global energy markets and one of the top three oil producers in the world, vying for the top spot with Saudi Arabia and the United States. In general, Russia relies a large part of its economy on the sale of fossil fuels, which accounted for 45 percent of the federal budget in 2021. In 2022, Russian gains have been limited by sanctions enacted after invading Ukraine, but the Kremlin is reorganizing to give its markets a new direction.

Russia cuts oil production. And the prices go up

The huge pipeline network allows Russia to export large quantities of crude oil not only to Europe but also to Asia. In 2012, Russia launched the 1.6 million bpd Espo pipeline, which sends oil directly to Asian markets like China and Japan. Pipelines are not the only means by which Russia must export oil: there are also the railways and, most importantly, the tankers that depart from the country’s north-western ports.

Before the sanctions, Europe was the first reference market for Russian oil exports: in 2021, Russia covered 10 percent of diesel demand and about 20 percent of European refineries. After the sanctions come into effect, the Kremlin will realign its routes.

Who does Russia sell oil to?

After the sanctions came into effect, Russia also increased production and exports of oil and derivatives. In 2022, Russian companies achieved a string of wells in their oil fields, the likes of which had not been seen in more than a decade. According to the latest Crea data, Russian export volumes of crude oil and petroleum products increased in the week of January 30 to February 5, 2023: Russia seems to be responding to the risk of lower revenues from sanctions with increasing exports. Volumes have increased, but revenues aren’t what they used to be: since the start of the war in Ukraine, products manufactured in Europe have halved.

Russia’s oil and gas revenues were 46.4 percent lower than a year earlier, according to Portal. The Treasury Department attributed the decline primarily to lower oil prices and the slump in natural gas exports. Meanwhile, the European Union is no longer the target market for Russian fossil fuel exports.

Why China could derail the Russian oil embargo

Last week, China surpassed the EU in terms of import volumes. In general, Russia is turning to Asia to offset losses in the European market. In the past week, the value of Russian crude oil exports has increased thanks to deliveries to Egypt and Turkey.

Now Russia plans to direct 80 percent of its oil exports to “friendly” countries. In addition, shipments with unknown destinations are increasing: After an initial slump due to the sanctions, Russian oil production and exports have increased, also thanks to “ghost shipments”.

Putin’s ghost fleet

Russia circumvents sanctions thanks to fleet of ‘ghost ships’ The use of untraceable activities was common even before the sanctions. A cargo ship can also disappear or lose sight of its cargo. For example, a Russian tanker may transfer its cargo to another non-Russian flag vessel without the activity being tracked. In the past, Venezuela and Iran have used this ruse to escape Western sanctions.

The European Union is responding by blacklisting a shipping company based in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, accused of helping to circumvent Russian oil sanctions. The company is said to have bought Russian tankers to change their country of origin. Meanwhile, data confirms that Russian crude shipped on “ghost ships” rose to more than 9 million barrels in January, up from 3 million barrels in November, the Financial Times reported.

What can happen with sanctions

Russia’s oil production is unaffected by the sanctions, although revenues have suffered. Going forward, the scenario remains uncertain and the Russian oil industry has to face other challenges: according to Bloomberg, Russia does not have the capacity to store oil on a large scale, and if companies do not sell what they produce, the system could quickly collapse in a crisis .

Diesel and petrol, turn the pump – everything changes again

It is too early to assess the impact of the February 5 European embargo on the purchase of refined fuels, including diesel, from Russia. Meanwhile, Russian refineries produced about 2 more than January in the first 8 days of February, according to data cited by Bloomberg. In the long run, lost revenue from fossil fuel exports could weigh on government coffers.

Italy is still paying for Putin’s war, but Gazprom’s revenues have plummeted

Russia has been forced to sell foreign exchange reserves to cover a deficit that totaled 1.76 trillion rubles, more than $22 billion, in January to cover the costs of a so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine. Unless the Kremlin’s adjustments to markets bring oil and gas export revenues back to previous levels, the war will be less and less sustainable for Russia’s coffers.

Read on today

At least four people have died in New Zealand from Tropical Storm Gabrielle, which Prime Minister Chris Hipkins said was the country’s “most severe weather event” this century. One of the fatalities was a firefighter who was buried in a landslide. A child is also among the dead. The tropical cyclone also left thousands of people homeless in New Zealand.

The Hawke’s Bay region of the North Island was hardest hit. Military trucks brought about 9,000 people to safety there, Radio New Zealand reported on Wednesday. Initially, they will be accommodated at a sports center in the town of Hastings.

“Gabrielle” battered New Zealand’s North Island on Monday with winds of up to 140 kilometers per hour. The cyclone brought heavy rain and waves up to 11 meters high. In some places the bodies of water were so high that only the roofs of the houses could be seen. Emergency services were deployed with several helicopters to rescue people who had fled to the rooftops. According to Emergency Management Minister Kieran McAnulty, more than 140,000 people were still without power. He spoke of a “massive, unprecedented weather event”.

There were heavy thunderstorms on Tuesday as well. Officials said the worst appeared to be over on Wednesday, “but we’re not out of the woods yet.”

Meanwhile, Britain’s Princess Anne visited the Crisis Management Center in the capital, Wellington. “I admire the courage of the people of New Zealand in this difficult and worrying time,” she said afterwards. New Zealand is part of the Commonwealth. “My thoughts are with all New Zealanders whose homes or livelihoods were affected by Cyclone Gabrielle.”

The tropical storm moved across the Pacific state with strong winds and heavy rain since Monday. On Tuesday, the government declared a national emergency – for just the third time in the country’s history.

The storm wreaked havoc on the North Island in particular. Bridges were destroyed, roads impassable. Some places were cut off from the outside world. In several places, schools are expected to remain closed until the end of the week. On Wednesday, “Gabrielle” moved to the southern part of the North Island. The MetService weather service warned of heavy rain in the region.

1 of 1 stock image. Children play while people hold a giant Ukrainian flag to protest Russia’s intervention in Ukraine during Lithuanian independence celebrations in Vilnius, Lithuania, Tuesday March 11, 2014. — Photo: AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis Stock Image . Children play while people hold a giant Ukrainian flag to protest Russia’s intervention in Ukraine during Lithuanian independence celebrations in Vilnius, Lithuania, Tuesday March 11, 2014. — Photo: AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis

At least 6,000 children have been sent to reeducation camps in Russia since Ukraine was invaded in February 2022, according to an analysis by Yale University in the United States published on Tuesday (14).

“The primary purpose of the institutions we identified appears to be political reeducation,” Nathaniel Raymond, one of the researchers, said at a news conference.

The report is the latest from Conflict Watch, a US State Departmentsponsored project investigating alleged human rights abuses and war crimes committed by Russia.

Scientists say Russian authorities, including the federal government, are coordinating the system, which includes at least 43 facilities across Russia and Crimea.

The key points the report revealed were:

• Several groups of children were observed arriving at the facility between February 2022 and January 2023.
• Children in “reeducation camps” or other Russian institutions ranged in age from 4 months to 17 years;
• In some camps, youth as young as 14 received military training. There is no evidence that they were sent into battle;
• In most institutions (78%), young people were reeducated according to the Russian government’s perspective on national culture, history and society;
• The analysis identified 43 shelters across Russia and Crimea holding Ukrainian children, two of which are linked to the deportation of orphans: a psychiatric hospital and a family center;
• Among the juveniles were those with clear parental or family guardianship, Russians considered orphans, those in the care of state institutions in Ukraine prior to the invasion, and those whose custody was unclear or uncertain due to the war;
• In several situations, those responsible were forced to allow young people to visit the “camps”. Reports of parents refusing their children’s participation were recorded but ignored;
• For children in 10% of the evaluated institutions, the return date was suspended or postponed by the Russian authorities. In many cases, those responsible did not receive any further information;
• Some of the children were transferred through the system and adopted by Russian families or sent to an orphanage in Russia.

“What is documented in this report is a clear violation of the 4th Geneva Convention,” the treaty that protects civilians in time of war, Raymond said.

According to him, the report could be evidence that Russia committed genocide during its war in Ukraine, since the transfer of children for the purpose of altering, altering or eliminating national identity can constitute a component act of genocide.

Ukrainian prosecutors have said they are investigating allegations of forced deportation of children as part of efforts to bring genocide charges against Russia.

“This network stretches from one end of Russia to the other,” Raymond said, adding that researchers believe the number of facilities holding Ukrainian children exceeds 43.

The analysis shows that the camp system and the adoption of Ukrainian children taken from their homeland by Russian families “appears to be approved and coordinated at the highest levels of government in Russia,” from the federal government down to local authorities.