Officials are ordering new intelligence assessments of Putin’s thinking
Putin’s military campaign, which killed civilians, as well as his order to put Russia’s nuclear forces on a higher level of combat readiness, have sparked new requests from US politicians in recent days to intelligence agencies for information on his thinking, according to several American officials familiar with the matter.
Understanding what the leader has in mind is one of the most difficult tasks intelligence analysts face. But in Putin’s case, it is crucial for decision-makers to understand how he can act so that they can calibrate their answers and try to find some way to end the war in Ukraine.
Intelligence agencies routinely analyze world leaders, and it is common for these profiles to be updated and reviewed during a crisis. Analysts are now looking closely at Putin’s every statement and move as an indication of his mental state, temperament and plans.
“Nowadays, we ask a lot of our intelligence colleagues [about] Putin’s attitude, “said a US administration official who, like others, spoke on condition of anonymity to describe sensitive discussions. “We understand that he was isolated during the covid and was surrounded by ‘yes, men.’ Everyone is looking for cracks when it comes to their power, but we don’t see significant cracks. “
Prior to the invasion, US and British intelligence analysts warned that Putin was misinformed by his advisers, who gave him an overly rosy picture of how easy the invasion was likely to pass. These fears are growing as the Russian military prepares for a long and bloody battle for the capital, Kyiv.
“Their circles tend to be isolated,” said a second official in the administration of autocratic regimes such as Russia.
“We have all seen the images of Putin and the physical distance between him and the people around him,” the official said, noting photos of Putin sitting a few meters from his advisers at a long table. “In a way, it could be a metaphor for what’s happening.”
The West’s uncertainty about Putin’s access to reliable information is particularly worrying, said US and European officials, who are worried about how he might interpret Western media comments that the European Union is sending fighter jets to Ukraine or imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Ukraine.
US and European leaders are unlikely to approve such measures, but talks on them could now be included in Russia’s next steps, officials fear.
“We need to manage escalation risk,” said one European official. “Putin is not doing well. He yells at the staff. His war is behind schedule. This is a dangerous time for Putin. “
“If the Russians hear that Western leaders are thinking of a no-fly zone, his thoughts will return to Libya in 2011, where NATO is intervening, and months later [Moammar] Gaddafi was taken out of a hole and killed, “the official said.
In 2011, NATO intervened in the Libyan civil conflict by establishing a no-fly zone designed to close Libyan airspace to all flights except humanitarian supplies. Fighting has led to the overthrow of Gaddafi, the country’s leader who was killed by rebels after fleeing his palace.
Some leaders have already taken steps to try to avoid provoking a disproportionate response from Russia by rejecting unlikely policies, such as a no-fly zone.
“We have no intention of entering Ukraine by land or air,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Monday, noting his responsibility to ensure that the conflict does not spiral out of control, escalate or turn into a full-scale war in Europe with allies. from NATO. “
White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki also said there were reasons for the no-fly zone, which would include US planes patrolling the skies and potentially shooting down Russian planes, “not a good idea.”
Some European intelligence officials have also expressed concern that the tougher Putin’s sanctions, the more he could be forced to “set an example” by striking at more civilian targets in Ukraine.
Understanding Putin is more difficult than the lack of human resources in the intelligence community with close access to the Russian leader.
In 2016, Russians spying for the United States were able to demonstrate that Putin had personally instructed his intelligence services to intervene in the US presidential election. According to current and former officials familiar with the situation, sources with such a level of detail about Putin’s decision-making are no longer in Russia.
Intelligence analysts are not completely devoid of human insights. An FBI report in recent days quoted a source who spoke to another person who said he knew Putin was extremely angry about the sanctions, which he said were a disproportionate response to his invasion, according to someone familiar with the report.
Analysts are now reviewing earlier reports from the source to determine if the source really has close enough access to Putin to know how he reacts and what he can say, the man said. The report also warns that the source could provide information to influence the US government to ease sanctions by portraying Putin as angry and insulting, the man added.
The FBI intelligence document was first released by CNN.
The FBI declined to comment.
Analysts are also paying close attention to what Putin is saying publicly. His pre-invasion televised address, in which he claimed that Ukraine was not a sovereign state, was a catalog of long-standing complaints against Ukraine and the West, filled with historical inaccuracies and lies. But analysts say it is also a clear indication of Putin’s determination that Ukraine actually belongs to Russia and should never be admitted to NATO.
“We underestimate Putin’s words at our own risk,” said a US official familiar with Russia. “And I think he was extremely consistent in what he said about what he wanted and what he wanted.
To that end, Putin’s order to bring its nuclear forces on high alert should be seen as a strong indication of how committed he is to securing guarantees for the future of Ukraine and NATO, the official said, adding that he could imagine Putin to detonate nuclear weapons in the atmosphere over uninhabited areas as a warning to the West.
“He believes we are not taking him seriously. He believes that we have always seen him as weak and that in the end he will back down, “said the official.
Matt Zapotoski contributed to this report.
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