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Two down, two of the “Boras Four” went to sign. Plus: Ken on Mike Trout, a sea change in coaching and how Evan Carter or Wyatt Langford could solve a decades-long mystery in Texas. I'm Levi Weaver here with Ken Rosenthal – welcome to the Windup!
Why Chapman earns less than Bellinger
Matt Chapman is the latest member of the Boras Four to find a home – he signed a three-year, $54 million deal with the Giants over the weekend. Opt-outs after each of the first two years would allow Chapman to re-enter the free agent market.
If that sounds familiar, maybe it's because Bellinger's deal to return to the Cubs was remarkably similar: three years, $80 million with opt-outs. So why is Chapman's number $26 million lower than Bellinger's when, at first glance, their production last year was pretty similar? Bellinger finished with 4.4 bWAR and 4.1 fWAR, while Chapman posted 4.4 bWAR and 3.5 fWAR.
Both players, if healthy, will likely be free agents again next winter. In fact, the Giants described Chapman's contract as a one-year deal worth $18 million ($16 million in salary plus a $2 million signing bonus) with two player options. Bellinger, on the other hand, will make $30 million in 2024 – a gap of $12 million.
I think there are several reasons for the difference.
First, while neither player is a dinosaur, Chapman (who turns 31 this year) is just over two years older than Bellinger. The older the player, the higher the chance of injury, and a bad injury could mean a player opts to play in 2025 rather than hit the market while he's rehabbing.
Second, Chapman struggled a lot in the second half last year. As of May 10, he was hitting .338/.425/.579 (1.004 OPS) in 36 games. From that point on, he hit .205/.297/.370 (.666 OPS) in his final 104 games.
His return to the Bay Area signals several things: The team has kept its promise to improve the defense, and that could be the end JD Davis era in San Francisco.
Other giants:
Ken's notebook: Trout's goal for 2024
After battling injuries the last two seasons, Mike Trout is ready to compete for MVP again this year. (Darren Yamashita/USA Today)
From my latest column:
Mike Trout hears the noise. Trout is content being with the Angels. He doesn't want to win. He won't demand a trade. It doesn't bother him. Quite the opposite.
“It drives me more,” Trout said in an interview I did with him for Fox Sports last week. “The overall satisfaction if we win here will be greater than if I had gone somewhere else.
“So when I hear, 'Trout needs to be traded' or 'He's happy to be there,' they can say whatever they want. I have one thing on my mind. That’s trying to win here.”
Taunt if you must. FanGraphs predicts the Angels will finish 78-84, ahead of only the woeful A's in the American League West. PECOTA has them at 74-88.
The 32-year-old Trout isn't ignoring the obvious, as the team looks set to miss the playoffs for the 10th straight year – which is why he continues to lobby management to add free agents. But he has something else on his mind, something that would help improve the team's performance.
He wants to return to MVP form.
Let's not forget who Trout is, a player who finished first or second in MVP voting seven times in eight years between 2012 and 2019. It wasn't until 2022 that he hit 40 home runs in just 119 games. Last season, he hit 18 home runs before July 3, but played in only one game after that because he fractured his left femur on an off-field foul. He finished with an OPS of .858, a career low.
It was Trout's third straight season in which he missed significant time. In 2021, he did not play after May 17 due to a right calf strain. In 2022, he missed more than a month due to left chest inflammation. The injuries, Trout said, prevented him from finding a proper offensive rhythm that only consistent offense allows. “I haven’t made it,” he said, “where I can be myself.”
Can Langford or Carter solve the 10-year mystery in Texas?
On November 25, 2013, David Murphy, coming off a poor year with the Texas Rangers, signed with Cleveland as a free agent. In the ten seasons since, the Rangers have employed 57 different players in left field, including Will Venable, the current Rangers assistant manager, and Mike Napoli, who is absolutely not a left fielder (often in the same game). The leader in left field innings pitched since then? Willie Calhoun with 1,282 innings or just over 142 games.
Maybe this running joke is about to expire. Evan Carter — who made his big league debut on September 8 of last year and hit .300/.417/.500 (.917 OPS) in the postseason — appears to be the Rangers' everyday guy alongside Leody Taveras and Adolis García in the Rangers' outfield on opening day.
But another prospect is causing a stir in the Rangers camp. Wyatt Langford, who was settled with the fourth pick in last year's draft, hit three home runs in four at-bats on Friday and Saturday. After a 1-10 start to camp, he is hitting .353 with an OPS of 1.332.
Keith Law ranked the 22-year-old Langford No. 6 on his top 100 prospect list. But according to a rival scout, that could be low. “It took two games for him to be on my Mount Rushmore of the best talents I've ever seen,” the scout told me, later clarifying that Langford is second, just behind Julio Rodríguez.
If there are problems with Carter, Taveras or García, Langford could step in and play left field. Or, with Mitch Garver leaving via free agency this winter, Langford could force his way into the conversation as the designated hitter by Opening Day.
Coach Bruce Bochy said of Langford after Saturday's game: “It's just a matter of time with him.”
It's also only a matter of time before the Rangers solve the left field conundrum. Luckily for her, it seems that now might be the time.
A sea change in MLB coaching
Britt Ghiroli takes an insightful look at a profound coaching change that has been underway in pro ball for nearly a decade. You may know it as “Old School vs. New School,” but honestly, implementing data-driven coaching isn’t all that new anymore.
Ghiroli cites the Orioles as a prime example of an organization that has implemented changes well and, surprisingly, the Pirates as one of the teams that hit bumps in the road. She points out that one of the biggest determinants of success is how well teams can completely forego a binary “either/or” stance and utilize both schools of thought.
“This is one of the more difficult parts of my job,” Orioles executive vice president and GM Mike Elias said in the article. “People with technology are at the top of their list and people with lived baseball experience are at the top. We value both, and trying to get the right chemistry across all employees is a very difficult, ongoing balance that we have been dealing with for almost 10 years now.”
Ghiroli delves into the history of independent facilities and labs like Driveline, Premier Pitching and Performance, and Tread Athletics, and how the industry has worked its way through the process of incorporating coaches from independent facilities into their programs (and occasionally), like the pipeline, at irregular intervals worked the other way around).
It's a fascinating read if you're interested in industry trends that aren't always obvious when watching the games.
Handshakes and high fives
It's overtime week here at The Athletic! Looks like Zack Wheeler got the memo; This morning it was announced that he and the Phillies have agreed to a three-year, $126 million contract. See what Tim Britton thinks about your team's chances of retaining its talent before free agency takes your favorite player away.
Fanatics have broken their silence on the new uniforms. In short, they say they are just following orders. Meanwhile, Nick Castellanos gave us the most accurate assessment of the situation we've heard from a player yet.
Speaking of which, players have some ideas on how to speed up the game without pushing the pitch clock down even further.
Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto weren't the only Japanese stars to make their Cactus League debuts recently. Shota Imanaga struck out five (and allowed a home run) in his debut, and he and the Cubs are working on refining their philosophy on how to use his fastball against big league hitters.
Ronald Acuña Jr. is getting his sore right knee checked Monday — the same knee that cost him the second half of the 2021 season when he tore his ACL — after an MRI revealed irritation around the meniscus.
Trea Turner made more errors (23) than anyone else last season. By working with infield coach Bobby Dickerson, he hopes to change that.
Can Ceddanne Rafaela play in midfield? The Red Sox certainly hope so.
If Lars Nootbaar's swing looks better, thank Nolan Arenado.
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(Top photo: Jerome Miron / USA Today)
