A year ago, NFL executives walked away from the scouting combine thinking the Chicago Bears were willing to trade the first pick in the draft. You were right. This year, NFL offices expect the Bears to use the top pick they acquired from the Carolina Panthers a year ago on USC quarterback Caleb Williams next week.
Reaching out to decision makers at this time of year will give you an overview of their expectations coming out of the combine. What they think could happen in early March is evolving as the draft approaches, in part as coaches become more involved in the process. But I find it useful to take a snapshot to create a baseline.
I've put together a rough top 10 based on conversations with six executives during and after the merger. Clear themes emerged for quarterbacks, offensive linemen and receivers, with some intrigue surrounding a QB prospect that teams haven't yet fully evaluated.
Last year, executives correctly predicted seven of the top 10 players. Bijan Robinson, Jalen Carter and Darnell Wright were the three players who landed in the actual top 10 without appearing in the March 2023 forecast.
Execs narrowly missed offensive lineman Peter Skoronski (Tennessee selected him 11th overall). They missed cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who went 17th overall to New England. And they made fun of quarterback Will Levis, who was selected 33rd overall – a reminder that QBs can fall when they fall, because only a subset of teams will consider one early in the year .
This year, the general theme was quarterbacks first, then offensive linemen, then wide receivers, with some overlap between those two end positions. Only a few defensive players made it into the projected top 10.
We do not predict potential trades below as there are too many possibilities. Finding a logical home for the top-ranked players based on today's order reflects the general mood at the moment.
Four players finished in the top 10 on all six ballots: Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and Joe Alt.
Five players appeared on five of six ballots: Dallas Turner, Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze, Olu Fashanu and Malik Nabers.
JC Latham appeared on four ballots. Jared Verses appeared on three. Brock Bowers appeared on two. Chop Robinson and Byron Murphy II each appeared on one.
The top 10 picks below were formed from a consensus of the six ballots. Nabers and Latham were not voted into the top 10 because there was no consensus on where they would finish, but they would be part of any consensus top 10 overall.
Most also assumed JJ McCarthy would be a top 10 pick, likely to a team that had been promoted, such as the Denver Broncos. But none of the six executives have selected him for any of the teams already in the top 10, at least not yet.
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1. Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Distribution of votes: Williams 6
All six executives had the Bears select Williams and trade incumbent starter Justin Fields. Everyone supported Chicago taking this route.
“I would evaluate the other quarterbacks like crazy right now and say, 'What if I went down to two or three and got a historic return?'” one of the executives said. “Would I still get a franchise quarterback?”
The biggest concern raised about Williams was his tendency to hold the ball longer than would be ideal for a timing-based offense. In a worst-case scenario, this could lead to more third-and-long situations and rob an offense of its continuity. But executives felt Chicago shouldn't hesitate to make Williams their first pick.
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2. Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Distribution of votes: Daniels 5, May 1st
Daniels traveled to Washington for five of six executives at this point. One of the five initially had Maye, but then switched to Daniels a few days later.
“I think people have issues with Maye’s mechanics,” this manager said.
The only holdout for Maye in the slot said he heard Commanders general manager Adam Peters was “very excited” about Maye. The fit could be appealing. Maye and incumbent Commanders starter Sam Howell were teammates at North Carolina. Howell could open the 2024 season as a starter if the Commanders wanted to give Maye time to acclimate.
Another manager left open the possibility that Michigan's McCarthy could compete with Daniels and Maye for that spot.
“If he throws well,” this manager said of McCarthy, “he's competing for second place.” However, I don't think he'll overtake them.”
Randy Mueller of The Athletic predicted months ago that McCarthy could move into the top five as teams, and especially coaches, learned more about him before it was announced whether McCarthy would enter the draft. Mueller, a three-time GM and one-time NFL Executive of the Year, also believes analysts are overvaluing Maye because of his prototypical size and that some teams won't value Maye as highly.
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“I think the whole McCarthy-Maye quarterback thing has yet to play out,” one former GM said. “The other two are firmer in my opinion.”
For now, all six executives expect Maye to be selected second or third.
“Could you say McCarthy could finish in the top five? “Yeah,” the former GM said, “because everyone had put him on hold this fall.” And then Michigan didn't focus on the quarterback like Oregon or Washington did, so he wasn't going to put up monster numbers. But then when you look at the talent and the makeup, he looks pretty good to people.”
Distribution of votes: May 5, Daniel 1
Every manager had the Patriots select a quarterback in the first round. The choice fell on Maye rather than anyone thinking New England was particularly into him.
“I think they'd probably rather have Jayden Daniels, but I'll put Maye there,” one executive said.
A GM whose team already has a franchise quarterback thought McCarthy would have “great reach” at the position, but acknowledged New England could make a bold selection with Eliot Wolf running the draft room .
“I think they’re going to quarterback,” this GM said. “Are you going to shoot JJ? Eliot won't be afraid of it if he believes in the player. Just look at what his father did.”
Ron Wolf acquired Brett Favre from the Atlanta Falcons three decades ago.
“Ron Wolf's son will go with the biggest, fastest, most talented athlete in most cases,” another executive said.
Distribution of votes: Joe Alt 2, Dallas Turner 2, Marvin Harrison Jr. 2
There was no consensus on Arizona in this slot. I gave Turner to the Cardinals because their defense desperately needs reinforcements.
“Turner is clearly in the top 10 now,” one executive said, pointing to the Alabama product’s 4.46 in the 40-yard dash.
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We still could have sent Harrison or Alt to the Cardinals.
“I think they have to pass rush if they stay there,” one of the executives said. “It could be Dallas Turner. Verses might be a safer choice. I think they will aim for relegation. There's enough rush, even a Chop Robinson, to get him deeper. Seven (Titans) and six (Giants) could trade for a tackle.”
Trading down from here makes perfect sense, perhaps regardless of how the top three picks perform.
“I would expect them to switch the election,” one of the executives said. “Look at how they moved back last year and then the fact that this will be an attractive place because it allows someone to come in from afar to get the player they want.”
This manager envisioned one of the quarterback-needy teams jumping into that spot for McCarthy or Maye. The Cardinals have already signed Kyler Murray at quarterback. A return to, say, No. 12 in a trade with Denver could still produce the eighth-best non-quarterback in the draft for a team already at the position.
“This may be the perfect distance for Arizona to come back and stock up on picks, including a first-rounder next year, and there are still players there who will have the same opportunities to make a significant impact,” the said Managing Director. “You could get the No. 1 corner, the No. 2 edge player, still a good tackler, still a good receiver.”
Arizona has been a popular destination for Harrison in mock drafts. While four of the six executives projected Harrison as the first receiver selected, Nabers and Odunze also received votes, and Harrison wasn't necessarily considered the best by a wide margin.
“I think they're going to take Marvin Harrison because I think he's the most talented, solid, versatile guy,” another manager said. “Let me put it this way: I think he is the best player available at this point in time. If you don't think he's better than Odunze or Nabers, then maybe go with Alt or Dallas Turner. But they need to continue to give their quarterback some players, and I think Marvin Harrison will check every box and is more talented.”
Dallas Turner caused a stir in Indianapolis with excellent test results. (Stacy Rere/Getty Images)
Distribution of votes: Alt 2, Fashanu 2, Turner 1, Nabers 1
The first four executives interviewed sent an offensive lineman to the Chargers, assuming the choice would make symbolic sense for the team's old-school coach, Jim Harbaugh. But there was also strong resistance to this idea, which we'll get to in a moment.
“Joe Alt might be the safest, most complete tackle,” one manager said. “You have a left tackle. They could play him at right tackle. You want to give the quarterback a run game and then protect him for the first time in his career.”
Solid thinking, but is it a solid value?
“That’s one thing I just don’t understand,” another manager said. “I just don’t get it when you make a guy play right tackle. Old is clean and I love old, but when it comes to pass rushers, there is a big difference in the value of the position for me. We can find the right tackle.”
This manager selected Turner for the Chargers. Another initially leaned toward the offensive line but thought Nabers would have the bigger impact.
“To get Herbert a guy like Nabers, they would set off LA fireworks,” he said.
6. New York Giants: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Distribution of votes: Harrison 2, Nabers 1, Odunze 1, Latham 1, Alt 1
Four of the six executives had the Giants select a receiver, but there was no firm belief about which receiver would be the choice, in part because the top three wideouts could play in almost any order.
A manager who sent Harrison to the Cardinals at No. 4 chose Odunze to the Giants.
“Nabers is faster, while Odunze has more possession, is tall, strong and physical,” said this manager. “They could go with Odunze just because they took the speed guy from Tennessee (Jalin Hyatt) last year and that would be a good addition.”
The Giants need help on their offensive line, but they have invested high draft choices in the position recently. The manager who sent Latham to the Giants noted that the team seems to like SEC players. How about a quarterback?
“If you're the Giants and JJ McCarthy is there, I think you have to take him,” one executive said. “That doesn’t mean they will. They desperately need an offensive line. Let's just give them Alt. I could imagine them saying, 'If Jones doesn't work out this year, we'll take another top-10 pick next year and then worry about it.'”
Distribution of votes: Fashanu 2, Latham 1, Alt 1, Nabers 1, verse 1
Four of the six executives sent an offensive lineman to the Titans.
“They didn’t replace Taylor Lewan, and that’s what they need to do,” one of the executives said. “The guy they took last year (Skoronski) was really a guard. They need a left tackle.”
The only manager to send a defensive player to the Titans did so based on what he knew about Tennessee GM Ran Carthon.
“I think they go with the best pass rusher,” this manager said. “Ran would probably rely on his 49er days and probably take verses. Personally, I haven’t studied Verse and Turner enough to have a clear opinion, but that’s my gut feeling based on what I’ve seen.”
8. Atlanta Falcons: Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State
Distribution of votes: Verse 2, Turner 2, Robinson 1, Latham 1
Executives generally assumed the Falcons would address their quarterback situation in free agency or through a trade, although one GM offered another option.
“The most likely scenario is that they trade for 1 and get Caleb Williams or trade for Fields,” this GM said.
Adding young pass rush help to a veteran defense wouldn't be all that exciting. It might be the best option.
“You can’t take another offensive player, can you?” said one of the executives. “I don’t necessarily see a quarterback because I think they’re going to sign Russell Wilson. They could go to the corner, but I’ll give them a pass rusher.”
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Another manager cautioned against ruling out a receiver, noting that the Falcons could still use help at the position. But he thought a defense was more likely.
9. Chicago Bears: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Distribution of votes: Odunze 3, Nabers 1, Harrison 1, Byron Murphy II 1
Odunze was the highest-rated receiver in this scenario and a clear choice for a team that was targeting their franchise quarterback at the top of the draft. The Bears could also find a defensive player for their defensive-minded coach, Matt Eberflus, as they figure Williams would get more out of their receivers, led by DJ Moore.
“Pairing Caleb with a top receiver, both young, both with a lot of time on their hands, yeah, it would be really hard not to do that,” one executive said.
10. New York Jets: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Distribution of votes: Bowers 2, Nabers 1, Odunze 1, Fashanu 1, Latham 1
None of the executives thought selecting a tight end in that slot would be a sensible move.
“If you're ranked in the top 10 and you need help on offense and you're playing tight end, that's misconduct,” said the manager who sent Fashanu to the Jets. “You can’t do that. This is just ridiculous.”
Another manager said the Jets would have to select a tackle in that slot or trade back and select one. But he didn't necessarily think the Jets would do that.
“It's hard not to be in an important position in the top 10, but the Jets are in a unique position because they have to win this year or they won't have jobs,” this executive said. “You get weapons for Aaron Rodgers and he will design them for you. They targeted and missed so many offensive linemen. I would think they would go on offense in free agency.”
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(Top photos of Drake Maye (left) and Jayden Daniels: Grant Halverson, Jonathan Bachman / Getty Images)
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