The 5 most important decisions facing the NCAA Men’s Tournament Selection Committee – Yahoo Sports
Sometime before 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, the NCAA tournament selection committee will send CBS a completed clip to unveil on its selection show.
Here’s a look at the key decisions the committee needs to make until then:
1. Who should get the final #1 seed?
While three of the NCAA tournament’s four No. 1 seedlings would almost certainly go to Kansas, Alabama and Houston in any order, it wasn’t clear until late Saturday night who would join that trio on the top seeding list.
It wasn’t until UCLA’s potentially game-winning 3-pointer rattled off the rim that Purdue could feel good about his chances. The Bruins had a strong case for the last seeded No. 1 until they fell two points short in a tense, hard-fought Pac-12 title game against Arizona.
Purdue
28-5, 16-5 Big Ten | Net: 5 | KenPom: 6 | Q1: 10-4 | Q2: 8-1 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0
Marquee Wins: Marquette, Gonzaga, Duke, MSU (2), Illinois, West Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin
Casualties: Indiana (2), in Maryland, Northwest, Rutgers
Purdue played like the best team in the country for months as they defeated Marquette, destroyed Duke and Gonzaga, and rolled over their opponents in January’s Big Ten. Then February came, and with it some worrying red flags, most notably the Boilermakers’ backcourt in freshman struggling to deflect jump shots or attending to basketball against teams with tall, athletic fullbacks.
Credit Purdue for rebounding from a worrying stretch of four losses in six games. The Boilermakers won four straight games in the Big Ten title game against Penn State on Sunday.
UCLA
29-5, 18-2 Pac-12 | Net: 4| KenPom: 2 | Q1: 8-5 | Q2: 9-0 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0
Marquee wins: Arizona, in Maryland, Kentucky, USC, Arizona State (2), Oregon (3)
Losses: Arizona (2), Baylor, Illinois, at USC
Fueled by the nation’s most stifling defense, UCLA won a mediocre Pac-12 by four games over second-placed Arizona and USC. The undermanned Bruins then overcame injuries to two of their four key players to come close to winning the Pac-12 tournament, falling to Arizona 61-59.
The story goes on
UCLA’s marquee win streak isn’t as top-heavy as Purdue’s, but the Bruins defeated Kentucky on a neutral court and gave Maryland their only home loss of the season by as many as 27 points. Mick Cronin’s high-ranking team are also unbeaten all season at the Pauley Pavilion and unbeaten outside of Quadrant 1.
Texas
26-8, 12-6 Great 12 | Net: 9| KenPom: 7 | Q1: 14-8 | Q2: 4-0 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0
Tent wins: Kansas (2), Gonzaga, Creighton, Baylor, TCU (2), at Kansas State, Iowa State, West Virginia (2)
Losses: in Kansas, Tennessee, Baylor, TCU, Iowa State, Illinois, Kansas State, Texas Tech
Then there’s Texas, which latched onto the #1 seed discussion by beating Kansas on the final day of the regular season in Austin and then repeating the feat eight days later in the Big 12 title game. The Longhorns have 14 wins in the first quadrant this season, behind only Kansas.
What makes Texas a long shot to overtake both Purdue and UCLA is its eight losses, one more than any previous No. 1 seed had in selection Sunday. However, none of those losses are outside of Quadrant 1. Only one, at Texas Tech, came against a non-NCAA tournament team.
With Purdue advancing to the Big Ten title game on Saturday afternoon and UCLA coming up a shot short against Arizona on Saturday night, it would be an easy surprise if the Boilermakers didn’t claim the final No. 1 seed. UCLA and Texas are confident they’re no worse than No. 2.
Texas Longhorns guard Marcus Carr drives to the basket against Kansas Jayhawks guard Joseph Yesufu on Saturday. (Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
2. Has Kansas cost themselves the No. 1 spot overall?
Instead of establishing itself as the No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament Saturday night, Kansas may have left the door open for another contender.
It all depends on which element the committee values the most: your metrics? Or who did you hit?
Despite being throttled by Texas in the Big 12 title game on Saturday night, Kansas still go into Selection Sunday with 17 Quadrant 1 wins this season, three more than any other team in the nation. The Jayhawks (27-7) defeated Duke, Indiana and Kentucky in non-league games to win the regular-season overall title in the toughest conference in the country.
Seven losses is unusually high for a potential No. 1 overall pick, but the teams that beat Kansas are not only bans to reach the NCAA tournament, but are also expected to earn the top-six seeds. The only other thing about the Jayhawks’ resume is that the metrics don’t love them. They are 6th in the NCAA NET rankings, #9 in KenPom and 12th in Bart Torvik’s T rankings.
In contrast, Houston is No. 1 on all key metrics coming up in Sunday’s matchup against Memphis in the American Athletic Conference title game. The Cougars (31-2) also have the fewest losses of any team in the nation, although one of those is an ugly home loss in the 3rd quadrant to the mediocre Temple.
While Houston doesn’t have league wins over Virginia, Saint Mary’s, Oregon and Oral Roberts, the Cougars have just six Quadrant 1 wins all season. The only other NCAA tournament caliber team in the US is Memphis, which swept Houston during the regular season.
The other potential No. 1 overall team is Alabama, which held that spot when the committee unveiled its bracket preview three weeks ago. Despite receiving unwanted attention from the Brandon Miller scandal, the Crimson Tide have lost only once since then, falling in their regular-season finale at Texas A&M.
Alabama enters a rematch with Texas A&M in the title game of Sunday’s SEC tournament and is 28-5 overall with 11 wins in the 1st quadrant, no losses outside the top quadrant and a top-3 finish in both the NET and KenPom. The Crimson Tide claimed a head-to-head victory in Houston. A 24-point loss at sub-.500 Oklahoma is the only notable blemish on her resume.
So, will Kansas secure first place overall and a geographic-friendly path through the Kansas City Regional? The Jayhawks remain the favorite in my eyes due to their boatload of marquee wins, but Alabama and Houston both have arguments, too.
3. Should key injuries affect the top teams’ seedings?
During an appearance on CBS Saturday afternoon, NCAA senior vice president of basketball Dan Gavitt popped a question about how key injuries could affect a team’s seeding.
Gavitt said committee members “are in regular contact with the schools and the conferences to obtain as much accurate and up-to-date information as possible.”
“They take player availability into account,” Gavitt said, “but they won’t overreact, especially if there isn’t a large group of games to consider when a team is playing without those players.” It is not the committee’s job to project how a team will perform without one or more players.”
That the committee isn’t overreacting would be welcome news for a handful of elite teams who have lost hitters to injuries in recent weeks.
UCLA lost elite fullback Jaylen Clark to a season-ending hamstring injury eight days ago and esteemed shot blocker Adem Bona to a shoulder injury on Friday night. Tennessee lost starting point guard and top playmaker Zakai Zeigler to a cruciate ligament tear earlier this month. Texas played the entire Big 12 tournament without Timmy Allen, the third-best scorer, and Kansas lost Kevin McCullar to back spasms in the Big 12 semifinals. Houston watched star guard Marcus Sasser suffer an apparent groin injury in the American semifinals.
While leaders Cincinnati were famously demoted to second seeding in 2000 after national player of the year Kenyon Martin tore his cruciate ligament, subsequent selection committees have been extremely cautious about penalizing teams with injured players. Even so, coaches are reluctant to disclose the extent of key injuries ahead of Selection Sunday — particularly coaches who were part of those 2,000 Cincinnati employees.
When asked by reporters about Bona’s status Friday night, UCLA coach Mick Cronin replied with a smile, “Think I’d tell you?”
Duke head coach Jon Scheyer holds up the net after the Blue Devils won the ACC Championship on Saturday. (Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports)
4. Will the committee reward Duke and other conference tournament climbers?
How high in the bracket can Duke climb after his run to the ACC tournament title? That depends on how the committee responds to criticism it received last year for appearing to be seeding too early and not giving enough weight to conference tournament performance.
Duke was already up to a predicted number 6 or 7 by the time he entered the ACC tournament. The rising Blue Devils had won 9 of their 11 games – and one of those two losses was the game in Virginia where Kyle Filipowski was deprived of a chance to win the game at the free-throw line.
At the ACC tournament, Duke confirmed it was peaking at the right time, edging out three consecutive tournament-caliber NCAA teams on consecutive nights. The Blue Devils defeated Pittsburgh and fended off Miami before avenging their regular-season loss to Virginia with a 59-49 win in Saturday night’s title game.
Where is Duke? With a 26-8 record, predictions hovering around No. 20 and a résumé to rival that of planned No. 5 seeds like Texas A&M, San Diego State, Saint Mary’s and Miami. The Blue Devils beat Xavier and Iowa in non-league games, finished in first place in a game with poor ACC, and then played some of their best basketball games in winning their conference tournament.
If the selection committee puts more emphasis on the results of the weekend conference tournaments this year, Duke has an excellent chance of becoming a dangerous No. 5, maybe even the very last No. 4. If the seed performed on Thursday and Friday remains largely unchanged, Then expect the Blue Devils to be an undermanned No. 6.
Duke isn’t the only team hoping their conference tournament performance will dramatically improve their seeding. SEC finalist Texas A&M is hoping for a similar jump to No. 5, while surprise Big Ten finalist Penn State will look to go from the bubble to an 8-9 game.
5. Is Vanderbilt in or out after his late season surge?
When Vanderbilt lost by 57 points in Alabama on Jan. 31, Jerry Stackhouse tore into his struggling team. He said he would make roster changes if the 10-12 Commodores didn’t start showing more effort and selflessness.
Vanderbilt responded by winning 10 of their last 12 games, including two wins over Kentucky and wins over Mississippi State, Auburn and Tennessee. The Commodores (20-14) are the 30th best team in the country as of February 1, according to Bart Torvik’s T-Rankings.
If the committee took the 68 teams playing the best basketball on Selection Sunday, Vanderbilt would be banned. The problem is that the committee grades all work, which means the Commodores’ early home losses to Grambling and Southern Miss will work against them, as will their No. 79 NET ranking and No. 80 KenPom ranking.
Vanderbilt’s 10-11 record in Quadrant 1-2 games compares favorably to other bubble teams, especially considering that seven of those wins come against opponents likely to make the NCAA tournament. The trio of Commodores from quadrants 3 and 4, on the other hand, is the largest of all bubble teams alongside Rutgers.
Unless the committee disqualifies Vanderbilt for his terrible advanced metrics, Vanderbilt will have an outside shot at a spot in the First Four. But anyone who thinks the Commodores’ strong finish is definitely enough needs to get acquainted with 2022 Texas A&M.