1 in 4 An estimated 12% of world trade passes through the Red Sea each year Photo: Alamy via BBC An estimated 12% of world trade passes through the Red Sea each year Photo: Alamy via BBC
It is possible to accurately see the location hit by the drone. Just look out for the frightening black spots on the ship's white paint.
On January 17, the American cargo ship MV Genco Picardy was one of the latest victims of Houthi attacks on merchant vessels sailing through the Red Sea.
Since November, one of the world's busiest sea routes has undoubtedly also been the most dangerous.
Originally from Yemen, the Houthis an Iranbacked Shiite Islamic group have attacked ships passing through the Bab alMandab Strait, a 20milewide canal that separates northeast Africa from Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula. They say they are targeting ships linked to Israel in retaliation for the war in Gaza, but many of the ships targeted have no ties to Israel.
The group has used everything from heavily armed hijackers to missiles and drones.
Understand who the Houthi rebels are
The scenario is worrying governments and the shipping industry.
In recent days, a tanker attacked by the Houthis lay ablaze for hours in the Gulf of Aden after being hit by a missile fired by the Houthis.
According to Michelle Wiese Bockmann, chief analyst at global shipping specialist Lloyd's List Intelligence, the situation is unenviable. On a single day in January, it counted at least 300 ships entering the Red Sea's most dangerous strait.
“Each of these 300 ships has 15 to 25 people on board,” she says. “It’s like a bus transporting passengers straight to a war zone. They (the crew) have no say in whether they should do this.”
2 of 4 A drone attacked the MV Genco Picardy in January while the ship was en route from the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden Photo: UPI/Alamy Live News via BBC A drone attacked the MV Genco Picardy in January while the Ship was traveling from the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden Photo: UPI/Alamy Live News via BBC
It is estimated that 12% of world trade passes through the Red Sea each year. The value represents more than $1 trillion (around R$4.93 trillion). But many shipping companies are already avoiding the region.
Hundreds of huge container ships, some over 300 meters long, now prefer to take a longer detour on their journey from Asia to Europe and bypass the African continent instead of first heading for the Red Sea and then the Suez Canal.
But rerouting these large ships is no easy task. The associated logistics effort is usually enormous and timeconsuming.
In addition, the severe drought at the Panama Canal and the war in Ukraine, which has led to a decline in grain shipments through the Black Sea, are also choking global supply chains.
There is an urgent need to adapt and reorient, even if this entails serious financial and environmental consequences.
In November 2023, the Houthis hijacked a ship carrying cars and released a video of the incident to the world.
His explosive weapons also hit container ships and general cargo ships and narrowly missed a Russian oil tanker that was apparently accidentally attacked.
In addition to the risks to the physical integrity of those involved, dealing with this turmoil means higher insurance premiums, possible legal issues and unforeseeable delays.
The cargo carried by these ships can be worth millions or even hundreds of millions of dollars. Therefore, it is not surprising that in many cases shipping companies have decided to send their ships to other locations.
Bypassing the Red Sea and the long route around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa increases the travel time by around 6,500 km and the sailing time by 10 to 12 days.
The route increases fuel consumption estimates put it at $1 million (around R$4.93 million) more in addition to the possible search for alternative ports of call, adjustments to supply schedules and increases in other costs. But many companies prefer this alternative to the risk of missile and hijacker attacks.
3 of 4 Alternative transport route bypassing the Red Sea Photo: BBC Alternative transport route bypassing the Red Sea Photo: BBC
Container shipping lines are struggling to lease enough ships for the longer voyages now necessary to avoid the Red Sea. And there are fears the crisis could have farreaching economic impacts, with commodity prices rising and deliveries of highvalue products delayed for weeks or perhaps even longer.
Wiese Bockmann says the Houthis are attacking more and more indiscriminately. It reflects comments from US National Security Council officials.
Someone who has also been following the crisis's development is economist Anna Nagurney of the University of Massachusetts at Amherst in the United States.
Even before the attacks, there were significant bottlenecks in global trade, including the drought that reduced flow between the Pacific and Atlantic through the Panama Canal.
“A lot of ships [da China] They had rerouted their routes to avoid using the Panama Canal, but they started using the Suez Canal,” she says. “Now everything is upside down.”
Rerouting the route around the Cape of Good Hope sounds like an extreme decision, but shipping companies have done this before for a variety of reasons.
In the current case, according to Nagurney, there are actually no alternatives given the immense volumes of freight.
A spokesman for Maersk one of the world's largest shipping companies insists there are limits on the amount of cargo that can be transferred from sea to air and rail transport. This is due to the enormous volume of cargo that ships can carry.
But even this option is not without risk due to the sometimes bad weather conditions that ships are exposed to around the southern tip of Africa, says Nagurney.
4 out of 4 Every year, trillions of dollars' worth of goods are transported around the world on cargo ships Photo: Alamy via BBC Every year, trillions of dollars' worth of goods are transported around the world on cargo ships Photo: Alamy via BBC
Transportation and logistics companies have extensive experience in getting cargo where it needs to go, one way or another. And global supply chains are actually very resilient, says Wiese Bockmann.
She emphasizes that the current crisis on the Red Sea should not be viewed as an “Armageddon” for the shipping industry.
A case in point is the way Ukrainians have adapted to the Russian Navy's threat to their bulk carriers in the Black Sea.
Nagurney and his colleagues examined the extraordinary response to this problem, which led Ukraine to move millions of tons of grain through alternative corridors up the Danube or overland to Romanian seaports, which are currently safer for ships than Ukrainian ports.
But that doesn't mean that rerouting huge cargo ships wouldn't have serious consequences. There are already reports of cost increases that are expected to be passed on to consumers.
However, Imperial College London supply chain management professor Eddie Anderson points out that the cost of shipping containers is unlikely to reach the extraordinary levels seen at the height of the Covid19 pandemic.
High transport costs are certainly not an obstacle for manufacturers. According to reports, they currently prefer to transport their products and components by air to avoid the risk of delays in their supply chains.
A key question is how long the crisis in the Red Sea will last. Experts and shipping companies believe it could take months.
Anderson agrees: “We’re certainly talking months. I can’t imagine it’s years, but who knows?”
It is also necessary to think about the impact on the environment. A sudden increase in maritime traffic can lead to significant changes in underwater noise, with consequences for local populations of fish and marine mammals.
Additionally, ships that travel thousands of miles more than planned use far more fuel and emit far more carbon into the atmosphere to carry the same load.
In 2023, the International Maritime Organization set a goal of zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. One of these is reducing emissions by at least 20% by 2030.
But “if this continues, shipping will not be able to achieve emissions reductions this year,” said transport economist Rico Luman of the banking and financial services company ING.
It suggests that tankers are traveling significantly greater distances than before the war in Ukraine, as many shipping routes have been redesigned due to sanctions imposed on Russia. As a result, certain ship types are already emitting more per unit of cargo than before.
Clearly, the Houthis' attack on global trade will not destroy supply chains. But it poses a serious threat, particularly to sailors whose lives remain in danger.