Containers in the port of Buenaventura (Colombia) Jair F. Coll (Bloomberg)

The global economy shows little sign of improvement. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has updated its forecasts, and while the headline of its report is still scary (inflation hits highs in a low-growth context), its content leaves some good news. Central bank rate hikes are starting to have an effect, so inflation has peaked and is starting to slow down. And for the first time in more than a year, the fund dared to raise its growth forecast for the global economy to 2.9%, even if it is only two-tenths. The organisation’s director of analysis and economic adviser, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, dares to speak of a “tipping point”.

After three years of sustained shocks (including the pandemic, rising energy prices and the war in Ukraine), it is still too early to claim victory. In fact, the IMF emphasizes that the growth forecast for 2023 is weaker than the 3.4% estimated for last year and that downside risks prevail. But behind this cautious message, the fund’s economists also emphasize that things have improved since October, when they published their earlier forecasts.

“The downside risks have diminished since the October 2022 World Economic Outlook report was published. Upside risks include a stronger boost from pent-up demand in many economies or a faster fall in inflation,” he said of the update released now.

Gourinchas stresses that “the fight against inflation is bearing fruit, but central banks must continue their efforts”. He says the global economy will slow this year before picking up to 3.1% next year. Growth will remain weak historically as the fight against inflation and the war in Ukraine weigh on activity, but there is room for hope: “Despite these headwinds, the outlook is less gloomy than our October forecasts and could mark a turning point , when growth has bottomed out and inflation is falling,” he says.

The soft landing hypothesis is gaining traction, meaning that central banks will be able to control inflation without triggering a recession. The IMF is raising the growth forecast for the USA by 0.4 points to 1.4% and, above all, no longer sees a decline in gross domestic product in Germany and Italy as the central scenario, as it did in October. The German forecast improves by 0.4 points to 0.1% and the Italian one by 0.8 points to 0.6%. Although the economic slowdown seems inevitable, the specter of stagflation in the eurozone is fading thanks to greater resilience to the energy crisis, a mild winter and determined fiscal stimulus.

The sick in Europe becomes the United Kingdom, which has suffered a fall of 0.9 points and for which the organization led by Kristalina Georgieva now expects a fall in GDP of 0.6%. The recession threatens the government of Rishi Sunak.

No news for Spain

The report contains no news on Spain, after the fund presented its forecasts in its annual report on the country two weeks ago. In fact, these projections are already a bit out of date, as the IMF is forecasting 5.2% growth for 2022, while the National Institute of Statistics has already put it at 5.5%. For 2023, the fund lowered its growth forecast for Spain by a tenth to 1.1%, but after the good data from the fourth quarter, the forecast is likely to be a bit outdated, although nothing seems to be able to prevent a slowdown in growth in the full election year .

The improvements also affect most emerging markets, led by China, which is forecast to grow by 5.2%, nine tenths more than the IMF forecast in October. “The sudden reopening of China paves the way for a rapid recovery in activity,” Gourinchas said. India will grow even faster, 6.2%.

Forecasts for 2023 are also improving in the two main Latin American economies: two tenths for Brazil to 1.2% and half a point for Mexico to 1.7%. “Global financial conditions have improved as inflationary pressures begin to ease. This, coupled with the dollar’s weakening since its November peak, has provided some relief to emerging and developing markets,” explains the head of analysis.

Among the downside risks, the fund highlights a worsening of the Covid-19 pandemic in China, a possible escalation of the war in Ukraine, negative inflation surprises forcing central banks to adopt more restrictive monetary policies, a tightening of financial conditions and possible episodes of market instability and geopolitical fragmentation.

The World Economic Outlook update just released does not include inflation forecasts by country, but the fund expects inflation to be lower in 84% of economies in 2023 than in 2022. World inflation is projected to rise from an annual average of 8 .8% last year to 6.6% this year and 4.3% next year.

However, persistent inflation is one of the risks the fund insists on. In cases where price pressures remain too high, he urges central banks to raise real interest rates above the neutral rate (which neither stimulates nor hinders the economy) and leave them there until core inflation sustains. “Loosening too early could undo all previous achievements,” says Gourinchas.

The fund’s economist concludes with an upbeat but cautious message: “This time the global economic outlook has not deteriorated. That’s good news, but not enough. The road to a full recovery with sustained growth, stable prices and progress for all has only just begun.”

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A gym teacher has listed the nine foods she eats every day for good health and a lean, toned body — and the motto she swears by for her family when it comes to nutrition.

Belinda Norton, 45, of the Gold Coast, said she’s a fan of foods that “grow in the earth and the sea,” like salmon, carrots, brown rice and broccoli.

She’s taking that approach to her kids, too — making sure their breakfast, lunch, and dinner is filled with “real whole foods” that promote good health.

A gym teacher has listed the nine foods she eats every day for good health and a lean, toned physique — and the motto she swears by for her family when it comes to nutrition (Belinda Norton pictured).

Belinda Norton, 45, of the Gold Coast, is a fan of foods “grown in the land and the sea” like salmon, carrots, brown rice and broccoli (the foods she eats daily are pictured).

“Did you know that soil grown foods and foods from seawater have higher mineral content than any other food source?” Belinda posted on Instagram.

The nine foods you need to eat every day

1. Fish

2. Whole carrots

3. Homemade granola

4. Oranges

5. Avocados

6. Vegetables and salad

7. Broccoli

8. Brown Rice

9. Quinoa

“I eat food from the earth and the sea every day.”

The nine foods to include in your diet are fish, whole carrots, homemade granola, oranges, avocados, greens, lettuce, broccoli, brown rice, and quinoa.

Belinda also eats a raw carrot and two cucumbers daily.

When she eats these, she does not peel or cut them, but washes them and eats them whole.

“Whole, organic, earth-grown foods provide our bodies with the nutrients and minerals that no other product can provide,” Belinda said.

“They’re inexpensive, encourage chewing and are perfectly portioned to nourish and keep you energized.”

Belinda added that the fiber in carrots helps keep blood sugar levels under control, while eating cucumbers keeps the body hydrated and leads to health benefits including “weight loss, balanced hydration, even digestion, and lower blood sugar levels.”

The gym teacher also shared what she calls the “magic eraser” she swears by when she’s feeling sluggish, saying it “speeds up the body, ignites those blood cells and makes them spin excitedly.” .

The gym teacher shared what she calls the “magic eraser” she swears by when she’s feeling sluggish.

The 45-year-old said that instead of “slowing down and resting” when you’re feeling tired, you should “speed up the body, ignite those blood cells and have them whirl through your body with excitement”.

“The lazy eraser answer is the opposite of quiet,” Belinda said. “Accelerate the body and the sluggish feeling will go away.”

Belinda said she will try to do some form of cardio every day, whether it’s a walk on the beach, swimming or reps.

She recommends incorporating “sprints, speed cycle reps, and jump squats” into your workouts and setting timers to help you reach your goals and reach greater heights.

Previously, Belinda (pictured) shared why her biggest secret is to “train and eat like a girl,” as she said women have a very different biological makeup than men

Previously, Belinda shared why her number one secret is to “train and eat like a girl.”

“We have a very different biology than men, so our bodies respond differently to training and racing,” Belinda wrote.

“When we focus on loving and caring for our biological female body, we have a higher chance of finding a successful routine for overall well-being.”

Belinda explained that one of the key differences between training as a man and training as a woman is that women are “born endurance athletes who can withstand a higher pain threshold.”

Belinda recommends recognizing the female menstrual cycle when training and training based on it.

For example, you might feel stronger and able to lift heavier or run longer when you’re menstruating, but in the days leading up to your period you might want to do a more gentle exercise like yoga.

“Weight training always improves your health mobility [as a woman]She said.

‘Add 5-7kg hand weights to Speed ​​Circuit Sets to improve your overall muscular strength and flexibility.’

Belinda (pictured) recommends recognizing the female menstrual cycle when exercising and doing workouts based on it

When it comes to diet, Belinda said the most important thing as a woman is that you limit the sugars you include in your daily diet.

While you might think you’re not eating a lot of sugar, in my experience, women around the world don’t pay attention to the hidden sugars in their food and drinks, and this often leads to them gaining weight as they age.

“The strongest thing for me is alcohol,” Belinda said.

“Especially my love for champagne. I try to only drink one night a week, either Friday or Saturday. A glass at an event counts and pays off.”

The 45-year-old said that when she drinks more, not only does it dramatically affect her sleep, mood and bodily functions, but she also starts to “be focused” and get a “little sagging stomach.”

“As we get older, our bodies respond differently to past sugar use, and sugar use in particular,” Belinda said.

“The older we get, the less muscle mass we retain. Over time, our BMR [basal metabolic rate] Drops, which means we burn fewer calories at rest.

“Not only does sugar create major ups and downs in mood and energy, it can also disrupt one of the most powerful hormones in the body: insulin.”

A surge in insulin leads to the production of testosterone, she said, which is then converted to estrogen and fat tissue in the abdomen.

The best way to avoid this, she added, is to make sure you’re eating and drinking clean 80 percent of the time.

Belinda’s five tricks to “eat and train like a girl”

1. Quality over quantity: Focus on 60 focused minutes of moving your body properly and with purpose.

2. Integrate Weights: A 5-7 kg hand weight speed circuit improves your overall muscle strength and flexibility

3. Train with alignment in mind: Focus on how the muscles in your body are moving to get results. You need to think especially about your hips and lower back if you are a woman due to pregnancy and menopause. Because of this, yoga is key to ensuring alignment and limiting injury.

4. Focus on yourself: Avoid a “crazy competitive mindset” and think about your own body and your fitness and health journey.

5. Eat quality small meals often: Instead of eating big, high-energy, dehydrating meals, Belinda recommends that you build plenty of energy throughout the day and eat smaller, healthy meals to avoid a slump. Make sure you eat real whole foods whenever possible.

Source: Belinda Norton

Connecticut woman fears she’ll be ruined after opening a new breakfast cafe called WOKE that’s upset locals – but insists the name is just a clue to getting out of bed

• Carmen Quiroga has been scrutinized for naming her breakfast cafe, Woke
• Some locals assumed the restaurant was named after the political term
• Quiroga recently opened the cafe and feared it would spoil their business

By Vanessa Serna

Published: 01:17 GMT, 31 Jan 2023 | Updated: 01:28 GMT, 31 January 2023

A restaurant owner fears her new business will suffer after receiving backlash for naming new breakfast spot Woke.

Carmen Quiroga opened her tiny breakfast shack in Coventry earlier this month expecting to sell oodles of crepes, eggs and bacon – but was met with controversy instead.

Coventry residents assumed the local cafe was named after the political term ‘awakened’, which originally meant being aware of prejudice and injustice but is now often used to explain progressive behavior that people see as feel performative and extreme.

But Quirgo says that’s not true and that the name is just a nod to people who start their day looking at facilities like their breakfast.

Quiroga fears nasty Facebook posts about her, and without a fair chance the restaurant would immediately ruin the business.

“They don’t give me the opportunity to taste my food and my work,” Quiroga told WTNH.

Carmen Quiroga has been scrutinized for naming her breakfast cafe, Woke. Some locals assumed the restaurant was named after the political term often used to explain progressive behavior that people perceive as performative and extreme

Quiroga recently opened the cafe and feared it would spoil their business

Quiroga saw the gruesome comments on a private city Facebook page. According to the news outlet, several people were quick to sidestep the true meaning behind the “wake up and have a coffee” name.

She claimed she had no idea what the political definition of “awakened” meant.

The cafe owner left her in tears as she read the comments, which have since been discouraged on the site.

“Just a word of warning, any further ridiculous comments about the name of the new breakfast spot in town will be deleted,” the site admin wrote.

Several people rushed to Woke’s Facebook page to support Quiroga’s new business after hearing the news of the negative reaction.

Photos showing the cafe’s breakfast offerings were flooded with promising comments to support Quiroga’s business.

“I saw your story on the news in Boston and I’m so sorry that people gave negativity to a simple and funny name,” one person wrote. “If we ever come to Connecticut, we’re going to have breakfast at the Woke!”

“This looks absolutely delicious,” one person commented below photos of the cafe’s pancakes. “I wish I lived closer. Congratulations on the new business and glad to see you. People give you the support you deserve.”

Others left encouraging reviews after dining at the cafe, while others expressed excitement at trying the food.

Quiroga saw the gruesome comments on a private city Facebook page. The altercation led to the site admin having to step in and warn against nasty comments

Quiroga explained that the Facebook competition did not represent the city of Coventry. Locals repeated their statement and didn’t seem to care about the name.

“When I hear ‘Woke’ as a breakfast restaurant, it just wakes me up, so personally I’m not offended,” resident Benjamin Kieso told the news outlet.

“It’s a memorable name,” added Brian Pope.