We officially have a brace. On Selection Sunday, which has meanwhile become a national holiday, we start our reporting with an immediate reaction to the field of the 68th
Here are my takeaways from the selection committee’s decisions.
The 1 line makes sense… for the most part.
The surprise of the committee was Houston, who just lost to Memphis in Sunday’s American Athletic Conference championship game, finished second overall in the tournament and positioned in the Midwest region. This means the Cougars were selected over Kansas, the #1 seed in the western region, and received potential regional treatment in Kansas City. The Jayhawks, meanwhile, have to go to Las Vegas in a region where UCLA is No. 2.
Kansas had 10 more Quad 1 wins than Houston in college basketball’s best conference, but the Cougars were No. 1 on the NET rankings. However, UCLA may not be as threatening with Jaylen Clark done for the season and Adem Bona struggling with an injury. I think Kansas and Alabama got the most manageable paths, and they could meet in the national championship game.
SEC Champion Alabama had earned first place overall, and the Crimson Tide could end up having a really clear path to the Final Four. At 29-5, Nate Oats’ group would face Maryland or West Virginia in the Round of 32, two capable teams but neither with the firepower of Alabama.
Considering Arizona, Baylor and Virginia as the other teams joining them in the region, the Pac-12 tournament-winning Wildcats look like the most dangerous team to get in the dance, but Tommy Lloyd’s side have a backcourt, which can be impermanent. Baylor’s defense is a concern while Virginia’s offense tends to go stone cold. The Crimson Tide got the top seed and best path in my opinion.
Big Ten champion Purdue has what I would call a manageable path, but a potential second-round tie against Memphis could result in a close game. A red-hot Marquette team, a Kansas State team with a duo in Keyontae Johnson, and a Duke team that I think is the most dangerous in the region offer serious challenges. The Boilers more than deserved a 1, their first in 27 years, but I think they have the hardest road ahead of them to a Final Four, fitting for being the last 1-seed.
The two seeds…
Arizona, Texas, Marquette and UCLA all earned their spots, with the Longhorns winning the Big 12 tournament and racking up 14 Quad 1 wins, and the Golden Eagles 28-6 winning the titles in a five-bid Big East. A story to watch on the 2 line: Shaka Smart’s Marquette team would be very comfortable moving up to the Sweet 16. With the Golden Eagles in the East Region, they could be back in 10 days at Madison Square Garden, where they won their first conference tournament title on Saturday night.
Let’s get the last four in and the first four out…
First of all, it was quite surprising to see that a North Carolina team that had only one Quad 1 win was only the third team in the field. The second big snack: Nevada ended a big night for the Mountain West. This conference bureau should be celebrating after receiving four bids for the NCAA tournament for a second year in a row. Steve Alford’s Wolfpack lost two Quad 3 games and will endure a three-game losing streak in the NCAA tournament — with all three losses for teams NET ranked 91 or lower.
The Pac-12 should be pleased, too, as the league put the team in the first four against Nevada — Bobby Hurley’s Arizona State Sun Devils were in the last four and will draw the Wolf Pack in Dayton. The other two in the bottom four were Mississippi State and Pitt, both of whom earned a slot.
The top four: Oklahoma State, Rutgers, North Carolina and Clemson. While the two leagues listed above should be happy, the ACC was punished for having such weak ground. Clemson didn’t belong in the field with two Quad 4 losses and another pair of Quad 3 losses, but not seeing a 23-win team from the conference is still something that would have been unthinkable in another era.
Why did Rutgers miss the tournament? Home losses to Nebraska and Michigan were tough, and a loss to Minnesota could be considered a backbreaker. The Scarlet Knights went 4-7 against Quad 1, and although they had a road win against Purdue, their losses washed it out. This is primarily a situation where a soft schedule without conferences has been penalized. Rutgers really didn’t do much to help themselves ahead of the Big Ten game.
As for the first team, Oklahoma State, it’s more heartbreak for Mike Boynton’s program because the Cowboys were eliminated from the tournament last year. I figured the committee would side with college basketball’s best conference — the Big 12 — especially since the Cowboys have two more Quad 1 wins and one Quad 3 loss than Nevada. Instead, it’s another sad selection Sunday in Stillwater.
Angry Special Offers?
Everyone loves the 5/12 games because it’s a big excitement zone so let’s go there.
In the southern region, the San Diego State/Charleston game is fascinating. Brian Dutcher and the veteran-core Aztecs are under intense pressure to win a tournament game after collapsing against Creighton last year. On the other hand, Pat Kelsey’s CAA Champion Cougars lead the nation with 31 wins and have lost just three times. Watch for Charleston to earn a win in the opening round.
The committee gave us a present with Jeremy Roach facing Max Abmas while Duke faces Oral Roberts. Abmas and the Eagles went to the Sweet 16 two years ago, so the ACC champion Blue Devils actually get a tougher test in the opening round than they did in the second round. The winner of this matchup goes to the Sweet 16.
In the West, it’s a great backcourt matchup as Aidan Mahaney and Saint Mary’s meet Ace Baldwin and VCU. give me the gaels And then in the Midwest, a fairly experienced Drake team that has a stud in Tucker DeVries could cause a handful of problems for Miami. With the status of big man Norchad Omier down for the Hurricanes due to an ankle injury, the Bulldogs really have a chance to advance. I challenge multiple 12’s to win.
Best opening game?
My favorite is clear: #4 seed UConn vs #13 seed Iona. It’s a dream for a Northeast basketball fan. It’s two characters on the sidelines in a coaching match, and perhaps Rick Pitino’s rumored return to the Big East comes as an early teaser of the conference. Year 5 at the helm, Dan Hurley led the Huskies to a 14-0 start and a 25-7 campaign, but Connecticut has yet to win an NCAA tournament game under that coaching staff. That’s the next step and Friday is crucial, but Pitino is one of the best coaches in the country. His Gaels will be ready.
Other first round games to circle on your bracket:
How about Maryland hitting West Virginia in an 8/9 game, with the winner likely getting Alabama? Bob Huggins had a successful year with a Mountaineers team that has a top-15 KenPom offense led by veteran guard Erik Stevenson. Kevin Willard is ahead of schedule at College Park with a strong defensive squad and a big guard in Jahmir Young. The pre-game press conferences will be popcorn worthy. No coach is holding back.
Top Trainer Matchups
Speaking of fiery coaches, how about Fran McCaffrey versus Bruce Pearl when a massive Iowa offense meets a top-class Auburn defense? This matchup hinges on the Tigers being able to disrupt the Hawkeyes and generate pace.
Then there’s the Bryce Hopkins Bowl when Kentucky meets Providence on Friday in Greensboro. Hopkins transferred from Lexington and ended up in Ed Cooley’s hands with the NCAA Tournament Friars after losing three straight games. Meanwhile, nobody puts more pressure on themselves than John Calipari to step into a big dance. After two seasons of disappointment, Oscar Tshiebwe and the Wildcats must have their way.
Sleepers, long shots and teams that might surprise
A potential long-term irritation? Keep an eye on UC Santa Barbara in 14th place as the Gauchos meet Baylor. UCSB has a top-75 offense but can tackle it at a slower pace. If they can get the bears to like a game, don’t be shocked if it’s a ball game. Another monitor? Matt Langel and Colgate as 15 seed against Texas. While the Longhorns are on a big high, the Raiders are really solid offensively and they’re another team that can give the Horns some trouble.
The 8 seeds I’m optimistic about? Penny Hardaway and Memphis, who could put Purdue into the second round. The Tigers are physical and Kendric Davis would be the best guard on the pitch. If Memphis can beat Dusty May and FAU, watch out.
Look out for Gonzaga for a deep NCAA tournament run. The Zags will certainly get past the Grand Canyon and possibly TCU by weekend two — although that’s going to be difficult. A Sweet 16 matchup with UCLA is on the table, but the Bruins are a bit battered and that’s more doable than you’d think. Could Drew Timme have a run up his sleeve?
Don’t fall asleep on Tom Izzo and Michigan State just yet. Sure, the Spartans had an odd season, but with Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard at the 7th place, Sparty gets a manageable 10-seed in USC and possibly a Marquette team that, at the end of the day, is still the third-youngest in college basketball. The Golden Eagles would be favored in this game but they don’t have a traditional center which has caused some problems for Sparty.
Indiana drew MAC champ Kent State, and the Hoosiers should be on high alert. The 28-6 Flashes challenged themselves in a non-conference game and came close to knocking out Gonzaga. Redshirt senior guard Sincere Carry is someone who seems poised to make his mark in March, averaging more than 17 points per game. The Hoosiers need Jalen Hood-Schifino to lead them into the backcourt and step up.
The under-the-radar first-round matchup: 7th-ranked Texas A&M vs. 10th-ranked Penn State. Wade Taylor IV vs. Jalen Pickett? Sign me up. These are two teams that, on their best days, are more dangerous than their home line and a reflection of the country in general. The Aggies deserved a better seed.
The 13 seeds to watch out for: Louisiana. The Ragin’ Cajuns are a dangerous force with a stud in Jordan Brown (19 PPG) and they’re getting Tennessee, which can get into offensive ruts and is shorthanded for the season with Zakai Zeigler.
The top four teams that could emerge from the tournament? Pitt. Jeff Capel has put together one of the best turnaround stories in college hoops. The Panthers have a dynamic duo in Blake Hinson and Jamarius Burton and will draw Mississippi State in Dayton. As good as the Bulldogs are defensively, they’re really struggling to score. Pitt is not a high-revenue team and has varied scoring sources.
My first good Final Four…
Alabama
Houston
gonzaga
duke
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