Two weeks before the most important COP since the Paris Agreement, humanity continues to go “off the road”: according to the UN, countries’ current commitments lead to a 2% reduction in emissions between 2019 and 2030, instead of 43%. It is recommended to limit heating to 1.5°C.
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That conclusion, noted in a report released Tuesday, shows that governments need to move from “small steps” to “big leaps” at COP28, said Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Climate Change (UNCAC).
This 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference from November 30th to December 12th in Dubai must be “a real turning point” because “we are off track” and “every fraction of a degree counts,” demanded Stiell in a video message.
“Inch-like progress will not be enough,” UN chief Antonio Guterres added in a statement. “The time is ripe for a supernova of climate ambition in every country, every city and every sector,” he added.
“Anyone who consciously denies the impacts of climate change is condemning Americans to an extremely dangerous future,” said US President Joe Biden, who announced billions of dollars in investments on Tuesday to make the US more resilient to the planet’s global warming.
The new report is the annual summary of the latest emissions reduction commitments – called “Nationally Determined Contribution” (NDC) – of the 195 signatories of the 2015 Paris Agreement, the first official assessment of which must be set at COP28 and, where possible, make the first corrections.
The report takes into account 20 new NDCs (unpublished or revised) submitted last year (Mexico, Turkey, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Norway, etc.), but not the updates submitted since October by the 27 European countries or Brazil.
Peak by 2025
The 2015 Paris Agreement sets the goal of limiting average global warming to “well below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels,” when humanity began to extensively exploit the fossil fuels responsible for greenhouse gas emissions, “and if possible at 1.5 °C”.
However, to have a 50% chance of containing global warming to 1.5°C, global emissions must fall by 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels, according to the latest IPCC report by experts commissioned by the United Nations Nations.
According to the IPCC, these emissions must peak by 2025 to limit warming not only to 1.5°C, but also to 2°C or 2.5°C.
In its latest report, the IPCC estimated the amount of greenhouse gases still needed to be emitted to reach 1.5°C of global warming, equivalent to about 12 years of current global emissions, at 500 gigatons (Gt) of CO2 equivalent .
According to a recent reassessment by scientists, this carbon budget would ultimately be only half that, 250 GtCO2e, or around six years.
The report, released Tuesday, “is consistent with last year’s findings and says that while emissions will no longer increase after 2030 compared to 2019, they still do not show the rapid decline that science says is necessary this decade.” holds,” emphasizes the UN Climate Commission.
In September, the first technical assessment of the Paris Agreement, conducted under the auspices of the UN Climate Action in preparation for the assessment negotiated by States at COP28, underscored the need to move away from fossil fuels, advance the use of renewable energy and unlock financial resources Mechanisms for transition and development.
This assessment of the Paris Agreement at COP28 will be an important prerequisite for the mandatory revision of the NDCs by 2025 and the COP30 planned in Brazil.
At COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, signatories to the agreement committed to reviewing the NDCs annually – rather than every five years – but only a minority of them have done so since then.