The Yankees’ 2022 postseason odyssey begins tonight as they host the Cleveland Guardians in Game 1 of the American League Division Series. New York achieved its first big goal of the campaign by conquering the division with 99 wins and giving them a bye for this round, while the 92-win Guardians defeated the Rays in a Wild Card Series showdown to earn their spot to back up. The real test begins today, when the Yankees’ season will be judged by their success in this playoff.
Gerrit Cole was named the starter of Game 1, a move that was always the logical but also the right decision. He’s still the ace of the Yankees and the best pitcher in baseball at the time. He endured a poor year by his high standards, going 13-8 in 33 starts with a 3.50 ERA (111 ERA+), 3.47 FIP and an MLB-leading 257 strikeouts in 200.2 innings to win Ron Guidry’s franchise Breaking a record of 248 in one season plays in his 1978 Cy Young Award-winning campaign.
Much of the trouble for Cole arose from an inability to make adjustments in the middle frame, resulting in a big inning that undid the work of an otherwise stellar outing. He struggled more than any pitcher with long ball (an MLB-leading 33 served on), often with runners. Most of those home runs came from fastballs catching too much of the plate as Cole tried to work his way back into the counts, or hanging sliders/cutters going back when his mechanics got a little off balance.
Luckily for Cole, he’s dominated the Guardians in recent matchups, including his 13-strikeout Jewel in Game 1 of the 2020 AL Wildcard Series, seven innings with one run versus 11 strikeouts in April 2021, and 6.2 scoreless with nine Strikeouts in April this year. So I expect he’ll base himself on what worked on those outings as he wants to do the same tonight.
Cal Quantrill takes on the Yankees ace in only his second taste of baseball after the season. (Coincidentally, his only other appearance during this Cole ALWCS gem in 2020 came when he was taping the finals for the Guardians.) Unlike the other two starters the Guardians named for this series – Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie – Quantrill is not a strikeout pitcher and instead focuses on inducing weak contact. Sitting in the top 30 percent of the league for walk rate, pursuit rate, average exit speed, and hard hit rate, Quantrill thrives on dominating both sides of the plate.
The 27-year-old right-hander throws a mid-90s sinker and a high-80s cutter together more than 80 percent of the time, so the Yankees hitters could try to chase one and eliminate the other. In his only start this season against the Bombers, Quantrill walked 6.1 innings, giving up three runs in six hits and one walk with just two strikeouts in a game that ended with the Yankees going with a Gleyber Torres-single walk-off . During the season, Quantrill went 15-5 in 32 starts with a 3.38 ERA (113 ERA+), 4.12 FIP and 128 strikeouts in 186.1 innings.
The Yankees named a strong lineup for their postseason opener, and it’s hard to say there are any surprises in the selection or order. Aaron Judge is starting out as he has for the past month, and there’s certainly a fear factor in Quantrill having to go head-to-head against the best hitter in baseball. Anthony Rizzo’s left batter in the two-hole breaks up a right-handed formation and is followed by a resurgent Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton. We’ve seen this pair carry the team into the playoffs before and they seem to be picking up steam at the perfect time.
Oswaldo Cabrera looked like a legitimate major league hitter as his reps increased and his sweet left swing was pocketed in fifth place. Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Jose Trevino and Harrison Bader round out the bottom end of the lineup and elite defensive contributions from Donaldson, Trevino and Bader could prove crucial against a Guardians offensive looking to save the to put the ball in play.
Cole meets an outgoing, low-noise Guardians lineup that lives and dies on the ball batted. Andrés Giménez (140 wRC+) and Steven Kwan (124 wRC+) are racquet-to-ball fiends, while racquets José Ramírez (139 wRC+) and Josh Naylor (117 wRC+) provide the pop. Naylor has hurt Cole the most in recent matchups with two home runs, so I’m expecting him to navigate around the first baseman while attacking the rest of the Cleveland order.
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location: Yankee Stadium – Bronx, NY
First pitch: 7:37 p.m. ET
TV broadcast: TBS
radio broadcast: WFAN 660/101.9, WADO 1380
online stream: DirecTV Stream (free trial), Sling TV (free trial)
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