For about six days, Ohio State’s chances of winning the College Football Playoff National Championship were as high as they had been all season. A 45-23 home loss to No. 2 Michigan on Nov. 26 began a week of devastation as coach Ryan Day and the Buckeyes saw they were missing another Big Ten championship shot after losing to the most hated Rival. At the time, it seemed that Ohio State would miss an opportunity to play for a national championship for the second year in a row.
But then the college football gods responded, as they have done so many times for the Buckeyes. The Utah team that Ohio State had faced the year before in a modern New Year’s Six epic beat USC in the Pac-12 championship game on Friday, December 2. That opened up a spot for Ohio State, then No. 5 in the CFP rankings, to move into the top four. From anticipation to devastation and now back with a renewed passion for chasing a title, Ohio State saw it all in about a week.
The Buckeyes were among the preseason favorites to win the national title thanks to the return of quarterback CJ Stroud and an offense that led video game numbers at the Rose Bowl with underclassmen. And while Ohio State isn’t favorite to win the national championship, or even favorite in their semifinal game against No. 1 Georgia, there’s plenty of reason to believe in this team’s chances of winning it all.
1. It has the offense of hitting someone
Let’s start with Ohio State’s best weapon: it’s the offensive. If it can score at Georgia, it can score at anyone. Aside from Tennessee, there is no other team on the Georgia roster that poses such a threat to Ohio State on Saturday night.
The Buckeyes have arguably better passing offense than the Vols — or at least deeper and more impressive wide receiver space for Georgia’s secondary to try to defend. Georgia faced a 1,000-yard receiver all year (Hyatt); Ohio State has a pair of 1,000-yard wideouts in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka. This is a passing attack that even Jaxon Smith-Njigba didn’t have for most of the season, and yet it remained one of the premier units in all of college football.
Of course, Georgia was impressive when Hendon Hooker, Jalin Hyatt, Cedric Tillman and the rest of the Tennessee offensive hit town on November 5th. The Bulldogs did a great job pressuring Hooker and limiting the deep routes’ ability to even develop and disallowing a 30+ yard single pass play. Hooker, who had been playing like a Heisman Trophy contender up to this point, had under 200 passing yards (5.9 yards per attempt), zero touchdowns and was picked off by Kelee Ringo on a pass into the end zone late in the first half .
For the past two years, however, Stroud has been one of college football’s elite passers, and he has the potential to become a legendary Buckeye this postseason. Stroud has already accomplished so much in his short tenure as a starter at Ohio State: He’s a two-time Heisman Trophy finalist, a two-time Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year, and led the nation in pass efficiency and touchdown passes in 2022 after 2021 in the top three nationally in both categories. Starting 21-3, he has a chance to turn all the frustrations of a back-to-back loss to Michigan into a career-defining moment in the college football playoffs.
While Georgia’s defense dominated against Hendon Hooker and swallowed Oregon quarterback Bo Nix, there’s another level of quarterback at the college level, and the Bulldogs will see it Saturday night.
2. Get rid of the toughest opponent
Ohio State’s title chances have a second life, but they may be shattered thanks to their semifinal opponents: a Georgia team looking to cement their status as a dynasty with a second straight national championship. Luckily for Ohio State, talent margins are slim compared to the highly talented Bulldogs, and the Buckeyes can increase their chances of winning a national championship by winning this game.
Georgia and Ohio State are the #2 and #3 most talented teams, respectively, according to the 247Sports Team Talent Composite. Georgia has 15 five-star prospects and 53 four-star prospects, while Ohio State has 14 five-star prospects and has 52 potential four-star companies. And while Georgia has an advantage in terms of overall team talent, the average rating per player is 93.37 for Georgia and 92.82 for Ohio State.
If Ohio State beats Georgia, it becomes the new betting favorite to win the national championship. There is, of course, the potential for a rematch against the Michigan team, who have had the Buckeyes number for the past two seasons. Still, the performance metrics would suggest Day’s squad has the upper hand in the title game.
Big or small, Georgia has a talent advantage over every other opponent in the field. When considering Ohio State’s odds of winning it all, the conversation has to start with beating the Bulldogs. In this sense …
3. A rare underdog position
While Day and Stroud may feel some pressure on the bigger picture after a second loss to Michigan, the Buckeyes as a whole should be loose. This is the first time all season that Ohio State has gone into a game as an underdog. A loss would be disappointing but wouldn’t bring the added sting of an unexpected loss.
There’s also some history at play here. Ohio State jumped into the college football playoffs at the last minute in 2014, earning fourth place in a showdown with an SEC champion in Alabama. Despite favoring the Crimson Tide, the Buckeyes played a spoiler behind an offensive tackle that continued in the College Football Playoff National Championship against Oregon. Just like the 2022 roster, these title-winning Buckeyes had a handful of future pros and could play with a chip on their shoulder despite being one of the most talented teams in the country.
The Atlanta environment only adds to the spoiler game experience. That could allow an Ohio State team that’s been playing under the pressure of the title fight all year to finally be the looser, looser team at pivotal moments of this New Year’s Eve showdown.