With the 86th Masters fast approaching, the key question on everyone’s mind in the golfing world is the same: who do you want to win at the Augusta National? With an enormous field featuring most of the best pros and some of the best amateurs in the world, the first Major of 2022 should be an epic ride from Thursday’s first round.
This year’s Masters is as open as any in recent memory. There are no single-digit favorites this time around, and no one has emerged as the player to hit 72+ holes. The two hottest players in the world — Cameron Smith and Scottie Scheffler — are both nice picks but aren’t considered heavyweight favorites in Augusta. Conversely, many of the world’s top stars have yet to win in 2022 and some of them have a shady history with this course.
Then there is the Tiger Woods puzzle. What do you do with a five-time Masters winner who hasn’t played an official event in 17 months, but perhaps knows the course better than anyone who’s ever played it? Woods hinted he will indeed serve alongside Louis Oosthuizen and Joaquin Niemann on Thursday morning and the potential results for him could be greater than anyone else in the field.
Adding it all up, it looks like we’re in for a wild Masters week full of unexpected twists and turns, but also with plenty of familiar names at the top of the leaderboard.
So what’s going to happen in Augusta this week? Let’s take a look at a whole host of predictions and tips from our CBS Sports experts as we attempt to predict who will win – and what will happen – at the world’s most prestigious golf tournament. Check out a full set of 2022 Masters odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
2022 Masters Expert Tips, Predictions
Kyle Porter, golf author
Winner – Justin Thomas (12-1): I have some conflicting feelings about JT at Augusta National where He’s clearly not putting the ball well. However, in the weeks leading up to this one, it felt (and statistically looked) like he was working toward a massive win. The same could have been said in the first few rounds at last year’s Masters, before an 8 on par-5 13 led to 75 and ruined his chances of winning. His driving can get stubborn at times so the big number is always a problem, but if the weather turns a little choppy later this week – and it could – Thomas proved at the Players Championship that he probably has more game than anyone until then.
Sleeper – Si Woo Kim (65-1): There are a few things I’m loving about Kim this week. The first is that he has previously shown a propensity to win big events (he dominated the 2017 Players), and the second is that he plays Augusta National with incredible restraint. Kim has made four straight cuts here, including three top 25s and a sneaky T12 in 2021 while putting his 3-wood for part of the tournament. There are a handful of players at 50-1 or higher (including Adam Scott and Russell Henley) that stand out, but Kim is my favorite of the bunch.
Top 10 Castle – Brooks Koepka: There’s a lot to like about Koepka this week. He plays good golf (three top 20s in his last four starts). He seems the healthiest he has been in a long time (certainly healthier than last year when he climbed the hill to No. 13 after a knee problem). And of course the fact that in major championships he’s just wrecking, with 12 (12!) top 10 finishes in his last 16 starts in the four biggest events.
Star Who Definitely Won’t Win – Rory McIlroy: It pains me to say it, but McIlroy has struggled with his irons more than someone looking to win at Augusta National. His top 10 record at the event is tremendous (no one has more than their six in the last 10 years), but he has yet to properly execute what he described earlier this week as a “negative” game plan that has seen him struggle keeps away, takes full advantage of the par 5 and hits everything needle-high. I’d love to see that this week, but even last week at the Texas Open he struggled with distance control, which didn’t inspire much optimism.
Surprise Prediction – Tiger Woods makes the cut: Perhaps three weeks or two months ago this would be more surprising than after seeing how fit and healthy Woods looked earlier in the week. Still, it should be utterly amazing when someone who nearly lost a leg 14 months ago plays in the world’s most prestigious golf tournament over the weekend.
Lowest lap: 65 (-7)
Winning Result: 275 (-13)
Sunday result of the winner: 69 (-3)
Chip Patterson, writer
Winner – Xander Schauffele (20-1): If he stays true to form, Schauffele will at least be in the mix to win, and if you’re consistently leading to within a handful of shots, chances are the tournament will eventually break your way. Schauffele’s last two starts at Augusta in April were T2 and T3, falling just short of Hideki Matsuyama last year, in part due to splashing his drive on the par-3 16th. He can play this course well and I expect him to do that given his recent form and that’s great value for a player with a high level of performance in this tournament.
Sleeper – Kevin Kisner (100-1): Seeing Kisner put on a strong performance in a matchplay event doesn’t come as a huge surprise. The WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play framed three of Kisner’s top five finishes (one win, two runners-up), but it’s the other results this year that keep me intrigued by his chances. He started the year with consecutive top 10 finishes in Hawaii and after a shaky few weeks re-emerged as a contender on The Players where he finished fourth solo. Competing here would admittedly be a huge jump from his Masters finishes (two missed curts and no top 20 finishes in six starts), but the Aiken, South Carolina native and former Georgia Bulldogs golfer could quickly become a favorite, if he gets together a few good rounds.
Top 10 Castle – Jon Rahm: No betting favorite has won the Masters since Tiger in 2005, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t line up with Rahm as the safest bet to finish on the front page of the leaderboard. He has had four top 10 finishes in his last four Masters starts and earlier this year was on a run that included three top 10 finishes in four starts. Such is the consistency at Rahm that even if he has a terrible lap, you still have a chance for him to make a top-10 by bottoming out on a weekend early-morning lap.
Star Who Definitely Won’t Win – Dustin Johnson: The 2020 Masters champion returned to the estate five months later and missed the cut in 2021, and that was the first of five missed cuts in his last 20 starts. I don’t expect DJ to miss the cut again, but as of early last year he’s been a star who’s been good but not excellent. In fact, winning the master usually requires excellence and if he can draw on that as a DJ it would be a change of shape based on recent results.
Surprise prediction – Tony Finau finishes in the top 10: Why is it a surprising prediction that someone with three top-10 finishes in their last four Masters starts could do so again? Well, if you haven’t checked in with Big Tone lately, things have gone in the wrong direction. In nine starts since early 2022, Finau has only finished in the top 20 once (a T19 in Hawaii in early January) and missed the cut three times. His world rankings reached No. 9 after beating Cam Smith in a play-off at the Northern Trust last August but has since slipped to No. 22. My surprising prediction is that particular spot – where he repositioned his ankle and shot a 68 the next day back in 2018 – brings in a special performance from Finau.
Lowest lap: 63 (-9)
Winning Result: 275 (-13)
Sunday result of the winner: 69 (-3)
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Kyle Boone, writer
Winner – Collin Morikawa (20-1): Two-time major champion, still 25 years old, one of golf’s best and most consistent balls. What’s not to like here, especially at 20-1? His putting has also improved significantly and from tee to green he’s one of the best on the PGA Tour. Completing the third stage of the career grand slam at his age would put him in thinner air.
Sleeper – Tiger Woods (50-1): It’s been well over a year since Tiger played at a real event, so I wouldn’t empty the bank here just because Woods’ odds of winning a Masters are so high. He could easily be back home by Saturday. But…it’s Tiger…at 50-1. And he’s apparently been looking sharp in the practice rounds. There are probably worse, less fun ways to bet money than GOAT
Top 10 Castle – Jordan Spieth: With two top-three finishes in his last four Masters games and five in his career, Spieth is almost always in the mix at Augusta National, having never missed a cut. His last few events have largely kept the hype train away from his entry this year, but Spieth in Augusta National is Spieth in Augusta National – he should be in the hunt to the end.
Star Who Definitely Won’t Win – Rory McIlroy: Rory’s streak at Augusta National and his recent games this season suggest he could be in the thick of things this weekend, which is sometimes exactly the point where he tends to underperform. Physically, few are quite as gifted and able to complete the course, but he never quite cracked the Masters code and this week doesn’t feel like he does.
Surprise Prediction – Tiger Finishes in Top 25: Yes, yes, I know he hasn’t played on the PGA Tour in over a year. And going from training and practice rounds to four days of grinding in Augusta is quite a chore. But Tiger has proved doubters wrong before and I really don’t think he would rush back onto golf’s greatest stage just to prove he’s sane with a great performance. I think he wants to prove that he and his game are at a healthy point.
Lowest lap: 65 (-7)
Winning Result: 277 (-10)
Sunday result of the winner: 67 (-5)