NFL free agency has been running for six days now, and we’ve seen many drafting websites take a week off to see how things are going in this fast-paced part of the off-season. There are still sites dedicated to a few weekly trial projects, but the collective whole was easier than most weeks.
There were two styles of ostensible drafter this week: an analyst who started looking into options at the top of the draft and an analyst who presented unusual scenarios, either because they lacked knowledge of the Detroit Lions or because they wanted to stay. outside.
That being said, let’s start with the explorers and then move on to the unusual.
Lions Pick #2: Scenario 1
Jacksonville takes Aidan Hutchinson (EDGE, Michigan) first overall as the Lions pick…
Last week we saw a surge in ties between the Lions and Hamilton, but things are back to normal. As this scenario looks more and more like a real possibility, most indicators indicate that the Lions are considering these players and I don’t expect a consensus on which one is the favorite.
Scenario 2
Jacksonville does NOT take Hutchinson first overall and the Lions pick…
As with most offseasons, if Hutchinson is available, most believe he will be selected. There will always be analysts who will favor the other player more – Hamilton is Farrar’s best player, and Sanchez thinks the Lions can’t wait to get a quarterback – but overall the alignment between Hutchinson and decision makers on and off the field its outside seems too perfect fit.
Additional note: I see fewer and fewer fake drafts when Willis doesn’t make the top 10 and he starts to separate from the rest of the pack.
Scenario 3
These analysts think that the Lions should take… (*check notes*)… offensive moves.
- Ikem EkwonuOT, NC – mocked by Sam Farmer (LA Times), Mike Renner (PFF)
- Evan NealOT, Alabama – mocked by Blake Brockermeyer (247 Sports)
Okay, let’s try to follow the logic here.
One taunt suggests that the Lions might insert their prospective player “in the right tackle against Penea Sewell.” To be clear, Sewell is playing with a right tackle and Taylor Decker exists, which makes this assumption odd. But, hey, maybe they’re referring to a forward-looking statement in their statement – as are the other two analysts.
Analyst 2 suggests using their projected elite offensive tackle on defense – I’ll pause for a minute so you can catch your breath after reviewing a scenario in which the Lions are second overall – and then replacing Decker in the future. To be clear, Decker is signed for the 2024 season – yes, that’s the next three seasons – and he has $24.25 million in guaranteed money left.
The latest analyst suggests the Lions have “a lot of options” to consider with Decker, which could lead to them sketching out his offensive approach. First, he points out that the Lions should consider the fact that “Decker’s bonus is due out soon,” but the problem is that there won’t be any bonuses anytime soon. His base guarantees have already been activated, his prorated bonus has been paid out, and the next bonus scheduled is a $250,000 bonus for camp training. He then suggests that the Lions could “restructure the deal with Decker, which means he’ll be there for another two or three years,” but again, as we’ve established earlier, he’s already signed for another three years. Or maybe they could “undercut” it, which, as noted earlier, would cost $24.25 million. And finally, they could “trade it”, which would cost $14.1 million. Trading Decker is the only scenario proposed where the Lions don’t lose money, but are they considering doing so just to pick his replacement? This would surprise me.
Choice number 32.
Choice #32
Kenny PickettQB Pittsburgh – Ryan Wilson (CBS Sports)
Matt CorralQB, Mississippi – Luke Easterling (Draft Wire)
Trade up to No. 26: Drake LondonWR, USC – Cam Mellor (Pro Football Network)
Trailon BurksWR, Arkansas – Mike Renner (PFF)
Chris OlavWR, Ohio State – Oliver Hodgkinson (Pro Football Network)
Jahan DotsonWR, Penn State – Scott Baer (AtlantaFalcons.com), Staff (Drafttek)
Devonte WyattDT, Georgia – Brian Bosarge (Draft Countdown)
George KarlaftisEDGE, Purdue – Doug Farrar (Touchdown Wire)
Nakobe DeanLB, Georgia – Trevor Sikkema (PFF), Keith Sanchez (The Draft Network), Chris Trapasso (CBS Sports), Sam Farmer (LA Times)
Sin LewisS, Georgia – Josh Edwards (CBS Sports)
Not much has changed in this selection, because this selection of players is constant every week. Some analysts believe the Lions will get a quarterback, while overall first-round quarterback predictions continue to dwindle as NFL teams shuffle quarterbacks between teams during free agency. The collection of wide receivers is always there, though it’s surprising to see Burks and London (even in a swap scenario) at this stage. Defensively, Georgia continues to dominate at all three levels, and the Lions’ strong presence at Georgia’s Pro Day this week has certainly not slowed that trend down.
Personally, I would have a hard time getting past Burks or London, but Dean, who was the most derided player in this pick this week, would be exciting too.
Choose No. 34
Boy MeifEDGE, MN – Keith Sanchez (The Draft Network)
Duxton HillS/DB Michigan – Ryan Wilson (CBS Sports)
Only a handful of impersonators made it into the 2nd round this week, and Sanchez finally gave the Lions the lead after drafting Willis and Dean in the first round. Meanwhile, Wilson also gave the Lions a quarterback – No. 32 Pickett – and a pair of Michigan defensemen in Hutchinson and Hill.
Simulation project spotlight
In this section, I usually go into detail on one dummy draft, and this week I’m taking a look at the dummy draft from Buccaneers.com’s Scott Smith, who had not one, but two first-round trades from Detroit.
Let’s set the table first. Detroit currently has five of the first 100 draft picks: Nos. 2, 32, 34, 66, and 97.
Smith’s scenario has Hutchinson off the board first and the Lions decide to make a deal with Seattle so the Seahawks can capture Willis. The compensation for this trade results in the Lions acquiring picks #9, #41 and the first rounder of 2023. Let’s not worry about who Smith picks at No. 9 in the Lions and instead focus on acquisitions in the draft.
At pick No. 32, Smith again makes the Lions trade, this time giving the pick to the Indianapolis Colts, who also take a quarterback: Corral. The Lions are giving up the 32nd pick and the 2023 fourth round to get the 42nd and 82nd picks.
So let’s recap. The lions started with spades 2, 32, 34, 66 and 97then made two trades and ended up with spades 9, 34, 41, 42, 66, 82 and 97together with 2023 first round. So the Lions lose a few spots to both first-round picks, but they end up with seven top-100 picks (instead of five) and another 2023 first-round pick, giving them just three spots in the draft next year.
I think Lions general manager Brad Holmes will accept these results.