Happy election year! Yes, I know and I hear you: “not yet!”
The average length of minority government in Canada is about 20 months. This liberal minority government is now in its second year and there are many reasons to believe it will be no exception, making 2023 an election year in Canada.
A by-election is an opportunity to send a message.
Justin Trudeau faces a peculiar political beast in the person of Pierre Poilievre.
He despises traditional media and generally refuses to be interviewed.
He’s second to none in his use of social media, but that’s clearly not enough for him.
A beating for Poilievre!
On Monday, the Liberals comfortably beat the Conservatives with more than 50% of the vote in the Mississauga-Lakeshore by-election. A significant increase in their score compared to the 2021 election.
The Greater Toronto Area has about 50 seats in the House of Commons.
Its importance is paramount in federal elections. Mississauga-Lakeshore is a barometer county that switches to the conservative side when that party wins an election.
The message was very clear: Poilievre’s method doesn’t work.
- Listen to Lisée – Mulcair’s meeting with Richard Martineau live every day at 8:50 am. above QUB radio :
Singh changes his mind
There was bad news for the NDP with this result as well.
The Liberals’ gains were almost entirely at the expense of Jagmeet Singh’s team.
His deal with Trudeau seems damaging, and that’s understandable.
Faced with an ultra-conservative opponent, many progressives seem willing to turn a blind eye and vote for Trudeau rather than risk Poilievre’s election.
It is therefore hardly surprising that immediately after this by-election, Singh threatened to vote against Trudeau despite her approval, citing his inaction on the health record.
Brilliant punch to reassert yourself, but also a sword punch in the water.
Trudeau will always have the block backing him as Blanchet is absolutely unwilling to go to an election.
In the end, Trudeau will decide
Anyhow, knowing them well, it’s not Trudeau’s or his advisers’ style to wait until you’re overthrown to go to an election.
It is Trudeau who decides when the next election will be held.
Trudeau is in his eighth year in office and knows he has an “expiry date” tattooed on his forehead.
Canadians don’t like leaving their eggs in one basket for too long.
When Trudeau hesitates, it’s the normal desire for variety that runs the risk of defeating him, more than anything else.
- Listen to Lisée – Mulcair’s meeting with Richard Martineau live every day at 8:50 am. above QUB radio :
A chance for Legault
Trudeau corrected Doug Ford regarding the use of the regardless clause. He doesn’t dare to do the same with Legault.
Ford represents exactly what Trudeau needs to fight in Toronto.
For Legault, this is a golden opportunity to share his files, as Trudeau will not pick a fight with him.
Quebec’s 68 seats, along with Toronto’s, are key to the majority victory Trudeau desired!
Don’t blame me for predicting it!
In the meantime, I wish you all a Happy New Year 2023.
