It’s been quite a journey, but on Monday we will finally see the end of the 2022 college football season. The most important game of the campaign takes center stage as we crown a national champion at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. There, the #1 Georgia Bulldogs, the defending champions, will take on the Cinderella story of the 2022 season, the #3 TCU Horned Frogs in the College Football Playoff National Championship
Georgia, who will be playing for their third national title in the last six seasons, should be here. It was one of the preseason favorites to win the SEC, make the CFP and possibly win the national title. TCU, on the other hand, shouldn’t really be here. The Frogs went 5-7 last year and fired the most successful coach in program history, Gary Patterson. The expectations in the pre-season were not high for this team either; Big 12 media picked the Frogs seventh under first-year coach Sonny Dykes, who crossed the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex from rival SMU to take the job.
Instead, TCU reached the Big 12 Championship Game with an unbeaten record and were selected to the CFP despite narrowly losing to Kansas State in that matchup. TCU was then more than a touchdown underdog to No. 2 Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl semifinals, but still knocked out the Wolverines 51-45 to continue their Cinderella story. Now the frogs get another chance to shock the world.
Will TCU be the biggest surprise champion of modern times? Will Georgia restore order and become the first program to win consecutive national titles since Alabama did so in 2010 and 2011? We’ll find out for sure on Monday evening. Right now we can only speculate, so we’re speculating like crazy.
National Championship: (1) Georgia vs. (3) TCU
Featured Game | Georgia Bulldogs vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Spread: I can not lie. It’s scary to bet against TCU. I’ve said to myself several times this season, ‘This is it. This is the time when this magical ride comes to an end. This is when we need to let the frogs fade.” I’ve been wrong every time, and believe me, I’m not one of the many people looking for reasons to write TCU off all season. I was excited about the Frogs coming into the season and my impression of them only got better after their hot start.
But nobody saw that coming. TCU plays spoilers in the Big 12? Secure. But that’s all, isn’t it? After a while I told myself the frogs could win the conference but lose a game or two in the process. So now I’m a bit shocked. From a pure power rating standpoint, Georgia is the smarter game at anything under two touchdowns, but TCU has defied the odds all season. I’m not ready to take action against them now.
Still, there are concerns about the matchup for TCU, and much of that will depend on the status of Georgia tight end Darnell Washington. While NFL scouts drool over what Washington could become as a pass catcher given his size and athleticism, what he already is is a formidable blocker in the running game. He’s essentially an extra tackle in Georgia’s rushing attack. TCU’s 3-3-5 defense is more vulnerable against teams running two tight end sets. If Georgia has Washington and Brock Bowers available on Monday, it will be a complex issue for Joe Gillespie and the TCU defense to solve. Michigan struggled after losing Luke Schoonmaker early in the Fiesta Bowl as they were already shorthanded at the tight end.
On the other hand, this Georgia defense is nowhere near as dominant as last year’s team. This is especially true when it comes to getting after the QB. TCU’s Max Duggan is often his worst enemy when it comes to taking sacks, but we’ve seen Georgia’s secondary struggle against good passing attacks this season. TCU may not have Ohio State’s overall depth at receiver, but Quentin Johnston, Derius Davis and Taye Barber are a powerful trio. I don’t know if the TCU defense will get enough stops to win the game, but offensively the Frogs should be able to rack up enough points to keep things to a respectable minimum. Selection: TCU +12.5
In total: For years we’ve been told, “Defense wins championships.” That’s not true – at least not on the level we’ve been led to believe. These days, great defense helps you stand out from the crowd, but elite offense is what wins championships. Just look at the national title winners of the CFP era. While last year’s Georgia team was known for their global defense, they also ranked near or at the top of any meaningful statistic on offense. Alabama, Clemson and LSU also won it all, with teams full of first-round picks at quarterback and wide receiver. In 2014, Ohio State was reduced to its third-line QB, but even Cardale Jones ended up in the NFL after being surrounded by NFL talent on that offense.
Let’s also look at the championship games during the playoff era. Those eight title games have averaged 64.5 points and only two have ended with less than 60 total points. One was Alabama’s 26-23 overtime win over Georgia in 2018 and the other was Georgia’s 33-18 win over Alabama last season. Yes, Georgia played in both games, but if Crimson Tide wide receiver Jameson Williams hadn’t been injured last year, this game could have been a higher-scoring affair.
If this game is a blowout, it’s likely to end under the total. We’ve seen Georgia jump out to big leads and sit on the ball many times, but like I said before, I don’t think this will be a blowout. It might not be as close as the two semis, but I don’t think either team will win by less than 31 points, which makes the over attractive. Tip: Over 62.5
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